A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops a learning model predictive controller for competitive racing.
DeepRacing uses neural networks to predict trajectories for autonomous racing in video games.
Improved race prediction model outperforms existing methods.
A new model predicts race places using changeover-times and log-normal distributions.
Improved surname geocoding and name supplements enhance race imputation accuracy.
In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting demographics of geographic units given geotagged Tweets that are composed within these units. Traditional survey methods that offer demographics estimates are usually limited in terms of geographic resolution, geographic boundaries, and time intervals. Thus, it would…
To answer questions about racial inequality and fairness, we often need a way to infer race and ethnicity from names. One way to infer race and ethnicity from names is by relying on the Census Bureau's list of popular last names. The list, however, suffers from at least three limitations: 1. it only contains last names…
Black women and white men have the highest income disparity in the U.S.
Study removes bias from chest X-ray embeddings using orthogonalization.
Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions, and parole decisions-- is the perceived "neutrality" of computers. It is argued…
RankNet forecasts car racing positions with improved accuracy and stability.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
Develops a method to quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems.
A new method assesses algorithmic fairness using game theory.
Modeling horse race betting odds with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
Deep RL drone trained to compete against classical path planning in drone racing.
Ordinal regression falls between discrete-valued classification and continuous-valued regression. Ordinal target variables can be associated with ranked random variables. These random variables are known as order statistics and they are closely related to ordinal regression. However, the challenge of using order statis…
Assessing the fairness of a decision making system with respect to a protected class, such as gender or race, is challenging when class membership labels are unavailable. Probabilistic models for predicting the protected class based on observable proxies, such as surname and geolocation for race, are sometimes used to …
The performance of classification algorithms with a massive and highly imbalanced data stream depends upon efficient balancing strategy. Some techniques of balancing strategy have been applied in the past with Batch data to resolve the class imbalance problem. This paper proposes a new incremental data balancing framew…
We consider the problem of a neural network being requested to classify images (or other inputs) without making implicit use of a "protected concept", that is a concept that should not play any role in the decision of the network. Typically these concepts include information such as gender or race, or other contextual …
Societal bias towards certain communities is a big problem that affects a lot of machine learning systems. This work aims at addressing the racial bias present in many modern gender recognition systems. We learn race invariant representations of human faces with an adversarially trained autoencoder model. We show that …
BBE simulates sports betting exchanges for data generation.
fairadapt uses causal inference to mitigate algorithmic bias in data pre-processing.
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
New social and economic activities massively exploit big data and machine learning algorithms to do inference on people's lives. Applications include automatic curricula evaluation, wage determination, and risk assessment for credits and loans. Recently, many governments and institutions have raised concerns about the …
Research on interference has provided evidence that the formation of dependencies between non-adjacent words relies on a cue-based retrieval mechanism. Two different models can account for one of the main predictions of interference, i.e., a slowdown at a retrieval site, when several items share a feature associated wi…
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
There is a growing body of work that proposes methods for mitigating bias in machine learning systems. These methods typically rely on access to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. However, this raises two significant challenges: (1) protected attributes may not be available or it may not be legal to use…
New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.
Kernel-based machine learning approaches are gaining increasing interest for exploring and modeling large dataset in recent years. Gaussian process (GP) is one example of such kernel-based approaches, which can provide very good performance for nonlinear modeling problems. In this work, we first propose a grey-box mode…
This work improves autonomous racing by creating diverse opponents and adapting risk.
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed b…
Medical imaging models may encode demographic attributes without violating fairness, depending on the approach.
New method detects bias in AI models that generate data.
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
Classifiers and rating scores are prone to implicitly codifying biases, which may be present in the training data, against protected classes (i.e., age, gender, or race). So it is important to understand how to design classifiers and scores that prevent discrimination in predictions. This paper develops computationally…
New method detects bearing faults using multivariate statistical process control.
This paper focuses on the horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum (IMOM) with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Using the A-share individual stocks in the Chinese market from January 1997 to December 2017, we first evaluate the performance of the weekly momentum based on raw returns and idiosyncratic r…
Importance sampling (IS) is a common reweighting strategy for off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. While it is consistent and unbiased, it can result in high variance updates to the weights for the value function. In this work, we explore a resampling strategy as an alternative to reweighting. We propose Im…
Guidelines for the management of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) recommend the use of risk stratification models to identify patients most likely to benefit from cholesterol-lowering and other therapies. These models have differential performance across race and gender groups with inconsistent behavior a…
New approach to counterfactual reasoning avoids demographic interventions.
Study examines fairness in machine learning for credit scoring.
Machine-learning driven safety-critical autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars, must be able to detect situations where its trained model is not able to make a trustworthy prediction. Often viewed as a black-box, it is non-obvious to determine when a model will make a safe decision and when it will make an erron…
Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made that are unfairly biased against certain subpopulations, for example those of a …
Proposes a method to achieve quantile fairness in predictions.
Fairness measures fail in predictive settings that intentionally shift outcomes.
The insurance industry uses predictions based on customer characteristics, but this can lead to discrimination. We propose using Wasserstein barycenters to mitigate biases.