The paper proposes a method to improve random forest classification accuracy by weighting trees based on their decision path reliability.
problem Random forests' uniform voting fails to correct errors in regions where incorrect tree representations outnumber correct ones.
method The paper introduces using the structural pattern of each tree's decision path as an instance-adaptive reliability signal to identify and weight more reliable trees.
result Using the proposed method yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks.
This paper considers the classification of linear subspaces with mismatched classifiers. In particular, we assume a model where one observes signals in the presence of isotropic Gaussian noise and the distribution of the signals conditioned on a given class is Gaussian with a zero mean and a low-rank covariance matrix.…
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.
Paper improves signal proportion estimation by accounting for variable dependence.
problem Traditional estimators assume independence, limiting applicability in real-world scenarios.
method Integrates arbitrary covariance dependence information using principal factor approximation.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art estimators in accuracy and detection of weaker signals.
Adaptive sampling results in dramatic improvements in the recovery of sparse signals in white Gaussian noise. A sequential adaptive sampling-and-refinement procedure called Distilled Sensing (DS) is proposed and analyzed. DS is a form of multi-stage experimental design and testing. Because of the adaptive nature of the…
This paper studies the classification of high-dimensional Gaussian signals from low-dimensional noisy, linear measurements. In particular, it provides upper bounds (sufficient conditions) on the number of measurements required to drive the probability of misclassification to zero in the low-noise regime, both for rando…
This paper improves STL inference reliability under covariate shift.
problem Ensuring correct STL formulas in real-world settings with distribution shift.
method Proposes a conformalized STL inference framework that addresses covariate shift.
result Significantly improves symbolic learning reliability at deployment time.
Neural process model improves real-time condition monitoring signal prediction.
problem Real-time adaptation for complex condition monitoring signals.
method Label-aware neural processes encoding and reconstruction.
result Advantages in real-time adaptation, enhanced signal prediction with uncertainty quantification, and joint prediction for labels and signals.
New method uses model comparison signals to improve LLM evaluation accuracy.
problem Limited benchmark sizes and model stochasticity in evaluating LLMs' mathematical reasoning.
method Combines standard labeled outcomes with model comparison signals to design a statistically efficient evaluation framework.
result Semiparametric estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and substantially improves ranking accuracy.
Study on limits of LLM-based multi-agent planning reliability.
problem Reliability limits of LLM-based multi-agent planning.
method Modeling LLM-based multi-agent architecture as a decision network, showing dominance by centralized Bayes decision maker.
result Optimizing multi-agent directed acyclic graphs under communication budget is equivalent to choosing a constrained experiment.
We consider the problems of detection and localization of a contiguous block of weak activation in a large matrix, from a small number of noisy, possibly adaptive, compressive (linear) measurements. This is closely related to the problem of compressed sensing, where the task is to estimate a sparse vector using a small…
We consider the problem of detecting whether a tensor signal having many missing entities lies within a given low dimensional Kronecker-Structured (KS) subspace. This is a matched subspace detection problem. Tensor matched subspace detection problem is more challenging because of the intertwined signal dimensions. We s…
How does one find dimensions in multivariate data that are reliably expressed across repetitions? For example, in a brain imaging study one may want to identify combinations of neural signals that are reliably expressed across multiple trials or subjects. For a behavioral assessment with multiple ratings, one may want …
Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TCPFN) for industrial time series causal discovery
problem Estimating causal effects in industrial time series
method Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks
result Zero-shot causal discovery with explicit reliability signals
New method improves reliability of selecting individuals based on predicted treatment effects.
problem Reliability of selecting individuals based on predicted conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is unreliable.
method Denoised Conformal Alignment, combining proxy errors, variance estimation, and Benjamini-Hochberg selection.
result Significantly improved power in selecting individuals while maintaining false discovery rate control.
Improved DL models robust against adversarial attacks for wireless signal classification.
problem Adversarial attacks on deep learning-based wireless signal classifiers.
method Knowledge distillation and network pruning followed by adversarial training.
result Proposed models achieve better robustness and higher accuracy than standard models.
Since machine learning models have been applied to neuroimaging data, researchers have drawn conclusions from the derived weight maps. In particular, weight maps of classifiers between two conditions are often described as a proxy for the underlying signal differences between the conditions. Recent studies have however…
In the co-sparse analysis model a set of filters is applied to a signal out of the signal class of interest yielding sparse filter responses. As such, it may serve as a prior in inverse problems, or for structural analysis of signals that are known to belong to the signal class. The more the model is adapted to the cla…
Early stopping methods reduce unnecessary reasoning steps in LLMs by monitoring uncertainty signals.
problem LLMs sometimes generate unnecessary reasoning steps, especially under uncertainty.
method Statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation.
result Uncertainty-aware early stopping improves efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, especially in math reasoning.
Paper predicts interference for better LA in URLLC.
problem Improving LA for URLLC with strict latency and reliability.
method Exploits time correlation of interference for prediction.
result Predicted interference improves LA for URLLC.
A new model classifies lightning signals more accurately across different scales.
problem Classifying VLF lightning transients to reduce interference and improve navigation system reliability.
method Introduces a multi-scale residual transformer (MRTransformer) to classify lightning signals.
result Achieved 90% accuracy in lightning signal classification.
This thesis enhances ML reliability by selectively abstaining from predictions when uncertain.
problem Improving reliability in machine learning systems, especially in high-stakes domains.
method Exploiting uncertainty signals from training trajectories to develop lightweight, post-hoc abstention methods compatible with differential privacy.
result A robust trajectory-based approach to selective prediction that maintains high accuracy under privacy noise.
Suitability filter detects model performance degradation in real-world deployment.
problem Ensuring model reliability in safety-critical domains without access to ground truth labels.
method Uses suitability signals to evaluate classifier performance on unlabeled user data.
result The suitability filter reliably detects performance deviations due to covariate shift.
The paper uses conformal prediction to detect railway signals with confidence.
problem Deploying deep learning models in certified systems requires accurate uncertainty estimates.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and risk control to detect railway signals.
result The conformal prediction framework provides reliable and trustworthy uncertainty estimates for model performance.
Robot motions in the presence of humans should not only be feasible and safe, but also conform to human preferences. This, however, requires user feedback on the robot's behavior. In this work, we propose a novel approach to leverage the user's brain signals as a feedback modality in order to decode the judgment of rob…
New model predicts links in community-based networks robustly.
problem Link prediction in community-based networks with local clustering errors.
method Markov Stochastic Block Model (MSBM) with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) predictions.
result Misclassification error decays exponentially with relevant signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).
Study detects signals in spiked Wigner models using log likelihood ratio.
problem Detecting signals in rank-one spiked Wigner models with non-Gaussian noise.
method Proved asymptotic normality of log likelihood ratio and computed error thresholds.
result Optimal signal-to-noise ratio threshold for reliable detection.
Prefix consistency improves model reliability by weighting answers based on their reproducibility.
problem Improving the reliability of large language models' reasoning traces.
method Use prefix consistency to weight candidate answers based on their reproducibility during regeneration.
result Prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor, reaching Standard MV plateau accuracy with up to 21x fewer tokens.
The paper presents a novel approach of spoofing wireless signals by using a general adversarial network (GAN) to generate and transmit synthetic signals that cannot be reliably distinguished from intended signals. It is of paramount importance to authenticate wireless signals at the PHY layer before they proceed throug…
Study reveals limits of PLS in multi-modal learning with correlated signals.
problem Understanding PLS performance in multi-modal learning with correlated signals.
method Random matrix theory analysis of spiked cross-covariance models.
result Identifies SNR and correlation regimes where PLS fails to recover any signal.
Devising indicative evaluation metrics for the image generation task remains an open problem. The most widely used metric for measuring the similarity between real and generated images has been the Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) score. Because it does not differentiate the fidelity and diversity aspects of the genera…
DUPLE tackles cross-deployment recognition in fiber-optic perimeter security with meta-learning.
problem Cross-deployment recognition challenges in fiber-optic perimeter security due to label scarcity and distribution shifts.
method DUPLE employs statistically guided meta-learning to enhance recognition robustness across unseen deployments.
result DUPLE consistently outperforms traditional and meta-learning baselines in cross-deployment DFOS benchmarks.
Proposes a method to quantify the reliability of salient regions in deep learning models using p-values.
problem Difficulty in assessing the reliability of saliency maps generated by deep learning models.
method Proposes a selective inference framework to quantify the reliability of salient regions as selected hypotheses by deep learning models.
result The method can provably control the probability of false positive detections of salient regions.
Attention mechanism combines bottom-up and top-down signals in neural networks.
problem Combining robust perception with bottom-up and top-down signals.
method Attention mechanism over modulated recurrent neural networks.
result Bidirectional information flow leads to improved performance in various tasks.
Proposes efficient calibration for indoor localization models.
problem Calibration data scarcity in wireless indoor localization.
method Uses synthetic labels and prediction sets to fine-tune a predictor and estimate bias.
result Yields rigorous coverage guarantees for prediction sets.
Background: Fluctuating hearing loss is characteristic of Meniere's Disease (MD) during acute episodes. However, no reliable audiometric hallmarks are available for counselling the hearing recovery possibility. Aims/Objectives: To find parameters for predicting MD hearing outcomes. Material and Methods: We applied mach…
AURA: Adaptive Uncertainty-aware Refinement for LLM-as-a-Judge Auditing
problem Auditing LLM-as-a-Judge decisions
method Adaptive uncertainty-aware refinement
result Human-consistent signal learning and evidence propagation
FinTradeBench benchmarks LLMs for financial reasoning combining company fundamentals and market signals.
problem Challenges in evaluating financial reasoning models for LLMs.
method Developed a benchmark integrating company fundamentals and trading signals, using a calibration-then-scaling framework.
result Clear performance gap between LLMs, retrieval improves reasoning over textual fundamentals but not trading signals.
PCA++ improves robustness to background noise in contrastive learning.
problem Recovering shared signal subspaces from positive pairs in high-dimensional data with structured background noise.
method PCA++ uses hard uniformity-constrained contrastive learning to enforce identity covariance on projected features.
result PCA++ outperforms standard PCA and alignment-only PCA+ in simulations and real-world datasets.
A new method enhances signal recovery with FDR control.
problem Challenging signal recovery in compressive sensing.
method Knockoff-guided compressive sensing framework with FDR control.
result Guaranteed FDR control leads to more accurate signal reconstruction.
Heart rate estimation from electrocardiogram signals is very important for the early detection of cardiovascular diseases. However, due to large individual differences and varying electrocardiogram signal quality, there does not exist a single reliable estimation algorithm that works well on all subjects. Every algorit…
We consider the weak detection problem in a rank-one spiked Wigner data matrix where the signal-to-noise ratio is small so that reliable detection is impossible. We propose a hypothesis test on the presence of the signal by utilizing the linear spectral statistics of the data matrix. The test is data-driven and does no…
This paper explores the use of ambient radio frequency (RF) signals for human presence detection through deep learning. Using WiFi signal as an example, we demonstrate that the channel state information (CSI) obtained at the receiver contains rich information about the propagation environment. Through judicious pre-pro…
New framework uses geometry of embeddings to predict robustness.
problem Monitoring robustness in models without OOD labels.
method Constructs graphs from embeddings, measures spectral complexity and curvature.
result Representation geometry predicts robustness reliably.
Throughout the past five years, the susceptibility of neural networks to minimal adversarial perturbations has moved from a peculiar phenomenon to a core issue in Deep Learning. Despite much attention, however, progress towards more robust models is significantly impaired by the difficulty of evaluating the robustness …
Intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) will be a major component of tomorrow's smart cities. However, realizing the true potential of ITSs requires ultra-low latency and reliable data analytics solutions that can combine, in real-time, a heterogeneous mix of data stemming from the ITS network and its environment. Su…
Noncritical soft-faults and model deviations are a challenge for Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) of resident Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). Such systems may have a faster performance degradation due to the permanent exposure to the marine environment, and constant monitoring of component conditions is requi…
In many applications one may acquire a composition of several signals that may be corrupted by noise, and it is a challenging problem to reliably separate the components from one another without sacrificing significant details. Adding to the challenge, in a compressive sensing framework, one is given only an undersampl…