This study analyzes refugee influx patterns in Greece using model-theoretic techniques.
problem Lack of early warning systems for refugee arrivals in Greece.
method Statistical and signal-based techniques including regression, spectral analysis, and matrix factorization.
result Behavioral patterns of smuggling networks match store-and-forward networks in digital communications.
Study shows refugee matching gains are robust to different evaluation methods.
problem Stability of refugee matching gains under various evaluation methods.
method Used multiple off-policy evaluation methods including IPW and AIPW.
result Impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude and statistically significant.
Study analyzes wind data from Greek islands to predict sea conditions.
problem Predicting sea conditions for refugee influx in Greece.
method Statistical analysis, ARMA models, cross-site correlation.
result ARMA(7,5) models predict average wind speed with RMSE < 1.9 km/h.
Adaptive allocation with constraints using Thompson sampling.
problem Choosing allocations repeatedly with unknown returns and constraints.
method Thompson sampling approach with finite-sample regret bound.
result Prior-independent bound on expected regret for exponential allocations.
Data-driven decision-making often overestimates benefits due to the winner's curse.
problem Accurate policy evaluation in data-driven decision-making.
method Model-based policy evaluation using estimated models from data.
result Model-based methods can produce large, spurious reported benefits even when true effects are zero.
New method estimates active subspaces for jump-discontinuous functions.
problem Estimating active subspaces for discontinuous functions like ABMs.
method Extending active subspaces to discontinuous functions, using Gaussian process.
result Identifies important parameters in ABM simulations of refugee movement.
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
problem Understanding and predicting worldwide trade crises.
method Modeling worldwide trade network using Google matrix analysis and bankruptcy threshold.
result Crisis contagion is localized for high trade balance, global for low trade balance.
We consider the effects of the global financial crisis through a local Korean financial market around the 2008 crisis. We analyze 185 individual stock prices belonging to the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index), cosidering three time periods: the time before, during, and after the crisis. The complex networks gen…
Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.
problem Understanding crises in economic equilibrium models.
method Uses mathematical concepts like branching, envelopes, and intrinsic derivative.
result Establishes criteria to distinguish crises from other equilibria.
The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
problem Quantifying the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
method Selected economic indexes, created datasets, and used machine learning (Linear Regression) for forecasting.
result The model accurately predicted the effects of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
Analysis finds no evidence of banks managing deposit run risk prior to 2023 Regional Banking Crisis.
problem Determining factors for deposit run risk management before a regional banking crisis.
method Cross-sectional analysis of interest rate and equity use by banks.
result No evidence of banks managing deposit run risk via their balance sheet.
Machine learning predicts US stock market crashes.
problem Early detection of stock market crises.
method Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting models.
result Extreme Gradient Boosting outperforms other models.
Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). …
We analyzed cross-correlations between price fluctuations of global financial indices (20 daily stock indices over the world) and local indices (daily indices of 200 companies in the Korean stock market) by using random matrix theory (RMT). We compared eigenvalues and components of the largest and the second largest ei…
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Understanding the factors affecting cross-border lending behavior among G7 countries.
method Employed a gravity model to analyze bilateral and global factors influencing cross-border lending.
result Driving factors for cross-border lending have changed since the 2008 financial crisis, with continent variable becoming more significant.
Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.
problem Identifying economic crises from market correlation data.
method Bayesian multi-trend change point analysis.
result Mean market correlation correlates with major economic events.
Study examines stock market connections before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on stock market connectivity.
method Generated complex networks from cross-correlation matrices, using threshold networks and minimal spanning trees.
result During the crisis, countries in different zones had varying levels of connectivity.
Study improves early warning models for currency and stock market crises.
problem Predicting currency and stock market crises.
method Synthetic review and comparison of early warning models, focusing on crisis identifications and predictive models.
result SWARCH model with elastic thresholding methodology most accurately classifies crisis observations.
The article uses complex system methods to predict cryptocurrency crises.
problem Predicting volatile cryptocurrency market crises.
method Recurrent analysis and permutation entropy of dynamic systems.
result Dynamic complexity measures can predict cryptocurrency crises.
The financial crisis offers new business opportunities in heritage management.
problem Financial institutions' weakened financial condition due to fluctuating real estate property prices.
method Proactive management and stakeholder cooperation to stabilize and optimize properties.
result Properties can serve as a solid base for new business and investment opportunities.
Study reveals changes in correlation between Greece's electricity and stock markets during financial crisis.
problem Understanding volatility and correlation structure between electricity and financial markets during crises.
method Applied Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model to fundamental variables and market indexes.
result Identified structural changes in correlation patterns during the Greek financial crisis.
This paper calculates risk-dependent centrality of Brazilian stocks, showing rankings vary with external risk and crisis events.
problem Understanding asset rankings in the Brazilian stock market under varying external risks.
method Computed risk-dependent centrality (RDC) for Brazilian stocks traded from 2008 to 2020, analyzing volatility and returns.
result Asset rankings based on RDC vary with external risk and crisis events, with higher volatility in crisis periods.
Study reveals structural differences in financial networks near and far from crises using balance theory.
problem Understanding the complex behavior of stocks and their collective behavior in financial crises.
method Investigates financial networks by triplet interaction in the framework of balance theory, focusing on higher-order interactions.
result Formation of an ordered structure in crisis networks makes them resistant to disorder, with a critical temperature measuring crisis strength.
The Financial Crisis of 2008 is a worldwide financial crisis causing a worldwide economic decline that is the most severe since the 1930s. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global financial crisis gave impact on USD 3.4 trillion losses from financial institutions around the world between 2007 and …
In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective behaviour of markets during a financial crisis through cross-correlations between typi…
Study on how China's SMEs finance changed post-crisis, focusing on internal vs. external financing.
problem Analyzing SME financing problems before and after the global financial crisis.
method Regression analysis based on Trade-Off Theory, empirical research on 158 firms.
result SMEs with high growth rates are more likely to obtain external financing after a financial crisis.
Corporate bond factor research is flawed due to measurement errors and ex-post filtering.
problem Replication crisis in corporate bond factor research.
method Analysis of 108 signals across nine thematic clusters, correction of transaction prices and return filtering.
result Majority of previously documented factors do not produce statistically significant alphas after correction.
Investigates VIX's effectiveness as a fear gauge for US and BRIC markets.
problem Determines if VIX remains a reliable indicator of investor fear in US and BRIC markets.
method Analyzed VIX relationships with US and BRIC markets from Jan 2007 to Feb 2018, focusing on pre-, during, and post-2008 financial crisis periods.
result Found frequent structural breaks in VIX and enhanced fear transmission after 2008, with varying impacts on US and BRIC markets.
The 2008 financial crisis revealed banking consolidation paradoxically increased systemic fragility and global financial contagion with negligible spatial decay.
problem Fundamental vulnerabilities in interconnected banking systems during the 2008 financial crisis were inadequately addressed by existing frameworks.
method Developed a unified spatial-network framework using spectral analysis of network Laplacian operators combined with spatial difference-in-differences identification.
result Banking consolidation paradoxically increased systemic fragility and global financial contagion with negligible spatial decay.
Network analysis reveals regional banking clusters during financial crisis.
problem Understanding how financial institutions react to systemic crises.
method Extracting Accounting Network from financial statements, applying quality checks, community detection, PCA.
result Regional banking clusters emerge, with US and Japanese banks dominating, reflecting global practices.
Study reveals resilience of Chinese guarantee network during financial crisis and stimulus.
problem Limited knowledge about guarantee network dynamics during financial downturn.
method Analyzed comprehensive bank loan dataset covering 80% of total loans in China.
result Guarantee network became smaller, less connected, and more stable during financial crisis.
Simple quantifier predicts financial market instability.
problem Predicting financial market instability and risk.
method Combining Information Theory and graph concepts to analyze return rate series.
result Simple quantifier highly correlated with global financial instability periods.
In an informal way, a number of thoughts on the financial crisis 2008 are presented from a physicist's viewpoint, considering the problem as a nonergodicity transition of a spin-glass type of system. Some tentative suggestions concerning the way out of the crisis are also discussed, concerning Keynesian "deficit spendi…
Model shows how confidence feedback can lead to different crisis outcomes.
problem Characterizing the impact of economic recessions on different social strata.
method A self-reflexive DSGE model with heterogeneous households, varying parameters to analyze crisis typologies.
result Crisis propagation can be confined to high or low income households, depending on social network structure and income inequality.
Support Vector Machine (SVM) is powerful classification technique based on the idea of structural risk minimization. Use of kernel function enables curse of dimensionality to be addressed. However, proper kernel function for certain problem is dependent on specific dataset and as such there is no good method on choice …
Unsupervised learning filters tweets for emergency services during crises.
problem Challenges in filtering relevant information from social web data during disasters.
method Multi-task domain adversarial attention network for unsupervised domain adaptation.
result The multi-task model outperforms single task models in filtering relevant tweets.
Study uses vine copulas to optimize financial portfolios during and after the financial crisis.
problem Optimizing financial portfolios during and after the financial crisis.
method Modeling dependency structures using vine copulas, testing different portfolio strategies, analyzing various copulas.
result Vine copulas reduce portfolio risk better than simple copulas, especially during the financial crisis.
Decomposes financial networks to reveal cause-effect hierarchies during crises.
problem Complex financial networks are hard to interpret due to Granger causality.
method Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira decomposition to separate networks into rotational and gradient components.
result Precious metals and pharmaceutical products are identified as causal drivers during crises.
The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model f…
Investment diversification increased during the financial crisis, but similarity between funds remains a systemic risk.
problem Systemic risk in mutual fund investments during the financial crisis.
method Investigated the bipartite network of US mutual fund portfolios and their assets, analyzed their evolution during the crisis, and introduced a simplified model of financial shock propagation.
result Large overlap between mutual fund portfolios is more likely than expected, indicating strong correlations and systemic risk.
This study updates a model for Mexican interest rate swaps post-crisis.
problem Post-crisis divergence of interest rates and new regulatory requirements.
method Used Fujii et al. 2010b model with collateral currencies USD, EUR, MXN.
result Validated model for Mexican interest rate derivatives with collateral currencies.
Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that markets tend to behave as one during great crashes. In order to do so, we investiga…
We prove that the refined approach -- our extension of the Yakovenko et al. formalism -- is universal in the sense that it describes well both household incomes in the European Union and the individual incomes in the United States for social classes of any income. This formalism allowed the study of the impact of the r…
This study examines long-term memory in European financial markets post-2008 crisis.
problem Long-term memory in European financial markets post-2008 crisis.
method DFA and R/S methods to measure Hurst exponents and long-range dependence.
result The 2008 financial crisis had a different impact on fixed income and stock markets.
The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly inter…
New MCMC method estimates systemic risk allocations efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating systemic risk allocations under rare events.
method Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimating conditional marginal loss distributions.
result MCMC estimator provides efficient estimates of risk allocations.
In this work, the time chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is analyzed and approach of recession time term is predicted, which may be hallmark of a worldwide economic crisis. However, the methods used for the prediction will be disclosed a few years from now. On the other hand, this work will be updated …
The study builds financial crisis indicators using random matrix theory.
problem Detecting financial crises in market data.
method Spectral properties of covariance and correlation matrices.
result Predictive power demonstrated in a protective-put strategy.