A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Random forests classify Pokemon names based on evolutionary status.
This paper studies the critical dynamics of random surfaces, focusing on area and genus evolution.
Evolution and learning are two of the fundamental mechanisms by which life adapts in order to survive and to transcend limitations. These biological phenomena inspired successful computational methods such as evolutionary algorithms and deep learning. Evolution relies on random mutations and on random genetic recombina…
New self-exciting random evolutions (SEREs) for modeling traffic and transport processes.
New method predicts state evolution for non-first-order algorithms on nonconvex problems.
In this paper we are concerned with the learnability of energies from data obtained by observing time evolutions of their critical points starting at random initial equilibria. As a byproduct of our theoretical framework we introduce the novel concept of mean-field limit of critical point evolutions and of their energy…
We study the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market mainly based on the random matrix theory (RMT). The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving …
This tutorial introduces the CMA Evolution Strategy (ES), where CMA stands for Covariance Matrix Adaptation. The CMA-ES is a stochastic, or randomized, method for real-parameter (continuous domain) optimization of non-linear, non-convex functions. We try to motivate and derive the algorithm from intuitive concepts and …
Develops robust methods for infinite-dimensional stochastic processes.
Gradient descent solves rank-one matrix estimation problem with detailed time evolution analysis.
Geometric QHD tests improve hub detection in correlated data.
Modeling financial market dynamics with 2D Levy flights.
New method uses randomized sparse neural networks to solve time-dependent PDEs more accurately and efficiently.
We find the explicit expression for the equilibrium wealth distribution of the Directed Random Market process, recently introduced by Martínez-Martínez and López-Ruiz, which turns out to be a Gamma distribution with shape parameter . We also prove the convergence of the discrete-time process describing the…
We present a broad agenda for meaningful banking regulation reform aiming the creation of evolutive competitive environment to maximize the effectiveness of international financial system through the introduction of fair competition process among the banks in free market capitalism. We assume that the international fin…
Quantum methods model uncertain volatility in financial markets.
Simulating the time-evolution of quantum mechanical systems is BQP-hard and expected to be one of the foremost applications of quantum computers. We consider classical algorithms for the approximation of Hamiltonian dynamics using subsampling methods from randomized numerical linear algebra. We derive a simulation tech…
Study asset price bubbles using random matching and stochastic factors.
As most natural resources, fisheries are affected by random disturbances. The evolution of such resources may be modelled by a succession of deterministic process and random perturbations on biomass and/or growth rate at random times. We analyze the impact of the characteristics of the perturbations on the management o…
Continuous time random walks impose a random waiting time before each particle jump. Scaling limits of heavy tailed continuous time random walks are governed by fractional evolution equations. Space-fractional derivatives describe heavy tailed jumps, and the time-fractional version codes heavy tailed waiting times. Thi…
Investigates multifractal scaling in critical dynamics of random surfaces.
Simplicial persistence measures financial market dynamics, revealing long-term structure evolution.
In sustained growth with random dynamics stationary distributions can exist without detailed balance. This suggests thermodynamical behavior in fast growing complex systems. In order to model such phenomena we apply both a discrete and a continuous master equation. The derivation of elementary rates from known stationa…
The paper calculates how random changes affect paths on a complex geometric space.
New method for non-arbitrage pricing in risky assets.
This paper introduces SS-MAMP to address convergence issues in AMP algorithms.
We model how Lipschitz continuity changes during neural network training.
BWFlow improves graph generation by smoothly interpolating graph components.
We adapt continuous time random walk (CTRW) formalism to describe asset price evolution and discuss some of the problems that can be treated using this approach. We basically focus on two aspects: (i) the derivation of the price distribution from high-frequency data, and (ii) the inverse problem, obtaining information …
This paper studies an optimal trading problem that incorporates the trader's market view on the terminal asset price distribution and uninformative noise embedded in the asset price dynamics. We model the underlying asset price evolution by an exponential randomized Brownian bridge (rBb) and consider various prior dist…
With the network methods and random matrix theory, we investigate the interaction structure of communities in financial markets. In particular, based on the random matrix decomposition, we clarify that the local interactions between the business sectors (subsectors) are mainly contained in the sector mode. In the secto…
The paper proposes an evolution-based approach to estimate causal effects in interference networks without fully observing the network structure.
Enhances graph classification models on small datasets.
Investment diversification affects financial stability, depending on network connectivity.
We apply the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) framework, introduced in finance by Scalas et al., to the analysis of the probability distribution of time intervals between two consecutive trades in the case of BTP futures prices traded at LIFFE in 1997. Results corroborate the validity of the CTRW approach for the des…
We introduce and discuss a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describes the evolution of wealth in a pure gambling process, where the entire sum of wealths of two agents is up for gambling, and randomly shared between the agents. For this equation the analytical form of the steady states is found for va…
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …
We propose a new class of structured methods for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, called DPPMC, designed for high-dimensional nonisotropic distributions where samples are correlated to reduce the variance of the estimator via determinantal point processes. We successfully apply DPPMCs to problems involving nonisotropic distr…
Most real life systems have a random component: the multitude of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing them result in stochastic fluctuations of the parameters determining their dynamics. These empirical systems are in many cases subject to noise of multiplicative nature. The special properties of multiplicative…
The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Usi…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for much of the 20th century. Their analysis, in common with the standard economic li…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic prospective tables thus built make it possible to project the evolution of the rand…
A new method simulates large, diverse populations of learning agents evolving in games.
GRADE models evolving graph dynamics by learning node and community representations.
Proposes ABC method for discrete data, improving likelihood-free inference.
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable. But the small number of available observations and small number of economies mean …
The paper develops a neural network model for SPX option pricing.
Modeling the evolution of a financial index as a stochastic process is a problem awaiting a full, satisfactory solution since it was first formulated by Bachelier in 1900. Here it is shown that the scaling with time of the return probability density function sampled from the historical series suggests a successful mode…