A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper establishes that optimistic algorithms attain gap-dependent and non-asymptotic logarithmic regret for episodic MDPs. In contrast to prior work, our bounds do not suffer a dependence on diameter-like quantities or ergodicity, and smoothly interpolate between the gap dependent logarithmic-regret, and the $\wid…
This paper begins with a study on the dual representations of risk and regret measures and their impact on modeling multistage decision making under uncertainty. A relationship between risk envelopes and regret envelopes is established by using the Lagrangian duality theory. Such a relationship opens a door to a decomp…
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.
The paper tackles ride-hailing fleet repositioning with a calibrated demand approach.
problem Repositioning idle supply before future demand is observed in ride-hailing.
method A predict-then-optimize approach using calibrated demand regimes, a similarity gate, and spatial queue-regret decomposition.
result The spatial gate reduces mean wait time to 82.3s compared to 85.3s for a hand-tuned similarity gate and 85.8s for a distributional-only baseline.
Reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large state spaces is a challenging problem. The performance of standard RL algorithms degrades drastically with the dimensionality of state space. However, in practice, these large MDPs typically incorporate a latent or hidden low-dimensional structu…
ACP-UCB1 ranks arms based on upper-tail performance, improving stochastic bandit algorithms.
problem Stochastic bandit algorithms often favor arms with strong upper-tail performance, which is not well-addressed by classical mean-reward criteria.
method ACP-UCB1 combines an adaptive conformal estimate of the upper endpoint with a UCB-type optimism bonus.
result ACP-UCB1 achieves logarithmic upper-quantile regret with per-arm contribution \(O(
icefrac{\log n}{Δ_j^{\mathrm{ACP}}})\).
Most of machine learning deals with vector parameters. Ideally we would like to take higher order information into account and make use of matrix or even tensor parameters. However the resulting algorithms are usually inefficient. Here we address on-line learning with matrix parameters. It is often easy to obtain onlin…
Recently, much work has been done on extending the scope of online learning and incremental stochastic optimization algorithms. In this paper we contribute to this effort in two ways: First, based on a new regret decomposition and a generalization of Bregman divergences, we provide a self-contained, modular analysis of…
This paper addresses the problem of online learning in a dynamic setting. We consider a social network in which each individual observes a private signal about the underlying state of the world and communicates with her neighbors at each time period. Unlike many existing approaches, the underlying state is dynamic, and…
Regret minimization is treated as the golden rule in the traditional study of online learning. However, regret minimization algorithms tend to converge to the static optimum, thus being suboptimal for changing environments. To address this limitation, new performance measures, including dynamic regret and adaptive regr…
This paper analyzes regret bounds for Gaussian process Thompson sampling.
problem Analyzing the performance of Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS) in Bayesian optimization.
method The paper derives several regret bounds for GP-TS, including a lower bound, upper bounds on the second moment of cumulative regret, expected lenient regret, and improved cumulative regret.
result The paper provides improved regret upper bounds for GP-TS, showing that it suffers from a polynomial dependence on 1/δ with probability δ.
The notion of \emph{policy regret} in online learning is a well defined? performance measure for the common scenario of adaptive adversaries, which more traditional quantities such as external regret do not take into account. We revisit the notion of policy regret and first show that there are online learning settings …
Online learning algorithms are designed to learn even when their input is generated by an adversary. The widely-accepted formal definition of an online algorithm's ability to learn is the game-theoretic notion of regret. We argue that the standard definition of regret becomes inadequate if the adversary is allowed to a…
We consider an online learning process to forecast a sequence of outcomes for nonconvex models. A typical measure to evaluate online learning algorithms is regret but such standard definition of regret is intractable for nonconvex models even in offline settings. Hence, gradient based definition of regrets are common f…
We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive) latent variable models such as hidden Markov models, POMDPs are more challenging…
Regret minimization is a powerful tool for solving large-scale problems; it was recently used in breakthrough results for large-scale extensive-form game solving. This was achieved by composing simplex regret minimizers into an overall regret-minimization framework for extensive-form game strategy spaces. In this paper…
We study the Thompson sampling algorithm in an adversarial setting, specifically, for adversarial bit prediction. We characterize the bit sequences with the smallest and largest expected regret. Among sequences of length T with k<2T zeros, the sequences of largest regret consist of alternating zeros and …
This paper considers the stability of online learning algorithms and its implications for learnability (bounded regret). We introduce a novel quantity called {\em forward regret} that intuitively measures how good an online learning algorithm is if it is allowed a one-step look-ahead into the future. We show that given…
We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive) latent variable models such as hidden Markov models, POMDPs are more challenging…