REGAIN learns optimal auxiliary directions for forecast reconciliation.
problem Forecast reconciliation from fixed systems; identifying useful auxiliary directions.
method REGAIN learns normalized auxiliary directions, forecasts induced series, and selects directions by loss reduction.
result Gain-selected auxiliary directions improve forecast quality, especially for residual uncertainty.
Proposes a value-oriented forecast reconciliation method for renewables in electricity markets.
problem Forecast reconciliation overlooks the value of forecasts in decision-making, leading to unfair outcomes.
method Value-oriented forecast reconciliation using a Nash bargaining framework and a primal-dual algorithm for parameter estimation.
result Consistently increases profits for all agents involved in an aggregated wind energy trading problem.
Unified R packages for forecast reconciliation of constrained series.
problem Improving accuracy and coherence of forecasts for linearly constrained multiple time series.
method Classical and machine learning-based linear reconciliation approaches for cross-sectional, temporal, and cross-temporal frameworks.
result Unified toolbox for forecast reconciliation in R.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Forecast reconciliation improves portfolio risk forecasts, especially when true covariance is known.
problem Improving portfolio risk forecasts using multivariate GARCH models.
method Combining univariate and multivariate forecasts with forecast reconciliation techniques.
result Forecast reconciliation improves over standard multivariate approaches, especially when true covariance is known.
Optimal reconciliation keeps some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
problem Keeping some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
method Formulates a method to keep some forecasts unchanged in a hierarchical forecasting system.
result Preserves unbiasedness and non-negativity of forecasts.
This paper extends forecast reconciliation to non-linearly constrained time series.
problem Forecasting time series with non-linear constraints.
method Non-linearly Constrained Reconciliation (NLCR) algorithm that adjusts forecasts to meet non-linear constraints.
result NLCR significantly improves forecast accuracy compared to benchmarks.
Study improves forecasting of aggregated curves in electricity markets.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting aggregated curves like demand and supply in electricity markets.
method Exploits hierarchical structure of aggregated curves, uses reconciliation methods (bottom-up, top-down, linear optimal, aggregated-down).
result Hierarchical reconciliation methods can significantly improve forecast accuracy of aggregated curves.
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
We introduce a technique to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on precision and recall for matching algorithms. The bounds require some verified matches, but those matches may be used to develop the algorithms. The bounds can be applied to network reconciliation or entity resolution algorithms, which i…
The study improves prediction regions for hierarchical data using a projection step.
problem Improving prediction regions for hierarchical multivariate data.
method Integrating a projection step in the split conformal prediction (SCP) procedure to reduce prediction regions.
result The resulting prediction regions are globally smaller under both joint and component-wise coverage objectives.
A method for fast, accurate cross-temporal forecasts using machine learning.
problem Inconsistent forecasts across different levels of platform data.
method Non-linear hierarchical forecast reconciliation using machine learning.
result Automated direct production of reconciled forecasts for high-frequency decision making.
Time inconsistency leads to intra-personal conflict and reconciliation strategies.
problem Time inconsistency in dynamic choice problems.
method Rigorous treatment of intra-personal equilibrium in continuous-time settings.
result A new approach to understanding and reconciling intra-personal conflicts.
A new method reduces complexity and uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex neural networks.
method Condensed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (cSVGD) method.
result Condensed SVGD provides uncertainty quantification on parameters.
Proposes a neural network for accurate and reconciled hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting and reconciling hierarchical time series data.
method Uses a deep neural network to directly produce accurate and reconciled forecasts, minimizing a customized loss function at training time.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in hierarchical forecasting on real-world datasets.
THieF improves day-ahead electricity price prediction accuracy by reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting day-ahead electricity prices.
method Temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
result THieF significantly improves accuracy (up to 13%) at all levels of prediction.
RPN unifies various models with a reconciled polynomial network.
problem Unifying diverse models for deep function learning.
method RPN disentangles functions into inner products of expansion and reconciliation functions.
result RPN accurately approximates underlying functions for data distributions.
The problem of multilabel classification when the labels are related through a hierarchical categorization scheme occurs in many application domains such as computational biology. For example, this problem arises naturally when trying to automatically assign gene function using a controlled vocabularies like Gene Ontol…
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
problem Challenges in hierarchical time series forecasting, especially in accuracy and information utilisation.
method Developed and evaluated local and global forecasting models (GFMs) to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information.
result Global Forecasting Models (GFMs) outperform local models in hierarchical forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Novel framework improves wind power forecasts by bundling assets and using machine learning.
problem Inaccurate forecasts of intermittent renewable generation, especially wind power.
method Bundle-Predict-Reconcile (BPR) framework integrating asset bundling, machine learning, and forecast reconciliation.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy, especially at the fleet level.
A new hierarchical forecasting method using machine learning improves forecast accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in hierarchical forecasting systems.
method Non-linear combination of base forecasts, focusing on both accuracy and coherence.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches, especially for diverse series.
The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to considering a finite horizon framework. However, assuming infinite exchangeability gives…
When forecasting time series with a hierarchical structure, the existing state of the art is to forecast each time series independently, and, in a post-treatment step, to reconcile the time series in a way that respects the hierarchy (Hyndman et al., 2011; Wickramasuriya et al., 2018). We propose a new loss function th…
Time series data in the retail world are particularly rich in terms of dimensionality, and these dimensions can be aggregated in groups or hierarchies. Valuable information is nested in these complex structures, which helps to predict the aggregated time series data. From a portfolio of brands under HUUB's monitoring, …
Bayesian approach confirms no return predictability for 1926-2004 data, weak evidence for 1953-2021.
problem Investigating return predictability using Bayesian methods.
method Developed a new shrinkage type prior for a model parameter in a VAR system, compared to other estimation methods.
result Bayesian approach outperforms reduced-bias estimator in terms of size and power.
SCORE resolves the robustness vs accuracy trade-off by redefining robust error.
problem The inherent trade-off between robustness and accuracy in adversarial training.
method SCORE defines local equivariance as the ideal robust behavior, leading to a new robust error metric.
result SCORE reconciles robustness and accuracy, improving model performance on RobustBench.
Paper proposes a new method for selecting the best hierarchical forecasting approach.
problem Selecting the best method for reconciling base forecasts in hierarchical time series.
method Conditional hierarchical forecasting using machine learning and time series features.
result Conditional hierarchical forecasting leads to significantly more accurate forecasts, especially at lower levels.
Data of practical interest - such as personal records, transaction logs, and medical histories - are sequential collections of events relevant to a particular source entity. Recent studies have attempted to link sequences that represent a common entity across data sets to allow more comprehensive statistical analyses a…
Introduces relative information gain for improving Gaussian process regression rates.
problem Improving the sample complexity of estimating or maximizing unknown functions.
method Introduces relative information gain, interpolates between effective dimension and information gain, and proves PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Obtains minimax-optimal rates of convergence through the relative information gain.
Decision trees algorithms use a gain function to select the best split during the tree's induction. This function is crucial to obtain trees with high predictive accuracy. Some gain functions can suffer from a bias when it compares splits of different arities. Quinlan proposed a gain ratio in C4.5's information gain fu…
Bayesian approach for multifile record linkage and duplicate detection.
problem Challenges in merging overlapping datafiles with duplicates.
method Bayesian approach with novel partition representation and loss functions.
result Proposes a flexible prior for partitions and uncertain unresolved portions.
A new hierarchical forecasting method improves overall accuracy.
problem Hierarchical forecasting challenges, especially for intermittent time series.
method Top-down alignment of independent level forecasts using deep learning and tree-based algorithms.
result Improves overall forecasting accuracy compared to existing methods.
The gain-loss ratio is known to enjoy very good properties from a normative point of view. As a confirmation, we show that the best market gain-loss ratio in the presence of a random endowment is an acceptability index and we provide its dual representation for general probability spaces. However, the gain-loss ratio w…
Eluder dimension and information gain are equivalent for reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
problem Complexity measures in bandit and reinforcement learning.
method Equivalence of eluder dimension and information gain for reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result Eluder dimension and information gain are equivalent for reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
PC-GAIN improves GAIN's imputation by incorporating category information.
problem Missing data in incomplete datasets.
method Pre-training with pseudo-labels and incorporating an auxiliary classifier into GAIN.
result Significantly improved imputation quality compared to GAIN.
Real-time fuel leakage detection framework MOCPD improves accuracy.
problem Early detection of fuel leakage to prevent hazards and losses.
method Memory-based Online Change Point Detection (MOCPD) framework.
result MOCPD outperforms baseline methods in detection accuracy.
Investment horizon approach has been used to analyze indexes of Polish stock market.Optimal time horizon for each return value is evaluated by fitting appropriate function form of the distribution. Strong asymmetry of gain-loss curves is observed for WIG index, whereas gain and loss curves look similar for WIG20 and fo…
We study the problem of online path learning with non-additive gains, which is a central problem appearing in several applications, including ensemble structured prediction. We present new online algorithms for path learning with non-additive count-based gains for the three settings of full information, semi-bandit and…
Deep FPF approximates gain function for high-dimensional particle filtering.
problem Approximating the exact gain function in high-dimensional settings.
method Represent the gain function as a neural network gradient and solve a variational Poisson equation via optimization.
result The approach allows parallel processing of particles and is applicable to high-dimensional problems.
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for individual stocks and show that the phenomenon is closely linked to the well-known …
New measures for causal entropy and information gain studied.
problem Quantifying causal relationships in machine learning.
method Formal study of causal entropy and information gain.
result Established fundamental properties and relationships.
Study adds investment gains and losses to recursive utility model, proving existence and uniqueness of utility process.
problem Existence and uniqueness of utility process in a recursive utility model with investment gains and losses.
method Generalized recursive utility model with constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution and relative risk aversion degree. Proved existence and uniqueness in a specific, finite-state Markovian setting.
result Utility process exists and is unique when agent derives nonnegative gain-loss utility, and non-existent or non-unique otherwise.
In this partly expository monograph we develop a general framework for producing uncountable families of exotic actions of certain classically studied groups acting on the circle. We show that if L is a nontrivial limit group then the nonlinear representation variety Hom(L,Homeo+(S1)) contains u…
New method improves feature selection in tree-based models.
problem Previous feature selection methods in tree-based models lack sufficient regularization and sub-optimal performance.
method Developed a new gain penalization approach for tree-based models that allows for flexible feature-specific importance weights.
result The new method improves out-of-sample performance, especially with correlated features.
Isobenefit Lines can offer a certain range of applicability in Location Theory and Gravitational Models for Urban and Geography Economics, in positional decision processes made by citizens, and, last but not least, in land value and property market theories and analysis. The value of a land, or a property, in a generic…
A new protocol evaluates small machine learning improvements conservatively.
problem Uncertainty in small gains reported in machine learning papers.
method Paired bootstrap protocol with BCa confidence intervals and sign-flip permutation tests.
result Conservative evaluation reduces over-claiming of small improvements.
We pursue an early stopping technique that helps Gaussian Restricted Boltzmann Machines (GRBMs) to gain good natural image representations in terms of overcompleteness and data fitting. GRBMs are widely considered as an unsuitable model for natural images because they gain non-overcomplete representations which include…
We demonstrate that the gain/loss asymmetry observed for stock indices vanishes if the temporal dependence structure is destroyed by scrambling the time series. We also show that an artificial index constructed by a simple average of a number of individual stocks display gain/loss asymmetry - this allows us to explicit…