This work introduces a new probabilistic process for regularization in machine learning.
problem Developing a probabilistic framework for Lq regularization. method Generalizing q-exponential distribution to Q-exponential (Q-EP) process. result Q-EP process provides a flexible prior for functions with sharper penalties.
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade dur…
Modeling financial markets with a novel order flow model.
problem Inconsistent parameter values from long-range memory estimators.
method Tsallis q-exponential distribution for limit order cancellation times.
result Improved accuracy in predicting financial market dynamics.
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of a bubble period with those of the anti-bubble period in stock markets. We investigate the statistical properties of daily data for the Nikkei 225 index in the 28-year period from January 1975 to April 2003, corresponded to the periods of bubbles and anti-bub…
The recurrence interval of extreme returns can be predicted with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the occurrence of extreme financial returns.
method Recurrence interval analysis of extreme returns, using q-exponential distribution. result The recurrence interval of extreme returns follows a q-exponential distribution, leading to more accurate forecasts. Being able to forcast extreme volatility is a central issue in financial risk management. We present a large volatility predicting method based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between volatilities exceeding a certain threshold Q for a fixed expected recurrence time τQ. We find that the recurrence inter…
We proposed the agent-based model of financial markets where agents (or traders) are represented by three-state spins located on the plane lattice or social network. The spin variable represents only the individual opinion (advice) that each trader gives to his nearest neighbors. In the model the agents can be consider…
New method calibrates reference distributions for bounded support.
problem Lack of principled method for bounded-support statistical reference distributions.
method Formulated maximum entropy on projective space of nonnegative measures.
result Prescribed acceptance region uniquely determines deformation parameter.
Coupled entropy corrects flaws in Tsallis entropy for complex systems.
problem Misinterpretation of generalized temperature and entropy.
method Derived from generalized Pareto and Student's t distributions.
result Provides balanced measure of uncertainty for complex systems.
Deep Q-EP improves image modeling by stacking Q-EP layers.
problem Inhomogeneous subjects like images with edges are poorly modeled by standard Gaussian processes.
method Introducing shallow Q-EP as a latent variable model, stacking multiple layers, and applying sparse approximation and scalable variational strategy.
result Deep Q-EP outperforms state-of-the-art deep probabilistic models in image modeling.
In this paper we present an interacting-agent model of stock markets. We describe a stock market through an Ising-like model in order to formulate the tendency of traders getting to be influenced by the other traders' investment attitudes [1], and formulate the traders' decision-making regarding investment as the maxim…
A pricing principle is introduced for non-attainable claims in incomplete markets.
problem Pricing non-attainable contingent claims in incomplete markets.
method Distorted Radon-Nikodym derivative and Tsallis relative entropy over a family of equivalent martingale measures.
result The pricing principle is closely related to backward stochastic differential equations and is arbitrage-free and time-consistent.
A plethora of natural, artificial and social systems exist which do not belong to the Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical-mechanical world, based on the standard additive entropy SBG and its associated exponential BG factor. Frequent behaviors in such complex systems have been shown to be closely related to q-stati…
New spatiotemporal Besov process improves CT image reconstruction and other inverse problems.
problem Handling abrupt changes and sharp contrasts in spatiotemporal data.
method Generalized Besov process (STBP) with Q-exponential process for temporal correlation.
result STBP outperforms traditional methods in dynamic reconstruction and inverse problems.
Order cancellation process plays a crucial role in the dynamics of price formation in order-driven stock markets and is important in the construction and validation of computational finance models. Based on the order flow data of 18 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003, we investigate the empiric…
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
problem Limited applicability of existing path methods in machine learning.
method Develops a family of paths derived from a generalized mean, including geometric and arithmetic mixtures.
result Empirical gains in Bayesian inference and generative model evaluation.
New model predicts financial tail events using RIA-EVT-Copula.
problem Predicting financial tail events for risk management.
method RIA-EVT-Copula framework combining POT, RIA, and copulas.
result Improved accuracy in predicting financial extremes.
The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process captures the so-called "volatility clustering" and the asymptotic power-law prob…
Optimal stock portfolio strategy using information theory and Tsallis statistics.
problem Finding the optimal stock portfolio growth rate.
method Developed a strategic optimal portfolio based on information theory and Tsallis statistics.
result The wealth growth is modeled by a q-exponential function. The paper explores solutions to the distributional Bellman equation in reinforcement learning.
problem Distributional reinforcement learning considers complete return distributions, not just expected returns.
method Study existence and uniqueness of solutions to general distributional Bellman equations, linking them to multivariate affine equations.
result Any solution to a distributional Bellman equation can be derived from a multivariate affine distributional equation.
Proposes vMF distribution for skewed elliptical distributions.
problem Skewed distributions not adequately modeled by symmetric distributions.
method Introduces von-Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution to represent skewed elliptical distributions.
result vMF distribution provides an explicit and simple probability representation of skewed elliptical distributions.
This paper examines how the choice of prior distribution affects likelihoods of out-of-distribution inputs in deep generative models.
problem Mismatch between prior and data distributions causes deep generative models to assign higher likelihoods to out-of-distribution inputs.
method Proposes using a mixture distribution as a prior to make likelihoods of out-of-distribution inputs more sensitive.
result A mixture prior lowers the out-of-distribution likelihood with respect to real image data sets.
Study calculates tail risk for various mixture distributions.
problem Estimating tail risk for complex distribution mixtures.
method Analyzes tail conditional expectation for location-scale mixtures of elliptical distributions.
result Developed methods for calculating tail risk in various distributions.
We realise the first and second Grushin distributions as symmetry reductions of the 3-dimensional Heisenberg distribution and 4-dimensional Engel distribution respectively. Similarly, we realise the Martinet distribution as an alternative symmetry reduction of the Engel distribution. These reductions allow us to derive…
New wealth distribution model based on κ-deformation of Gamma distribution.
problem Modeling wealth distribution in heterogeneous kinetic exchange models.
method Proposed a new four-parameter statistical distribution based on κ-deformation of the Generalized Gamma distribution. result The new distribution accurately represents wealth distribution in heterogeneous kinetic exchange models.
This study suggests replacing Ising distribution with Cox distribution.
problem Handling correlated binary data efficiently.
method Exploring conditions for replacing Ising distribution with Cox distribution as a latent variable model.
result The Ising distribution can be treated as a latent variable model with a quasi-normal distribution.
New algorithms for learning under s-concave distributions, including Pareto and t-distributions.
problem Learning under broad and natural generalizations of log-concave distributions, including fat-tailed ones.
method Introduce new convex geometry tools to study s-concave distributions and use these properties to provide bounds on learning quantities. result Significantly generalize prior results for margin-based, disagreement-based, and passive learning of intersections of halfspaces.
Method uses optimal transport to complete distributional matrices.
problem Matrix completion for distributional data.
method Nearest neighbors in Wasserstein space.
result Method recovers distributions in Wasserstein metric.
Income and wealth distribution affect stability of a society to a large extent and high inequality affects it negatively. Moreover, in the case of developed countries, recently has been proven that inequality is closely related to all negative phenomena affecting society. So far, Econophysics papers tried to analyse in…
Study clusters distributions with known or unknown clusters using distribution testing.
problem Cluster distributions that are ε-far in total variation. method Distribution testing approach to establish upper and lower bounds on sample complexity.
result Achieves tight sample complexity bounds for all regimes (up to a logarithmic factor).
Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with step size compared to normal distribution. Thus it is essential to cut-off these di…
A new distributed learning method for high-dimensional linear classification.
problem Efficiently performing linear classification on large-scale, high-dimensional data.
method Feature-distributed stochastic variance reduced gradient (FD-SVRG) for high-dimensional linear classification.
result FD-SVRG outperforms other distributed methods in terms of communication cost and wall-clock time.
A new distribution family extends the α-stable distribution with a degree of freedom parameter.
problem Lack of moments in the α-stable distribution. method Wright function framework to combine and extend distribution families.
result Generalized α-stable distribution with valid moments. Paper develops a new method to improve model calibration under distribution shifts.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification with different training and test distributions.
method Develops multi-domain temperature scaling to handle distribution shifts.
result Outperforms existing methods on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
A new clustering method preserves data distribution.
problem Distorted cluster centers in k-means clustering.
method Distributional Clustering method ensuring cluster centers mimic data distribution.
result Cluster centers converge to data generating distribution.
New class of heavy-tailed distributions shows weighted averages dominate individual variables.
problem Understanding and comparing risks in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Introducing a new class of heavy-tailed distributions and proving stochastic dominance relations.
result Weighted averages of random variables in this class are stochastically larger than individual variables.
Researchers derived formulas for joint moments of elliptical distributions.
problem Calculating joint moments of elliptical distributions.
method Used Stein's lemma and two different methods to derive expressions.
result New formulae for expectations of product of normally distributed random variables and simplified expressions for other distributions.
Paper proposes a new method for designing materials using deep learning.
problem Designing high-performance material distributions from given distributions.
method Iterative process of selecting, generating, and merging material distributions using a deep generative model.
result The method improves material performance through iterative refinement.
One-shot algorithm for feature-distributed kernel PCA reduces communication costs.
problem Efficiently perform kernel PCA in distributed computing environments.
method Inspired by dual relationship between sample-distributed and feature-distributed scenarios, proposes a one-shot algorithm for feature-distributed kernel PCA.
result The algorithm provides high-quality results with low communication costs, especially when eigenvalues decay fast.
A new distributed clustering framework using distributional kernel.
problem Clustering in distributed networks with arbitrary shapes, sizes, and densities.
method Distributed Clustering based on Distributional Kernel (KDC) using similarity of distributions.
result KDC guarantees equivalent clustering outcomes to centralized methods, reduces runtime, and discovers arbitrary clusters.
Paper finds how many neurons are needed to approximate histogram distributions.
problem How many neurons are needed to approximate a target probability distribution?
method Examined for uniform input distribution and histogram target distributions, using efficient neural net construction.
result Obtained a new upper bound on the number of required neurons, strictly better than previous bounds.
Paper analyzes origami slope gaps and their distribution, finding a unique pattern.
problem Analyzing slope gaps in origami surfaces.
method Derived slope gap distribution of a specific origami by considering return times under the horocycle flow.
result Found a unique distribution of origami slope gaps, not a sum of scaled Hall distributions.
Paper introduces a new distributional successor measure for reinforcement learning.
problem Learning the distributional consequences of behavior in reinforcement learning.
method Formulates distributional successor measure as a distribution over distributions, proposes algorithm to learn it from data.
result Demonstrates zero-shot risk-sensitive policy evaluation.
TonY simplifies distributed ML job management.
problem Managing distributed ML jobs is complex and resource-intensive.
method TonY is an open-source orchestrator for distributed ML jobs.
result TonY simplifies distributed ML job management.
New distributions allow greedy arm selection in sparse bandit problems.
problem Sparse contextual bandit problem with sparse parameters and feature distributions.
method Introduced new distribution classes and demonstrated that mixtures of these distributions are also greedy-applicable.
result Greedy algorithm applicable to a wider range of arm feature distributions, including those with origin-asymmetric support.
The paper extends distributions by singular curves, revealing structural equivalences.
problem Extending (3,6)-distributions using singular curves. method Using data from singular curves, the paper extends (3,6)-distributions to higher rank distributions. result The equivalence of classification problems for four extended distribution classes.
Random matrix ensembles yield uniform distributions on manifolds.
problem Understanding distributions of vectors in random matrix ensembles.
method Analyzing eigenvalues, singular values, and Autonne-Takagi vectors of various random matrix ensembles.
result Uniform distributions on specific manifolds for different types of random matrix ensembles.
Study on continuous sequence classification with distribution uncertainty.
problem Classifying continuous sequences with varying distribution uncertainty.
method Proposes distribution-free tests for three test designs: fixed-length, sequential, and two-phase tests.
result Error probabilities decay exponentially fast for all test designs.