Reduces gender classification bias by learning race-invariant face representations.
problem Societal bias in gender recognition systems.
method Adversarially trained autoencoder model to learn race-invariant face representations.
result Achieved a significant drop of over 40% in racial bias surrogate metric with race invariant representations.
Develops a method to quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems.
problem Quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems considering criminality and multi-stage interactions.
method Multi-stage causal framework incorporating criminality.
result Identifies three canonical scenarios of racial bias in law enforcement.
Develops a learning model predictive controller for competitive racing.
problem Lack of exploration in state space and complexity in obstacle avoidance.
method Explores state space through multiple initializations and develops a new method for convex terminal set selection.
result Yields a richer terminal safe set and maintains convexity.
Modeling horse race betting odds with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
problem Analyzing how herding and informed bettors affect odds movements.
method Deriving an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process from vote shares and odds movements data.
result Identified microscopic and macroscopic patterns in odds convergence.
Medical imaging models may encode demographic attributes without violating fairness, depending on the approach.
problem Discrimination in medical imaging models due to encoding demographic attributes.
method Examined marginal and class-conditional representation invariance, traditional fairness notions, and counterfactual fairness.
result Demographically invariant models may not necessarily be fair, and encoding demographic attributes can be advantageous.
Deep RL drone trained to compete against classical path planning in drone racing.
problem Optimizing long-term drone racing strategies using reinforcement learning.
method Used PPO algorithm on a simulated quadrotor in a racing environment created with AirSim.
result Deep RL agent outperformed classical path planning in drone racing competitions.
DeepRacing uses neural networks to predict trajectories for autonomous racing in video games.
problem Training algorithms for high-speed autonomous racing in realistic environments.
method Developed a virtual testbed using F1 video games, trained neural networks to predict trajectories and control commands.
result Trajectory prediction outperforms end-to-end control methods in autonomous racing simulations.
To answer questions about racial inequality and fairness, we often need a way to infer race and ethnicity from names. One way to infer race and ethnicity from names is by relying on the Census Bureau's list of popular last names. The list, however, suffers from at least three limitations: 1. it only contains last names…
Black women and white men have the highest income disparity in the U.S.
problem Income inequality between black women and white men in the USA
method Dynamic microeconomic model, analyzing black and white population income since 1930
result Black females and white males are poles of overall income inequality
Improved race prediction model outperforms existing methods.
problem Improving race prediction using voter registration data.
method Trained BiLSTM model on voter registration data and created an ensemble.
result Achieved up to 36.8% higher OOS F1 scores than previous models.
RankNet forecasts car racing positions with improved accuracy and stability.
problem Forecasting rank positions in car racing, especially considering pit stops.
method Cause-effect decomposition in RankNet, incorporating probabilistic forecasting.
result RankNet outperforms baselines significantly, improving MAE by over 10%.
Improved surname geocoding and name supplements enhance race imputation accuracy.
problem Census data problems affecting race imputation accuracy.
method Fully Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (fBISG) and name supplements.
result Significant improvement in race imputation accuracy across all racial groups.
ProMoD models human race drivers with probabilistic movement primitives and neural networks.
problem Challenging task of modeling human driver behavior due to variability and complexity.
method Modular framework with Probabilistic Movement Primitives, clothoids, and neural networks.
result Significant advantages in imitation accuracy and robustness compared to other algorithms.
BBE simulates sports betting exchanges for data generation.
problem Creating synthetic data for betting strategy testing.
method Agent-based model (ABM) for sports betting exchange simulation.
result Simulation runs up to 1000 times faster with GPU.
Lognormal distribution used for predicting team rankings in an orienteering relay race.
problem Predicting final team rankings in an orienteering relay race.
method Used lognormal distribution and Fenton-Wilkinson approximations for order statistics.
result Accurate predictions of team rankings using order statistics.
A new model predicts race places using changeover-times and log-normal distributions.
problem Predicting race places in orienteering races.
method Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model based on log-normal leg-times and changeover-times.
result The model accurately predicts race places with smaller root-mean-square-errors.
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
Proposes a method to learn invariant representations for interpretability and fairness.
problem Learning invariant representations to achieve interpretability in algorithmic fairness.
method Adversarially trained model with null-sampling procedure to produce invariant representations in the data domain.
result Shows effectiveness on image and tabular datasets.
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
problem Rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to shared catastrophic risk.
method Continuous-time preemption game with shared catastrophic externalities, showing suicide region and welfare distortion.
result The suicide region widens as catastrophic risk grows, and two mechanisms can close it.
This work improves autonomous racing by creating diverse opponents and adapting risk.
problem Balancing performance and safety in autonomous racing environments.
method Developed a self-play method using replica-exchange Markov chain Monte Carlo for diverse opponents and a distributionally robust bandit optimization for adaptive risk adjustment.
result Demonstrated real-time motion-planning methods achieving speeds comparable to Formula One racecars.
Study compares SPG and PPO for racing games, finding SPG more stable with weighted actions.
problem Training continuous action reinforcement learning algorithms for racing games.
method Introduced novel racing environment, tested SPG and PPO with modifications and experience replay.
result Experience replay not beneficial for PPO in continuous action spaces, SPG more stable with weighted actions.
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed b…
In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting demographics of geographic units given geotagged Tweets that are composed within these units. Traditional survey methods that offer demographics estimates are usually limited in terms of geographic resolution, geographic boundaries, and time intervals. Thus, it would…
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
Assessing the fairness of a decision making system with respect to a protected class, such as gender or race, is challenging when class membership labels are unavailable. Probabilistic models for predicting the protected class based on observable proxies, such as surname and geolocation for race, are sometimes used to …
Study removes bias from chest X-ray embeddings using orthogonalization.
problem Reduces bias in chest X-ray embeddings due to protected features.
method Orthogonalization technique to remove protected feature effects.
result Orthogonalization removes bias and makes predictions of protected attributes infeasible.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning avoids demographic interventions.
problem Limitations of traditional counterfactual reasoning in AI systems.
method Backtracking counterfactual approach instead of interventional.
result Allows addressing social concerns without demographic interventions.
Paper introduces threshold invariant fairness to ensure equitable predictions across different groups.
problem Machine learning models can be unfair to certain groups based on sensitive attributes.
method Proposes threshold invariant fairness and uses two approximation methods to equalize risk distributions.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in alleviating threshold sensitivity in fairness models.
China and EU race to develop hydrogen for energy transition.
problem Developing hydrogen for sustainable energy systems.
method Comparative analysis framework using key factors.
result Customized solutions for local hydrogen industries.
The performance of classification algorithms with a massive and highly imbalanced data stream depends upon efficient balancing strategy. Some techniques of balancing strategy have been applied in the past with Batch data to resolve the class imbalance problem. This paper proposes a new incremental data balancing framew…
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
problem Lack of real data for AI/ML in betting exchanges.
method Agent-based simulation model of a sports-betting exchange.
result Generates large, high-resolution synthetic data for AI/ML.
In the automation of many kinds of processes, the observable outcome can often be described as the combined effect of an entire sequence of actions, or controls, applied throughout its execution. In these cases, strategies to optimise control policies for individual stages of the process might not be applicable, and in…
Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions, and parole decisions-- is the perceived "neutrality" of computers. It is argued…
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
problem Mitigating risk in sports betting investments.
method Modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion, with modifications for practical risk control.
result Adaptive fractional Kelly method is suitable across various sports settings.
"Overlearning" means that a model trained for a seemingly simple objective implicitly learns to recognize attributes and concepts that are (1) not part of the learning objective, and (2) sensitive from a privacy or bias perspective. For example, a binary gender classifier of facial images also learns to recognize races…
Paper debiases multiple word embedding biases simultaneously.
problem Reduction of multiple biases in word embeddings.
method Joint multiclass debiasing approach using Word Embeddings Association Test (WEAT).
result Demonstrates reduction or complete elimination of bias in word embeddings.
Despite their impressive performance on diverse tasks, neural networks fail catastrophically in the presence of adversarial inputs---imperceptibly but adversarially perturbed versions of natural inputs. We have witnessed an arms race between defenders who attempt to train robust networks and attackers who try to constr…
fairadapt uses causal inference to mitigate algorithmic bias in data pre-processing.
problem Mitigating algorithmic bias in machine learning predictions.
method Causal graphical model and observed data to address counterfactual questions.
result The method can help eliminate discrimination and justify fair decisions.
Study analyzes financial distributions and inequality in professional cycling teams.
problem Financial inequality and concentration among cycling teams.
method Rank-size law and various inequality indices applied to Tour de France data.
result Financial gains distribution is hyperbolic with a decay exponent of about -1, contrary to Pareto principle.
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Ensemble Kalman methods improve climate model calibration from noisy observations.
problem Calibrating parameters in complex climate models from noisy data.
method Comparing ensemble Kalman methods for efficiency in climate model calibration.
result Ensemble Kalman methods are more efficient and robust for parameter learning in climate models.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
problem Determining if machine learning can outperform human decision-making in crowd lending.
method Using data from Prosper.com, a sophisticated ML algorithm was trained to predict loan defaults and investment returns.
result The ML algorithm outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns, especially for risky loans.
A new method assesses algorithmic fairness using game theory.
problem Evaluating algorithmic fairness without proprietary data.
method Cohort Shapley value, a game-theoretic approach.
result Identifies individual impact of protected attributes.
In recent years, car makers and tech companies have been racing towards self driving cars. It seems that the main parameter in this race is who will have the first car on the road. The goal of this paper is to add to the equation two additional crucial parameters. The first is standardization of safety assurance --- wh…
This paper is part of an ongoing investigation of "pragmatic information", defined in Weinberger (2002) as "the amount of information actually used in making a decision". Because a study of information rates led to the Noiseless and Noisy Coding Theorems, two of the most important results of Shannon's theory, we begin …
A new ranking model with dynamic covariates improves statistical analysis.
problem Statistical ranking with varying covariates across comparisons.
method Introduced a Plackett--Luce framework for covariate-assisted ranking, providing conditions for model identifiability and MLE existence, and developing an alternating maximization algorithm.
result Uniform consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) under suitable assumptions on graph design and covariates.
Two critical questions about intergenerational outcomes are: one, whether significant barriers or traps exist between different social or economic strata; and two, the extent to which intergenerational outcomes do (or can be used to) affect individual investment and consumption decisions. We develop a model to explicit…
Perceptual ad-blocking is a novel approach that detects online advertisements based on their visual content. Compared to traditional filter lists, the use of perceptual signals is believed to be less prone to an arms race with web publishers and ad networks. We demonstrate that this may not be the case. We describe att…