A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimal regression with reject option using conditional variance thresholding.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
Marxism's rate of profit thesis rejected as illogical.
PRS improves rejection sampling by learning better proposals.
Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However, without proper tuning, this technique implies a high rejection rate. Several methods h…
Accurate on-device keyword spotting (KWS) with low false accept and false reject rate is crucial to customer experience for far-field voice control of conversational agents. It is particularly challenging to maintain low false reject rate in real world conditions where there is (a) ambient noise from external sources s…
We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functio…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU networks is inefficient due to large local error.
We propose a linear-time, single-pass, top-down algorithm for multiple testing on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent hypotheses and edges specify a partial ordering in which hypotheses must be tested. The procedure is guaranteed to reject a sub-DAG with bounded false discovery rate (FDR) while satisf…
We consider the classical problem of learning rates for classes with finite VC dimension. It is well known that fast learning rates up to are achievable by the empirical risk minimization algorithm (ERM) if low noise or margin assumptions are satisfied. These usually require the optimal Baye…
Online method selects candidates from data streams, ensuring irreversible decisions.
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
The study proposes a framework to accept OOD data based on competence scores.
New model corrects bias in crowdsourced ratings for diverse items.
Paper tackles regression with cost-based rejection, balancing prediction and rejection costs.
We provide a method for approximating Bayesian inference using rejection sampling. We not only make the process efficient, but also dramatically reduce the memory required relative to conventional methods by combining rejection sampling with particle filtering. We also provide an approximate form of rejection sampling …
Hour-Aware Adaptive Risk Management for Autonomous Memecoin Trading
In hypothesis testing, a false discovery occurs when a hypothesis is incorrectly rejected due to noise in the sample. When adaptively testing multiple hypotheses, the probability of a false discovery increases as more tests are performed. Thus the problem of False Discovery Rate (FDR) control is to find a procedure for…
Algorithmic trading systems on DEXs reject most candidate tokens, but the counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates is rarely measured.
RMT-Net tackles biased credit scoring data by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
Improved adaptive algorithms for identifying the best arm in MABs with fixed budget.
A reject option improves partial-label learning's accuracy.
In many real applications of statistical learning, a decision made from misclassification can be too costly to afford; in this case, a reject option, which defers the decision until further investigation is conducted, is often preferred. In recent years, there has been much development for binary classification with a …
A dealer manages quotes and rejection rules to control slippage risk in FX markets.
A new approach to model rejection using density ratios.
Delayed rejection HMC improves sampling efficiency for multiscale distributions.
Near-optimal tests and confidence sequences for non-parametric data.
Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…
Paper connects rejection learning to Bhattacharyya divergence.
Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected applications. In this research, we use deep generative models to develop two new semi-s…
We introduce a new geometric approach that constructs a transition kernel of Markov chain. Our method always minimizes the average rejection rate and even reduce it to zero in many relevant cases, which cannot be achieved by conventional methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm or the heat bath algorithm (Gib…
The paper tackles sampling bias in credit scoring models and proposes methods to improve their training and evaluation.
This work tackles scalable sampling for nonsymmetric DPPs.
We consider the problem of selective prediction (also known as reject option) in deep neural networks, and introduce SelectiveNet, a deep neural architecture with an integrated reject option. Existing rejection mechanisms are based mostly on a threshold over the prediction confidence of a pre-trained network. In contra…
We apply the procedure of Lee et al. to the problem of performing inference on the signal-noise ratio of the asset which displays maximum sample Sharpe ratio over a set of possibly correlated assets. We find a multivariate analogue of the commonly used approximate standard error of the Sharpe ratio to use in this condi…
PredictaBoard benchmarks LLM score predictors to assess their ability to anticipate errors.
A novel method for classification with rejection using ensemble of cost-sensitive classifiers.
The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Ou…
We describe a post hoc test for the Sharpe ratio, analogous to Tukey's test for pairwise equality of means. The test can be applied after rejection of the hypothesis that all population Signal-Noise ratios are equal. The test is applicable under a simple correlation structure among asset returns. Simulations indicate t…
How to self-localize large teams of underwater nodes using only noisy range measurements? How to do it in a distributed way, and incorporating dynamics into the problem? How to reject outliers and produce trustworthy position estimates? The stringent acoustic communication channel and the accuracy needs of our geophysi…
New algorithms reduce rejection sampling complexity for shape-constrained distributions.
Polynomial-time algorithm for near-optimal community detection in graphs.
Proposes a method combining CNFs and rejection-resampling for sampling from unnormalized densities.
RED-2400 is a public benchmark of trading events from a Solana exchange, labeled by algorithmic rejection.
Learning with rejection (LWR) allows development of machine learning systems with the ability to discard low confidence decisions generated by a prediction model. That is, just like human experts, LWR allows machine models to abstain from generating a prediction when reliability of the prediction is expected to be low.…
We propose Generative Well-intentioned Networks (GWINs), a novel framework for increasing the accuracy of certainty-based, closed-world classifiers. A conditional generative network recovers the distribution of observations that the classifier labels correctly with high certainty. We introduce a reject option to the cl…
Active learning is an important technique to reduce the number of labeled examples in supervised learning. Active learning for binary classification has been well addressed in machine learning. However, active learning of the reject option classifier remains unaddressed. In this paper, we propose novel algorithms for a…
We address the M-best-arm identification problem in multi-armed bandits. A player has a limited budget to explore K arms (M<K), and once pulled, each arm yields a reward drawn (independently) from a fixed, unknown distribution. The goal is to find the top M arms in the sense of expected reward. We develop an algorithm …