Cryptocurrency market activity is decomposed into recurring and noise components, revealing patterns tied to macroeconomic reports.
problem Investigating temporal patterns of cryptocurrency market activity.
method Decomposition of market activity measures into recurring and noise components via correlation matrix formalism.
result Recurring market activity bursts coincide with significant U.S. macroeconomic reports, indicating their influence.
FSNet improves online time series forecasting by balancing fast adaptation and old knowledge.
problem Online time series forecasting challenges in handling abrupt and recurring patterns.
method Inspired by CLS theory, FSNet uses a dynamic balance between fast adaptation and old knowledge retrieval.
result FSNet achieves robustness to both new and recurring patterns through dynamic balancing and associative memory.
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
problem Recurring patterns in volatility and liquidity of major cryptocurrencies.
method Data from two centralized exchanges and a decentralized exchange analyzed for patterns.
result Systematic patterns in volatility and liquidity across different timeframes.
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
Method finds motifs in knowledge graphs, revealing their structure.
problem Identifying meaningful subunits in knowledge graphs.
method Inspired by simple graphs, the approach uses compression techniques to find motifs.
result Motifs found reflect the basic structure of the graph.
A new method for handling missing values in data.
problem Handling missing values in machine learning models.
method Sharing pattern submodels with sparsity-inducing regularization.
result Sharing pattern submodels provide robust predictions and maintain/improve pattern submodel performance.
We present an open-source tool for visualizing multi-head self-attention in Transformer-based language representation models. The tool extends earlier work by visualizing attention at three levels of granularity: the attention-head level, the model level, and the neuron level. We describe how each of these views can he…
Identifying recurring patterns in high-dimensional time series data is an important problem in many scientific domains. A popular model to achieve this is convolutive nonnegative matrix factorization (CNMF), which extends classic nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) to extract short-lived temporal motifs from a long …
When concept drift is detected during classification in a data stream, a common remedy is to retrain a framework's classifier. However, this loses useful information if the classifier has learnt the current concept well, and this concept will recur again in the future. Some frameworks retain and reuse classifiers, but …
Round-Trip Times are one of the most commonly collected performance metrics in computer networks. Measurement platforms such as RIPE Atlas provide researchers and network operators with an unprecedented amount of historical Internet delay measurements. It would be very useful to automate the processing of these measure…
A census is presented of all closed non-orientable 3-manifold triangulations formed from at most seven tetrahedra satisfying the additional constraints of minimality and P^2-irreducibility. The eight different 3-manifolds represented by these 41 different triangulations are identified and described in detail, with part…
Super-resolution methods form high-resolution images from low-resolution images. In this paper, we develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model for super-resolution. Our method uses a beta-Bernoulli process to learn a set of recurring visual patterns, called dictionary elements, from the data. Because it is nonparametric…
This paper identifies and analyzes the Epochal Sawtooth Phenomenon in training loss curves.
problem Training loss oscillations in adaptive gradient-based optimizers.
method Empirical analysis of Adam and other optimizers, focusing on β parameters, batch size, data shuffling, and sample replacement. result The Epochal Sawtooth Phenomenon (ESP) is a recurring pattern in training loss curves, arising from adaptive learning rate adjustments and data shuffling.
The paper models musical motif transformations in Beethoven's works.
problem Understanding how motifs transform in symbolic music.
method Developed a probabilistic framework using Conditional Random Fields.
result Identified patterns of motif transformations and their co-occurrences.
stream-learn is a Python package compatible with scikit-learn and developed for the drifting and imbalanced data stream analysis. Its main component is a stream generator, which allows to produce a synthetic data stream that may incorporate each of the three main concept drift types (i.e. sudden, gradual and incrementa…
Study examines Bitcoin's price history and identifies recurring events.
problem Understanding Bitcoin's price fluctuations and recurring events.
method Analyzed BTC price time-series (2010-2021), identified recurring events, and approximated price evolution using a Fibonacci sequence.
result BTC price history shows recurring events with similar duration and can be approximated using a Fibonacci sequence.
Let M be a Margulis spacetime whose associated complete hyperbolic surface S has compact convex core. Generalizing the correspondence between closed geodesics on M and closed geodesics on S, we establish an orbit equivalence between recurrent spacelike geodesics on M and recurrent geodesics on S. In contrast, no timeli…
Survey of deep learning applications in traffic congestion detection, prediction, and alleviation.
problem Improving transportation network service by detecting, predicting, and alleviating traffic congestion.
method Comprehensive review of deep learning applications in transportation, focusing on challenges specific to congestion.
result Identification of challenges and gaps in current research on deep learning for traffic congestion.
Personalizes query completion in digital commerce with image-based vectors.
problem High bounce rate and low recurring users in query completion.
method Injects dense vectors from product images into a noisy channel model.
result Image-based personalization improves query completion and user experience.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
problem Improving prediction intervals for non-exchangeable time-indexed datasets
method Spectral adaptive conformal prediction
result Improves on fixed spectral weighting while monitoring uncertainty changes
Non-recurring traffic congestion is caused by temporary disruptions, such as accidents, sports games, adverse weather, etc. We use data related to real-time traffic speed, jam factors (a traffic congestion indicator), and events collected over a year from Nashville, TN to train a multi-layered deep neural network. The …
LLMs compress financial texts, but distort decision-making.
problem LLMs compress financial texts, altering decision-making.
method Analyzed two diagnostic patterns: decontextualization and model dependency. Proposed Agentic Context Compression.
result LLM-compressed financial texts alter decision-making.
Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of …
H-STGCN predicts traffic using navigation data and improves accuracy.
problem Limited accuracy in traffic forecasting due to lack of contextual information.
method Proposes H-STGCN, a hybrid spatio-temporal graph convolutional network.
result H-STGCN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various metrics, especially for non-recurring congestion.
Study Morse functions on projective plane using Reeb graphs.
problem Investigate topological structure of Morse functions on projective plane.
method Use Reeb graphs to describe and prove properties of simple Morse functions on RP2. result Prove that Reeb graphs are a complete topological invariant for simple Morse functions on RP2. Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the business cycle phases in US and EuroZone.
method Three machine learning approaches were compared: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) achieved the best results.
result MLR achieved 65.25% accuracy for EuroZone and 75% for US in predicting business cycle phases.
DoubleAdapt improves stock trend forecasting by adapting models to evolving data.
problem Incremental learning for stock trend forecasting is challenging due to distribution shifts.
method DoubleAdapt framework with two adapters for data and model adaptation.
result DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance on real-world stock datasets.
This overview paper is intended as a quick introduction to Lie algebras of vector fields. Originally introduced in the late 19th century by Sophus Lie to capture symmetries of ordinary differential equations, these algebras, or infinitesimal groups, are a recurring theme in 20th-century research on Lie algebras. I will…
DSARF models complex spatio-temporal data with deep switching auto-regressive factors.
problem Forecasting complex spatio-temporal data with recurring patterns.
method Deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF) with stochastic variational inference.
result DSARF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long- and short-term prediction accuracy.
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.
problem Understanding order dynamics during extreme macroeconomic events.
method First-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model.
result Active participation by different traders during high volatility days, influencing market outcomes.
Surveying machine learning for solving graph optimization problems.
problem Solving combinatorial optimization problems on graphs requires algorithmic engineering.
method Surveying machine learning approaches for graph optimization.
result Machine learning offers new ways to solve graph optimization problems.
A recurring problem when building probabilistic latent variable models is regularization and model selection, for instance, the choice of the dimensionality of the latent space. In the context of belief networks with latent variables, this problem has been adressed with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) employing…
Enhash detects concept drift in data streams quickly and efficiently.
problem Detecting abrupt, gradual, virtual, or recurring events in data streams.
method Uses projection hash to insert incoming samples and detects concept drift.
result Enhash has competitive performance and moderate resource requirements compared to existing ensemble learners.
A new memory system handles non-stationary environments by self-sizing and retaining memories.
problem Non-stationary environments where memories arrive over time and must be distinguished from noise.
method A self-sizing continual associative memory that generalizes Hopfield's network, handling adaptation and novelty.
result The memory system grows to the intrinsic memory demand of the environment and retains memories without forgetting.
Reinforcement learning can greatly benefit from the use of options as a way of encoding recurring behaviours and to foster exploration. An important open problem is how can an agent autonomously learn useful options when solving particular distributions of related tasks. We investigate some of the conditions that influ…
BoXHED2.0 boosts survival analysis for complex data.
problem Survival analysis with time-dependent covariates.
method Tree-boosted hazard estimator, fully nonparametric, scalable.
result Scalable to parametric boosted survival models in speed.
We present a convex approach to probabilistic segmentation and modeling of time series data. Our approach builds upon recent advances in multivariate total variation regularization, and seeks to learn a separate set of parameters for the distribution over the observations at each time point, but with an additional pena…
We define an ending lamination for a Weil-Petersson geodesic ray. Despite the lack of a natural visual boundary for the Weil-Petersson metric, these ending laminations provide an effective boundary theory that encodes much of its asymptotic CAT(0) geometry. In particular, we prove an ending lamination theorem (Theorem …
New oriented matroids from simplex triangulations.
problem Constructing oriented matroids from triangulations.
method Using polyhedral matching fields and matroids over hyperfields.
result Generalized construction of matroids over hyperfields.
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This proposal seeks to incorporate five distinct but connected processes that have been …
Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the question: how can a classifier learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain? We present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and…
LLMs struggle with financial reasoning but can outperform the market with human oversight.
problem Financial reasoning failures in LLM-generated stock market predictions.
method Evaluated four LLMs using three prompting strategies and compared to human oversight.
result LLMs require human oversight to fully realize their potential in financial markets.
The multilabel learning problem with large number of labels, features, and data-points has generated a tremendous interest recently. A recurring theme of these problems is that only a few labels are active in any given datapoint as compared to the total number of labels. However, only a small number of existing work ta…
The paper uses persistent homology to estimate recurrence times in multi-variate time series.
problem Estimating recurrence times in multi-variate time series with different cyclic behaviors.
method Persistent homology framework with three specialized methods.
result Validated methods on real-world data, including a new benchmark dataset.
Safe Pattern Pruning reduces pattern explosion in predictive pattern mining.
problem Exponential growth of patterns in structured data.
method Safe Pattern Pruning (SPP) method.
result Effective model building in practical data analysis.
A recurring problem faced when training neural networks is that there is typically not enough data to maximize the generalization capability of deep neural networks(DNN). There are many techniques to address this, including data augmentation, dropout, and transfer learning. In this paper, we introduce an additional met…
This project was motivated by a dialysis study in northern Taiwan. Dialysis patients, after shunt implantation, may experience two types ("acute" or "non-acute") of shunt thrombosis, both of which may recur. We formulate the problem under the framework of recurrent events data in the presence of competing risks. In par…