Rate change calculations in the literature involve deterministic methods that measure the change in premium for a given policy. The definition of rate change as a statistical parameter is proposed to address the stochastic nature of the premium charged for a policy. It promotes the idea that rate change is a property o…
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48 results for “rates of change”
On Capital Dependent Dynamics of Knowledgephysics.soc-ph
We investigate the dynamics of growth models in terms of dynamical system theory. We analyse some forms of knowledge and its influence on economic growth. We assume that the rate of change of knowledge depends on both the rate of change of physical and human capital. First, we study model with constant savings. The mod…
Sequential Multivariate Change Detection with Calibrated and Memoryless False Detection Ratesstat.ME
New method calibrates false detection rates in sequential change detection.
problem Challenges in setting time-invariant thresholds for false positives.
method Simulation-based approach to time-varying thresholds.
result Accurately targets desired expected runtime while keeping false positive rate constant.
Modeling climate change costs with stochastic interest rates shows inequality, but funding abatement can reduce this.
problem Evaluating the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation with uncertain discount rates.
method Amended DICE model with stochastic interest rates and funding abatement costs.
result Introducing funding abatement can reduce intergenerational inequality in climate change costs.
Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
problem Determining appropriate discount rates for future losses.
method Analyzes climate change and discount rates debate.
result Risk requires a lower, not higher, discount rate.
CCVA adjusts for climate change impacts on financial valuation.
problem Climate change impacts on financial valuation are currently ignored.
method Flexible parameterization to capture climate impacts on hazard rates.
result Significant impacts on interest rate swaps even with slow climate change.
We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify th…
Study optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
problem Optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
method Proposed integral disparity to quantify imitation, derived general solution using variational method, analyzed asymptotic properties, validated with real data.
result Investor's optimal decisions under imitation of decision-changing rates.
The telegraph process models a random motion with finite velocity and it is usually proposed as an alternative to diffusion models. The process describes the position of a particle moving on the real line, alternatively with constant velocity or . The changes of direction are governed by an homogeneous Poisso…
The paper develops a new formula for financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
problem Financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
method Derives a change of measure formula for recursive conditional expectations in a jump-diffusion setting.
result Generalizes the change of numéraire technique for multiple interest rates and collateralization.
Performance attribution with respect to interest rates, FX, carry, and residual market risksq-fin.RM
Method to decompose portfolio performance into FX, interest rate, carry, and residual market risks.
problem Understanding the sources of portfolio performance.
method Decomposition of portfolio PnL into four components.
result Demonstrated usefulness of the method through fund performance analysis.
MOSAIC detects change points in dynamic networks with low-rank and sparse changes.
problem Detecting change points in dynamic networks with specific structural properties.
method Eigen-decomposition-based test with screened signals and residual-based adjustment.
result MOSAIC achieves minimax-optimal detection and testing rates.
In foreign exchange markets monotonic rate changes can be observed in time scale of order of an hour on the days that governmental interventions took place. We estimate the starting time of an intervention using this characteristic behavior of the exchange rates. We find that big amount of interventions can shift the a…
Defines an implied CO2-price to cover climate change costs, finding it significantly higher than the SCC.
problem The social cost of carbon (SCC) does not fully cover climate change costs.
method Defines an implied CO2-price as a 'polluter pays principle' and calculates its value using a DICE model.
result The cost-implied CO2 price is around 500/tCO2 for SCC.
We estimate the rate of change of the best constant in the Sobolev inequality of a Euclidean domain which moves outward. Along the way we prove an inequality which reverses the usual Holder inequality, which may be of independent interest.
Balancing graph summarization and change detection in streaming data.
problem Balancing compression rate in graph summarization and accuracy in change detection.
method Introducing a probabilistic hierarchical latent variable model and optimizing parameters based on the minimum description length principle to balance the trade-off.
result Guaranteed suppression of Type I error probability (false alarms) in change detection.
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
The paper develops methods to accurately locate change points in high-dimensional mean shift models.
problem Locating change points in high-dimensional mean shift models.
method Locally refitted least squares estimator, component-wise and simultaneous rates of estimation.
result Asymptotic validity of component-wise and simultaneous confidence intervals for change point parameters.
We explicitly test if the reliability of credit ratings depends on the total number of admissible states. We analyse open access credit rating data and show that the effect of the number of states in the dynamical properties of ratings change with time, thus giving supportive evidence that the ideal number of admissibl…
Optimal learning rate schedules for SGD in changing data distributions.
problem Minimizing regret in online learning with changing data distributions.
method Characterized optimal schedules for linear regression, proposed schedules for general convex and non-convex losses, and defined a notion of regret for non-convex losses.
result Upper and lower bounds for regret with constants for convex losses, and an upper bound on total expected regret for non-convex losses.
Long-range dependence in Interest Rates and Monetary Policyphysics.data-an
This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates for the last decade. Empirical results suggest that the degree of long-range depe…
In quantitative finance, we often model asset prices as a noisy Ito semimartingale. As this model is not identifiable, approximating by a time-changed Levy process can be useful for generative modelling. We give a new estimate of the normalised volatility or time change in this model, which obtains minimax convergence …
ET-GP-UCB optimizes time-varying functions without knowing change rates.
problem Sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function with unknown change rates.
method Event-triggered Bayesian optimization with adaptive resets based on probabilistic uniform error bounds.
result ET-GP-UCB outperforms other GP-UCB algorithms in synthetic and real-world data.
Develops statistical methods for rates of change on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Statistical inference for rates of change in spatial processes over non-Euclidean domains.
method Formalizes smoothness and constructs differential processes for Riemannian manifolds, derives conditions for kernel existence, and develops predictive inference.
result Validates theoretical findings through simulation experiments for derivatives over polyhedral meshes.
Novel graph-spanning algorithm detects changes in high-dimensional data.
problem Detecting changes in high-dimensional data across various distributions.
method Graph-spanning algorithm designed for offline and online data.
result Achieves high detection power with minimal separation rate.
Filtering in a hazard rate change-point model with financial and life-insurance applicationsq-fin.MF
The paper develops a filtering framework for estimating hazard rates with jumps in financial and insurance applications.
problem Estimating hazard rates with unobservable change-points in financial and insurance contexts.
method Continuous-time filtering framework using progressive enlargement of filtration, stochastic differential equations, and sensitivity analysis.
result Explicit formula for survival probability conditional on partial information.
Analysis finds no evidence of banks managing deposit run risk prior to 2023 Regional Banking Crisis.
problem Determining factors for deposit run risk management before a regional banking crisis.
method Cross-sectional analysis of interest rate and equity use by banks.
result No evidence of banks managing deposit run risk via their balance sheet.
On Rank Energy Statistics via Optimal Transport: Continuity, Convergence, and Change Point Detectionstat.ML
Paper uses optimal transport-based statistics for change point detection.
problem Change point detection in multivariate data.
method Soft rank energy and entropically regularized optimal transport.
result Soft rank energy performs better in real datasets with strong continuity and convergence properties.
Modeling house prices in Australia reveals supply limitations as the primary driver of extreme trends.
problem Understanding the resilience of Australia's housing prices despite changes in mortgage rates.
method Developed a differential equation model and used modern extreme value techniques on real-world data.
result Without supply increases, a 11% mortgage rate hike is needed to moderate extreme housing costs.
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
This paper uses PCA and FA for feature selection in credit rating.
problem Selecting important features for credit rating prediction.
method Principal Component Analysis and Factor Analysis.
result Factor Analysis reduces feature set significantly without losing much accuracy.
We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clus…
Paper presents adaptive minimax risk classifiers for multidimensional concept drift.
problem Multidimensional concept drift in supervised classification.
method Adaptive minimax risk classifiers (AMRCs) tracking multivariate and high-order distribution changes.
result AMRCs provide computable tight performance guarantees and improve classification.
POLA adapts learning rates for online time series prediction.
problem Adapting to changing data distributions in dynamic environments.
method Adaptive learning rate regulation for recurrent neural networks.
result POLA outperforms other online prediction methods in real-world datasets.
New method improves speed of estimating bivariate functional data.
problem Estimating bivariate functional data at faster rates.
method Adapting to directional regularity of bivariate processes.
result Faster rates of convergence achieved through change-of-basis.
New method tracks significant shifts in nonparametric bandits.
problem Tracking significant changes in nonparametric contextual bandits.
method Proposed a notion of 'experienced significant shifts' to adapt to minimax rate without knowledge of change parameters.
result Experienced significant shifts count fewer changes than traditional metrics, leading to an adaptive algorithm.
Inference on the change point in high dimensional time series models via plug in least squaresstat.ME
Estimates change point in high dimensional time series models.
problem Change point estimation in high dimensional time series.
method Plug-in least squares estimator with sufficient conditions for adaptivity.
result Optimal rate of convergence in integer scale.
This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…
Derives equations for life insurance reserves with interest rate uncertainty.
problem Life insurance reserves with stochastic interest rates.
method Partial differential equations for reserves under stochastic interest rates.
result Explicit solutions for reserves under specific models.
We derive measure change formulae required to price midcurve swaptions in the forward swap annuity measure with stochastic annuities' ratios. We construct the corresponding linear and exponential terminal swap rate pricing models and show how they capture the midcurve swaption correlation skew.
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
Optimizes web page freshness with limited crawling frequencies.
problem Maximize local cache freshness given crawling frequency constraints.
method Three novel online estimation schemes for page change rates.
result Convergent algorithms for estimating page change rates.
The Kelly rule fails to maximize growth in a time-changed return setting.
problem Performance of the Kelly rule in a time-changed return process.
method Investigated the Kelly rule in a semi-martingale setting with a time change process.
result The Kelly rule does not maximize average growth rate in a non-normal log-return setting.
New method tracks significant arm switches to improve bandit algorithms.
problem Adaptive procedures for bandits with unknown changes in reward distribution.
method Proposes a new notion of significant shift to count severe changes.
result Achieves faster rates than previous methods, especially when few changes are severe.
This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switch according to a finite…
We consider the classical stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with a constraint that limits the total cost incurred by switching between actions to be no larger than a given switching budget. For this problem, we prove matching upper and lower bounds on the optimal (i.e., minimax) regret, and provide efficient rate-o…
Paper introduces Ddim, a new measure of model complexity, for MDL-based learning and change detection.
problem Characterizing the complexity of probabilistic models for efficient learning and change detection.
method Introduces descriptive dimension (Ddim) as a measure of model complexity. Derives convergence rates and error probabilities for MDL-based learning and change detection.
result Ddim characterizes the performance of MDL-based learning and change detection.
In a continuous time stochastic economy, this paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market in which the representative investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switches…