Proposes QQE for transforming and embedding data distributions.
problem Transforming and embedding data distributions for better representation or visualization.
method Quantile-Quantile Embedding (QQE) using quantile-quantile plot concept.
result QQE allows for better discrimination of classes in some cases.
Axiomatizes Λ-quantiles, a generalization of quantiles.
problem Found an axiomatization for Λ-quantiles. method Characterized Λ-quantiles using the locality property. result Local changes in distribution do not affect Λ-quantiles. New algorithm for estimating multivariate quantiles using stochastic optimal transport.
problem Estimating multivariate quantiles from data.
method Stochastic algorithm for entropic optimal transport in Banach spaces, using Fourier coefficients.
result Almost sure convergence of the stochastic algorithm in infinite-dimensional Banach spaces.
Proposes a new feature preprocessing method using kernel density integral transformation.
problem Feature preprocessing for tabular data in machine learning and statistics.
method Kernel density integral transformation as a drop-in replacement or improved alternative to min-max scaling and quantile transformation.
result Frequently outperforms min-max scaling and quantile transformation with hyperparameter tuning.
A new method models volatile financial time series using v-transforms and copulas.
problem Modeling volatile financial time series with standard methods.
method v-transforms and copulas to describe and estimate time series with arbitrary marginal distributions and copula dynamics.
result The model replicates stylized facts of financial return series and facilitates risk quantification.
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.
Develops quantile diffusions for risk analysis in continuous time.
problem Stochastic dynamics of quantiles in continuous time.
method Construction of quantile processes through composite maps of distribution and quantile functions.
result Powerful method for interpreting quantile process characteristics in terms of model parameters.
In this paper we consider the problem of calculating the quantiles of a risky position, the dynamic of which is described as a continuous time regime-switching jump-diffusion, by using Fourier Transform methods. Furthermore, we study a classical option-based portfolio strategy which minimizes the Value-at-Risk of the h…
Paper develops robust estimation for loss models using L-moments.
problem Estimating parameters of loss models in non-life insurance.
method Develops novel, efficient and robust estimation procedure based on L-moments.
result Estimation method is more robust and efficient than current methods.
Unified approach for estimating quantiles of potential outcomes using inverse estimating equations.
problem Estimating quantiles of potential outcomes for causal inference.
method Inverse estimating equations and moment function.
result Unified approach to estimate mean and quantiles of potential outcomes.
IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.
problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.
SUQUAN optimizes quantile normalisation for better downstream analysis.
problem Optimizing target distribution for better downstream analysis.
method Optimizes target distribution jointly with other parameters in the analysis.
result SUQUAN outperforms standard quantile normalisation on various data types.
Simple quantile regression method wins GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting competition.
problem Probabilistic load forecasting in electricity markets.
method Quantile regression applied to log-transformed hourly load data, considering seasonalities and long-term trend.
result Method placed second in open data track and fourth in definite data track.
Paper tackles distributed quantile regression with improved efficiency and support recovery.
problem Challenges in distributed estimation and support recovery for high-dimensional linear quantile regression.
method Transformed quantile regression into least-squares optimization, applied double-smoothing approach, developed efficient algorithm.
result Achieved near-oracle convergence rate and high support recovery accuracy.
Constructs bivariate quantiles using vine copulas for multivariate analysis.
problem Need for research in multivariate quantiles, especially for bivariate responses.
method Constructs bivariate (conditional) quantiles using vine copula based bivariate regression model with a novel tree sequence graph structure.
result Avoids typical shortfalls of regression like transformations, interactions, collinearity, and quantile crossings.
Paper tackles distributed high-dimensional regression with quantile loss, overcoming heavy-tailed noise challenges.
problem High-dimensional linear regression with heavy-tailed noise.
method Adopting quantile regression loss, transforming response variable, and using gradient information for distributed estimation.
result Proposed distributed estimator achieves near-oracle convergence rate and supports recovery without machine number restrictions.
Paper proposes differentially private quantile regression for high-dimensional data.
problem Privacy concerns in big data with heterogeneous sensitive personal information.
method Newton-type transformation for reformulating quantile regression into an OLS problem; iterative updates for estimation; debiased estimator for inference; communication-efficient bootstrap.
result Near-optimal statistical accuracy and formal privacy guarantees achieved.
A new method for estimating conditional distributions from regression models.
problem Limited understanding of conditional distributions from regression models.
method Transformation Forests, based on a parametric family of distributions and transformation trees.
result Models allow for broader inference, including computation of prediction intervals.
Novel SVM approach for extreme quantile regression with heavy tailed inputs.
problem Learning from extreme values in quantile regression.
method Support Vector Machine framework for handling high-dimensional and nonlinear settings.
result Established finite-sample learning guarantees under mild regularity assumptions.
New method reduces complexity of fuzzy decision trees in Big Data.
problem Reducing complexity in multi-way fuzzy decision trees for Big Data classification.
method Two-step process: 1) Probability integral transform, 2) Ruspini strong fuzzy partition.
result Up to 6 million fewer leaves with similar classification accuracy.
Decision tree predictions improve with better split point interpolation methods.
problem Interpolation errors in decision tree models can lead to misclassification.
method Comparing alternative split point interpolation methods and quantile transformation.
result Quantile transformation reduces interpolation error by up to half.
New formula for implied volatility from Black-Scholes model.
problem Computing implied volatility from Black-Scholes model.
method Analytical solution using inverse Gaussian distribution.
result Explicit formulas for implied volatility with high precision.
An efficient adaptive direct numerical integration (DNI) algorithm is developed for computing high quantiles and conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of compound distributions using characteristic functions. A key innovation of the numerical scheme is an effective tail integration approximation that reduces the truncation …
This paper solves robust utility maximization with unknown claim dependencies.
problem Investor optimizes utility in the presence of an intractable contingent claim.
method Quantile optimization approach, transforming dynamic problem into static concave optimization.
result Optimal payoffs depend on ambiguity attitude, market conditions, and claim characteristics.
Improved quantile estimation using semi-supervised data.
problem Quantile estimation in high-dimensional settings with limited labeled data.
method Proposes semi-supervised estimators using a flexible imputation strategy and debiasing step.
result Improved estimation accuracy compared to supervised methods, robust to misspecification.
A fast, accurate method for estimating extreme quantiles in insurance and operational risk models.
problem Estimating extreme quantiles of compound loss distributions in insurance and operational risk models.
method Interpolated Single Loss Approximation (ISLA) and modified ISLA (MISLA).
result MISLA is comparable in speed and accuracy to the best competing method (PE2) and is easier to implement.
Paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods for cryptocurrency volatility.
problem Inadequate point forecasting methods for capturing full spectrum of volatility outcomes.
method Combines multiple base models (statistical and machine learning) to estimate conditional quantiles of cryptocurrency realized variance.
result QRS method outperforms sophisticated alternatives for Bitcoin volatility forecasting.
CPP solves chance constrained optimization problems with a framework that combines samples and quantile lemma.
problem Chance constrained optimization problems with constraints on random variables.
method CPP framework using samples and quantile lemma to transform into deterministic problem.
result CPP provides a posteriori guarantees on constraint satisfaction and can handle different types of chance constraints.
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
problem Forecasting geopolitical events from sparse, bursty data.
method Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) + Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP).
result Consistently outperforms standalone TFT in long-range horizons.
Study improves probabilistic circuits using transformations for better predictions.
problem Predictive limitations of probabilistic circuits in robotic scenarios.
method Integrates transformations into joint probability trees, extending their capabilities.
result Achieves higher likelihoods with fewer parameters on various data sets.
HFformer outperforms LSTM in high-frequency trading with multiple signals.
problem Improving high-frequency trading performance using deep learning models.
method Introducing HFformer, a hybrid Transformer model for time series forecasting.
result HFformer achieves higher cumulative PnL than LSTM in backtesting.
A new pseudo-metric uses data depth to compare probability distributions.
problem Designing a metric between probability distributions for machine learning applications.
method Extension of univariate quantiles to multivariate spaces, using data depth and Hausdorff distance.
result The pseudo-metric is robust, factorizes translations, and has good behavior under transformations.
Investigates methods to regularize quantile regression for accurate predictions.
problem Improving accuracy and fairness in quantile regression predictions.
method Various regularization techniques including expected pinball loss, monotonicity constraints, and rate constraints.
result Deep lattice networks can maintain non-crossing quantiles and improve calibration and fairness.
A new method avoids quantile crossing in time series forecasting.
problem Quantile crossing in joint quantile regressions.
method Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions (I(S)QF) with neural network.
result Improves consistency and accuracy in time series forecasting.
New risk measures for quantiles under ambiguity improve risk sharing.
problem Risk optimization under ambiguity using quantiles.
method Introducing Choquet quantiles and Choquet Expected Shortfall.
result Optimal allocations for quantile agents under ambiguity.
Paper finds robust Λ-quantiles equal to extremal distributions.
problem Investigating robust models for Λ-quantiles with partial loss information. method Extending classical quantiles using Λ-quantiles and applying results from robust quantiles. result Robust Λ-quantiles equal to Λ-quantiles of extremal distributions. SCQRNN prevents quantile crossing and improves computational efficiency.
problem Quantile crossing issue in regression models.
method Integrates ad hoc sorting in training to prevent quantile crossing and enhance computational efficiency.
result SCQRNN achieves faster convergence and non-intersecting quantiles.
Study on flow-based methods for capturing tail properties in densities.
problem Flow-based methods struggle with capturing non-Gaussian tails.
method Characterize and adapt triangular maps to capture tail properties.
result Flow models lack the ability to capture non-Gaussian tails.
New online quantile estimation methods using Hermite series.
problem Incremental quantile estimation for data streams.
method Hermite series estimators for static and dynamic quantile estimation.
result Analytical expression for CDF and consistency results for quantile estimation.
Develops a method to ensure accurate quantile forecasts across multiple levels.
problem Ensuring accurate quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even under distribution shifts.
method Multi-level quantile tracker (MultiQT) wraps around any forecaster to produce calibrated forecasts.
result Guaranteed calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even against adversarial shifts.
This paper proposes a method to automatically infer the quantile parameter in machine learning.
problem Estimating the quantile parameter in asymmetric loss functions.
method Jointly infers the quantile parameter and function parameters using convexity properties and a gradient boosting algorithm.
result The proposed method can automatically recover the quantile parameter and improve function parameter recovery.
Proposes a method to estimate conditional quantiles using both high-fidelity and low-fidelity data.
problem Difficulty in estimating conditional quantiles with scarce high-fidelity data.
method Two-stage, model-agnostic method using local quantile link and level function estimation.
result The method yields more accurate quantile estimates and tighter prediction intervals.
CurveRL optimizes large model reasoning by reweighting prompts based on their rank and density.
problem Improving large language model reasoning through context reweighting.
method Formulated prompt reweighting as a functional derivative, proposing CurveRL based on quantile coordinate transform.
result CurveRL consistently outperforms existing methods across multiple benchmarks.
The paper proposes a method for predicting equity premium using penalized quantile regression.
problem Heteroscedasticity and heavy-tails in equity premium prediction.
method Penalized quantile regression with consistent variable selection across multiple quantiles.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmark methods and reveals interesting predictor relationships.
Proposes engression for extrapolation in distributional regression.
problem Challenging extrapolation problem in nonlinear regression.
method Neural network-based distributional regression.
result Engression successfully performs extrapolation under certain assumptions.
Improved conformalized quantile regression for adaptive prediction intervals.
problem Lack of adaptiveness in the conformal step of conformalized quantile regression.
method Cluster explanatory variables by permutation importance and apply k conformal steps.
result Improved prediction intervals are more adaptive to heteroscedasticity.
Proposes a deep learning method to ensure non-crossing quantiles in conditional distributions.
problem Non-crossing quantiles issue in deep learning QR models.
method Generic deep learning algorithm enforcing quantile monotonicity.
result Ensures non-crossing quantiles up to machine precision.