A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study uses RNN for real-time crypto price prediction and trading optimization.
Paper proposes a risk-averse approach to energy storage price arbitrage using conformal uncertainty quantification.
KryptoOracle predicts cryptocurrency prices using Twitter sentiments.
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
New algorithm optimizes auction prices in real-time.
The paper analyzes real-time methods to detect rapidly varying liquidity in markets.
ALPE improves mid-price forecasting in HFT with real-time data.
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
Study applies Hawkes volatility to mid-price process for real-time risk management.
Generative model prices basket options efficiently.
In most illiquid markets, there is no obvious proxy for the market price of an asset. The European corporate bond market is an archetypal example of such an illiquid market where mid-prices can only be estimated with a statistical model. In this OTC market, dealers / market makers only have access, indeed, to partial i…
In this letter, we address the problem of controlling energy storage systems (ESSs) for arbitrage in real-time electricity markets under price uncertainty. We first formulate this problem as a Markov decision process, and then develop a deep reinforcement learning based algorithm to learn a stochastic control policy th…
Hybrid engine analyzes news sentiment for markets in real-time.
Recent academic work has developed a method to determine, in real time, if a given stock is exhibiting a price bubble. Currently there is speculation in the financial press concerning the existence of a price bubble in the aftermath of the recent IPO of LinkedIn. We analyze stock price tick data from the short lifetime…
Online retailers execute a very large number of price updates when compared to brick-and-mortar stores. Even a few mis-priced items can have a significant business impact and result in a loss of customer trust. Early detection of anomalies in an automated real-time fashion is an important part of such a pricing system.…
Price responsiveness is a major feature of end use customers (EUCs) that participate in demand response (DR) programs, and has been conventionally modeled with static demand functions, which take the electricity price as the input and the aggregate energy consumption as the output. This, however, neglects the inherent …
Transformer model forecasts electricity price spread for virtual bidding.
This paper proposes an agent-based model that combines both spot and balancing electricity markets. From this model, we develop a multi-agent simulation to study the integration of the consumers' flexibility into the system. Our study identifies the conditions that real-time prices may lead to higher electricity costs,…
Model predicts stock prices using GAN and RoI Pooling.
PriceSeer benchmarks LLMs in real-time stock prediction.
Real-time detection of spoofing in cryptocurrency exchanges using neural networks.
In programmatic advertising, ad slots are usually sold using second-price (SP) auctions in real-time. The highest bidding advertiser wins but pays only the second-highest bid (known as the winning price). In SP, for a single item, the dominant strategy of each bidder is to bid the true value from the bidder's perspecti…
FinBloom enhances LLMs for real-time financial queries.
We propose an offline-online procedure for Fourier transform based option pricing. The method supports the acceleration of such essential tasks of mathematical finance as model calibration, real-time pricing, and, more generally, risk assessment and parameter risk estimation. We adapt the empirical magic point interpol…
Fast probabilistic option price predictions using modular Bayesian inference.
The pricing of financial derivatives, which requires massive calculations and close-to-real-time operations under many trading and arbitrage scenarios, were largely infeasible in the past. However, with the advancement of modern computing, the efficiency has substantially improved. In this work, we propose and design a…
Stochastic simulation techniques employed for the analysis of portfolios of insurance/reinsurance risk, often referred to as `Aggregate Risk Analysis', can benefit from exploiting state-of-the-art high-performance computing platforms. In this paper, parallel methods to speed-up aggregate risk analysis for supporting re…
Smart grid uses deep learning to optimize household energy use.
Paper analyzes systematic jump risk around the clock using news narratives.
Detecting real-time price impact in algo trading
We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and intro…
A scalable system detects price anomalies in online marketplaces to improve customer experience.
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
With developing of computation tools in the last years, data analysis methods to find insightful information are becoming more common among industries and researchers. This paper is the first part of the times series analysis of New England electricity price and demand to find anomaly in the data. In this paper time-se…
Extends micro-price concept to RFQ markets for fair pricing.
We describe an agent-based simulation of a fictional (but feasible) information trading business. The Gas Price Information Trader (GPIT) buys information about real-time gas prices in a metropolitan area from drivers and resells the information to drivers who need to refuel their vehicles. Our simulation uses real wor…
In the past decade, Bitcoin as an emerging asset class has gained widespread public attention because of their extraordinary returns in phases of extreme price growth and their unpredictable massive crashes. We apply the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator as a diagnostic tool for identifyin…
We propose a mathematical model of momentum risk-taking, which is essentially real-time risk management focused on short-term volatility of stock markets. Its implementation, our fully automated momentum equity trading system presented systematically, proved to be successful in extensive historical and real-time experi…
Optimizes RTB bidding without exploration, improving performance under various budgets.
The potential of recovering the topology of a grid using solely publicly available market data is explored here. In contemporary whole-sale electricity markets, real-time prices are typically determined by solving the network-constrained economic dispatch problem. Under a linear DC model, locational marginal prices (LM…
Study compares RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks for forex rate prediction.
Paper proposes a GAN-based approach for RTLMP prediction.
The paper uses machine learning to predict cryptocurrency price changes.
Model predicts and optimizes trading of electricity price spreads across multiple zones.
This thesis builds a real-time VaR calculation workflow for crypto derivatives.
WamOL uses PINNs to efficiently calibrate IVS from sparse data.
RL accelerates portfolio optimization and option pricing by dynamically adjusting preconditioner sizes.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…