A new algorithm learns MAGs from data more efficiently using entropy.
problem Learning MAGs from data is unstable and computationally expensive.
method Uses entropy estimation and refined Markov property to score MAGs.
result Algorithm is polynomial in number of nodes and outperforms existing methods.
Characterizes slopes for Markov ordering on prime pairs.
problem Investigating the Markov ordering on relatively prime integer pairs.
method Employing the stable norm on modular torus homology.
result Characterizes slopes for monotonicity of Markov ordering.
Improved algorithm for misspecified MLMDPs with bounded regret and space/time complexities.
problem Misspecified linear Markov decision processes.
method Proposes an algorithm with three desirable properties: bounded regret, bounded space/time complexities, and no need for misspecification input.
result Regret scales as K max { ε e x t m i s , ε e x t t o l } K \max \{ \varepsilon_{ ext{mis}}, \varepsilon_{ ext{tol}} \} K max { ε e x t mi s , ε e x t t o l } , improving existing bounds. The method approximates stationary distributions of Markov models by truncating irrelevant states.
problem Computing the stationary distribution of complex Markov models is computationally challenging.
method A state-space lumping scheme that aggregates states in a grid structure, iteratively refining the state-space.
result The method provides a well-justified finite-state projection tailored to the stationary behavior of Markov models.
PG-EVIKAL refines molecular property predictions using neighbor fusion and evidential neural networks.
problem Improving molecular property predictions using test-time neighbor fusion.
method Adapting evidential neural networks to refine predictions by re-ranking structurally similar neighbors.
result PG-EVIKAL reduces RMSE on 14 out of 16 molecular datasets, improving calibration and sequential refinement.
New Markov chains defined on simplicial complexes for understanding their topology.
problem Understanding the topology of simplicial complexes and hypergraphs.
method Defining new Markov chains on simplicial complexes and studying their properties.
result The generator of the new Markov chain is the upper Laplacian, and the Markov chain is positive recurrent.
Algorithm learns mixtures of Markov chains and MDPs from short trajectories.
problem Learning mixtures of Markov chains and MDPs from short unlabeled trajectories.
method Subspace estimation, spectral clustering, EM algorithm, model estimation, classification.
result 96.6% average accuracy on a mixture of two MDPs in gridworld, outperforming EM algorithm with random initialization.
APINNs use neural networks to solve MCMC problems efficiently.
problem Accurate Bayesian parameter estimation for systems governed by PDEs.
method Construct an offline PINN-UQ model and refine it on the fly using MCMC samples.
result Guaranteed approximation error less than a residual error threshold.
The expressive power of a Gaussian process (GP) model comes at a cost of poor scalability in the data size. To improve its scalability, this paper presents a low-rank-cum-Markov approximation (LMA) of the GP model that is novel in leveraging the dual computational advantages stemming from complementing a low-rank appro…
New algorithm clusters trajectories from multiple Markov chains with near-optimal error.
problem Clustering trajectories from multiple unknown Markov chains.
method Two-stage algorithm: spectral clustering followed by likelihood-based refinement.
result Achieves near-optimal clustering error with high probability.
Paper analyzes \FedAvg's convergence and introduces a new algorithm to reduce bias.
problem Analyzing convergence and bias in Federated Averaging.
method Markov property, first-order bias expansion, Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result Bias in \FedAvg can be decomposed into noise and client heterogeneity components.
We investigate probabilistic graphical models that allow for both cycles and latent variables. For this we introduce directed graphs with hyperedges (HEDGes), generalizing and combining both marginalized directed acyclic graphs (mDAGs) that can model latent (dependent) variables, and directed mixed graphs (DMGs) that c…
Bayesian method refines surrogate models for accurate full waveform inversion.
problem Complex input/output relations in full waveform inversion make accurate surrogate models difficult.
method Iterative refinement of surrogate models using MCMC samples and progressively expanding frequency bandwidth.
result Highly accurate surrogate model across full bandwidth enables accurate final MCMC inversion.
Improved FPL algorithms for adversarial MDPs with better regret bounds.
problem Adversarial rewards and unknown transitions in MDPs.
method Refined analysis of FPL algorithms, matching current best regret bounds.
result Improved regret bounds for FPL algorithms in adversarial MDPs.
The article proposes a deep learning method to test and infer the Markov property in time series data.
problem Testing and inferring the Markov property in high-dimensional time series data.
method Deep conditional generative learning to estimate conditional density functions and derive a doubly robust test statistic.
result The test controls the type-I error asymptotically and has power approaching one.
Formulates Markov property for risk-sensitive dynamic optimisation.
problem Risk-sensitive dynamic optimisation problems in discrete time.
method Formulates probabilistic Markov property under dynamic risk framework.
result Property holds for standard risk measures and has multiple equivalent versions.
In this paper, we unify the Markov theory of a variety of different types of graphs used in graphical Markov models by introducing the class of loopless mixed graphs, and show that all independence models induced by m m m -separation on such graphs are compositional graphoids. We focus in particular on the subclass of rib…
New AD methods improve likelihood estimation for partially observed systems.
problem Estimating likelihood functions for partially observed nonlinear systems.
method Embedding AD particle filter methods in a theoretical framework, developing new algorithms for likelihood maximization.
result Mean squared error significantly lower than existing algorithms.
New algorithm tackles multi-agent reinforcement learning with optimal convergence rate.
problem Multi-agent reinforcement learning with large state spaces and linear function approximations.
method Refined AVLPR framework with data-dependent pessimistic estimation and action-dependent bonuses.
result First algorithm with optimal O ( T − 1 / 2 ) O(T^{-1/2}) O ( T − 1/2 ) convergence rate and no poly( A max A_{\max} A m a x ) dependency. We develop a formalism that allows us to describe Markov compacta with finite sets of diagrams that are building blocks of the entire sequence. This encodes complex, continuous spaces with discrete collections of combinatorial objects. We show that topological properties of the limit (such as k k k -connectedness, local $…
Estimates proper calibration errors and refinement terms in probabilistic predictions.
problem Lack of a general estimator for proper calibration errors and refinement terms with known statistical properties.
method Proposes a method for consistent, asymptotically unbiased estimation of proper calibration errors and refinement terms.
result Proves the relation between refinement and f-divergences, implying information monotonicity in neural networks.
Researchers created a continuous Markov martingale that mimics Brownian motion but lacks the strong Markov property.
problem Constructing a continuous Markov martingale with Brownian marginals that misses the strong Markov property.
method Developed a new approach to create a continuous Markov martingale that differs from Brownian motion in terms of the strong Markov property.
result A continuous Markov martingale with Brownian marginals that lacks the strong Markov property was successfully constructed.
We propose a new complexity measure for Markov decision processes (MDPs), the maximum expected hitting cost (MEHC). This measure tightens the closely related notion of diameter [JOA10] by accounting for the reward structure. We show that this parameter replaces diameter in the upper bound on the optimal value span of a…
Study nonparametric estimator for Markov chain transition matrices in offline setting.
problem Estimating transition matrices of finite controlled Markov chains from logged data.
method Developed sample complexity bounds and conditions for minimaxity.
result Achieving certain statistical risk requires balancing mixing properties and sample size.
Study improves generalization bounds for equivariant networks on Markov data.
problem Challenges in integrating equivariance with Markov dependencies in neural networks.
method Applied McDiarmid's inequality and computed covering number using group theory.
result Derived upper bound on Rademacher complexity for equivariant neural networks on Markov datasets.
A new Markov subsampling strategy based on Huber criterion improves data processing from noisy full data.
problem High noise level in data leads to poor performance of subsampling procedures.
method Design a Markov subsampling strategy based on Huber criterion to construct an informative subset from noisy full data.
result The estimator based on HMS is statistically consistent with a sub-Gaussian deviation bound.
We introduce Markov substitute processes, a new model at the crossroad of statistics and formal grammars, and prove its main property : Markov substitute processes with a given support form an exponential family.
New proofs and refined theorems on bounded cohomology.
problem Properties of bounded cohomology and comparison map.
method Homotopy-theoretic properties and generalizations.
result New proofs and refined versions of vanishing and covering theorems.
Paper improves TD learning algorithm bounds with linear approx.
problem Sharp bounds for TD method performance in MDPs.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, universal step size, refined error bounds, stability of random matrices.
result Near-optimal variance and bias terms achieved.
We show that, for generative classifiers, conditional independence corresponds to linear constraints for the induced discrimination functions. Discrimination functions of undirected Markov network classifiers can thus be characterized by sets of linear constraints. These constraints are represented by a second order fi…
Paper optimizes multi-agent learning in Markov games with generative model.
problem Learning Nash or CCE equilibria in multi-agent Markov games.
method Develops \myalg~algorithm and adaptive sampling scheme using FTRL method.
result Minimax-optimal learning of CCE with minimal samples.
We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as Markov cubature rules. The polynomial property allows us to study such rules using …
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have demonstrated remarkable utility in various challenging machine learning applications. While formally verified properties of their behaviors are highly desired, they have proven notoriously difficult to derive and enforce. Existing approaches typically formulate this problem as a p…
We introduce a multimodal visual-textual search refinement method for fashion garments. Existing search engines do not enable intuitive, interactive, refinement of retrieved results based on the properties of a particular product. We propose a method to retrieve similar items, based on a query item image and textual re…
Refines quantum annular homology using stable homotopy methods.
problem Quantum annular homology lacks a stable homotopy refinement.
method Equivariant Burnside category approach, cyclic group action.
result Stable homotopy refinement of quantum annular homology constructed.
New method estimates hidden binary mixture model centers efficiently.
problem Estimating centers in high-dimensional binary mixture models with hidden Markov structure.
method Proposes a minimax optimal procedure and an adaptive variant.
result Achieves optimal rate of order δ d / n + d / n \sqrt{δd/n} + d/n δ d / n + d / n . New method speeds up sampling of Markov random fields.
problem Efficient sampling of Markov random fields is computationally expensive.
method Introduced a new class of Markov random fields linked to Gaussian Markov Random fields for faster sampling.
result At least 35x faster and 37x less energy consumption compared to Gibbs sampling.
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this work we consider HMMs in continuous time with both constant and switching volati…
New measures generalize existing ones, linking information and risk.
problem Linking information measures and risk in statistical decision problems.
method Introducing new families of divergence measures and deriving an information processing equality.
result Extension of variational φ φ φ -divergence representation to multiple distributions. Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
problem Solving boundary value problems efficiently and accurately.
method Gauss--Markov prior tailored to BVPs, linear-time computation.
result Probabilistic solution with linear time complexity and comparable quality.
Study non-negative curvature Markov chains, proving entropy contraction.
problem Prove entropy contraction for Markov chains with non-negative curvature.
method Prove 1-step contraction in Wasserstein distance implies 1-step contraction in relative entropy.
result Prove MLSI with constant equal to minimal rate increment for mean-field zero-range process.
New entropy flow method extends generalization bounds for all Markov algorithms.
problem Understanding generalization error for Markov algorithms.
method Unified framework using continuous-time approximation and modified logarithmic Sobolev inequalities.
result Established new connections between generalization error and ergodic properties of Markov processes.
We systematically investigate the problem of representing Markov chains by families of random maps, and which regularity of these maps can be achieved depending on the properties of the probability measures. Our key idea is to use techniques from optimal transport to select optimal such maps. Optimal transport theory a…
Study of Markov-modulated affine processes for richer models in finance.
problem Richer models in various applications.
method Martingale problem approach, characteristic function derivation, mathematical properties study.
result Existence and characteristic function of Markov-modulated affine processes.
Research on refined algebraic domains respecting differential geometry.
problem Understanding shapes and regions of real algebraic curves.
method Investigates points in two curves, singular points, inflection points, and points of double tangent lines, considering differential geometry.
result Proves fundamental properties and investigates examples of refined algebraic domains.
Paper tests Markov assumption in sequential decision making.
problem Testing the Markov assumption in sequential decision making.
method Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA without assuming parametric forms.
result The proposed test plays a crucial role in identifying optimal policies in complex decision processes.
New Gaussian priors for neural networks improve scalability and Bayesian inference stability.
problem Scalability and stability issues in Bayesian neural network inference.
method Introduces a new Gaussian neural network prior with decreasing variance in network width, enabling stable MCMC sampling.
result The new prior enables stable MCMC sampling for Bayesian neural network inference, improving scalability and stability.
New algorithm learns causal structures by intersecting Markov blankets.
problem Learning causal relationships from data.
method Endogenous and Exogenous Markov Blankets Intersection (EEMBI) algorithm.
result EEMBI-PC integrates PC algorithm steps for improved accuracy.