Study asset price bubbles in markets with short sales prohibitions and model uncertainty.
problem Investigating asset price bubbles in markets with short sales prohibitions and model uncertainty.
method Introducing a novel definition of the fundamental price and analyzing the types and characterization of bubbles using a new fundamental theorem of asset pricing and superhedging duality.
result Two distinct types of bubbles arise depending on the maturity structure of the asset, and conditions for their existence are provided.
The supplement proves the existence and properties of a dynamical system related to asset price bubbles.
problem Modeling asset price bubbles using liquidity and random matching.
method Proves the existence and properties of a dynamical system D.
result Existence and properties of the dynamical system D are proven.
Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.
problem Self-sustained price bubbles driven by adaptive trading behavior.
method Multi-agent model illustrating price bubble formation and statistical properties.
result Price bubbles can be driven by adaptive investment strategies.
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of a bubble period with those of the anti-bubble period in stock markets. We investigate the statistical properties of daily data for the Nikkei 225 index in the 28-year period from January 1975 to April 2003, corresponded to the periods of bubbles and anti-bub…
Model predicts Bitcoin bubbles with network properties and LPPLS model.
problem Predicting Bitcoin bubbles and crashes using network properties and LPPLS model.
method Generalized Metcalfe's law and LPPLS model.
result Bubbles are detected with a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth pattern.
Study on soap bubble clusters, showing manifold properties.
problem Understanding the space of planar soap bubble clusters.
method Analysis of soap bubble clusters as generalized Voronoi partitions.
result The space of planar clusters with positive second variation is an n-dimensional manifold.
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the log periodic powe…
Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.
problem Capturing the micro-level dynamics of investor behavior and panic selling.
method Introducing a cubic function of market momentum to model trend-following and sudden crashes.
result The model successfully replicates complex, nonlinear bubble dynamics.
Study on optimal bubble riding with price-dependent entry times in a mean field game model.
problem Optimal bubble riding with price-dependent entry times.
method Mean field game of controls with common noise and random entry time, existence result obtained through discretization and limit analysis.
result Existence of equilibrium in the mean field game model.
Degenerations of rank-two bundles on threefolds lead to isolated point singularities, with rigidity and bubbling properties.
problem Degenerations of rank-two vector bundles on complex threefolds to a rank-two torsion-free sheaf with an isolated point singularity.
method Proving a rigidity identity and using it to obtain smoothability obstructions and construct local smoothings.
result Smoothability obstructions and local smoothings are obtained, with a rigidity identity linking algebraic bubbling multiplicity and Ext-length.
In this paper we investigate quantitatively statistical properties of ensemble of {\it land prices} in Japan in the period from 1981 to 2002, corresponding to the period of bubbles and crashes. We find that the tail of the distributions of ensembles of the land prices in the high price range is well described by a powe…
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of intermittent dynamics generating power law distributions. Using insights on the beha…
Research finds double bubbles in Grushin plane with specific geometric properties.
problem Addressing double bubble problem in Grushin plane with anisotropic perimeter.
method Existence via direct method and characterization via first variation techniques.
result Angles at intersections satisfy 120-degree rule, with differences for α=0 and α=1.
The study proves manifold properties related to positive scalar curvature.
problem Proving the non-existence of metrics with positive scalar curvature on certain manifolds.
method Use of generalized soap bubbles and prescribed-mean-curvature functionals.
result Proves non-existence of metrics with positive scalar curvature on specific manifolds.
Study analyzes convergence of harmonic maps into compact locally CAT(1) spaces.
problem Analyzing convergence of harmonic maps with energy bounds.
method Bubble tree convergence, exploiting local convexity properties of CAT(1) spaces.
result Energy quantization and no-neck property demonstrated for harmonic maps.
Study reveals hubs play key role in Bitcoin bubbles.
problem Understanding systemic risk in Bitcoin network during price surges.
method Analysis of Bitcoin transaction network history from 2011-2013.
result Hubs significantly increase systemic risk during Bitcoin bubbles.
Study predicts 2015 Chinese stock market bubble using LPPLS model.
problem Detecting and predicting the 2015 Chinese stock market bubble.
method Calibrated Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, Lomb spectral analysis, Unit-root tests, CMA-ES optimization.
result The LPPLS model can predict the actual critical day (tc) two months before the bubble crash.
Study on Yang-Mills heat flow on R4 bundles, showing infinite time bubbling.
problem Understanding the long-time behavior of Yang-Mills heat flow on R4 bundles. method Construction of initial data and globally defined solutions, proof of existence of bubble-tower solutions.
result Demonstrates infinite time bubbling for Yang-Mills heat flow on R4 bundles. Unified model connects rational and local martingale bubbles to equity risk premium.
problem Connecting two types of financial bubbles and their impact on risk premium.
method Developed a unified modeling framework that includes rational and local martingale bubbles and relates them to equity risk premium.
result Local martingale bubble model includes rational bubble as a special case and relates both to equity risk premium.
Characterizes critical points in convex double and triple bubbles.
problem Critical points of double and triple bubbles in convex shapes.
method Characterization through stationary varifolds in Rn and R3. result Characterization of critical points in convex shapes.
Survey on soap bubble partitions and their stability.
problem Characterizing and stabilizing soap bubble partitions.
method Survey and analysis of recent research.
result Recent advancements in multi-bubble isoperimetric minimizers and stability.
Bubbles are essential in certain economic models with high growth and low interest rates.
problem Asset price bubbles exceeding fundamental values.
method Developed the Bubble Necessity Theorem in economic models with specific growth and interest rate conditions.
result Bubbles are inevitable in certain economic scenarios with high growth and low interest rates.
Study Yang-Mills connections on four-manifolds, derive obstructions to bubbling.
problem Bubbling configurations in Yang-Mills fields on four-manifolds.
method Derived Pohozaev type compatibility between weak limit connection and bubbles, involving Weyl tensor.
result Obstructions to certain bubbling configurations on CP2.
Model predicts crashes in rational expectation bubbles using percolation theory.
problem Predicting crashes in rational expectation bubbles.
method Micro-founded model based on percolation theory of trader networks.
result Estimates crash hazard rate via percolation clusters and power law.
Rational bubbles form in nonstationary models of real assets.
problem Understanding the emergence of rational bubbles in real assets.
method Developed economic models showing bubbles inevitably emerge in nonstationary systems.
result Bubbles in real assets are inevitable and can be analyzed using mathematical theorems.
Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
problem Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
method Perturbations of geodesic standard double bubbles centered at critical points of the ambient scalar curvature and aligned along eigen-vectors of the ambient Ricci tensor, with general multiplicity results via Lusternik-Schnirelman theory.
result Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
Smooth solutions and classification of Dirac-Einstein equations on 3-manifolds.
problem Analyzing solutions of Dirac-Einstein equations on R3. method Proving smoothness and asymptotic behavior, classifying ground state solutions.
result Scalar part is given by Aubin-Talenti functions, spinorial part is conformal image of −21-Killing spinors on S3. Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.
problem Characterizing speculative bubbles in discrete-time models.
method Introduces a new definition based on discounted stock price behavior and provides probabilistic characterizations.
result Speculative bubbles in discrete time are linked to solutions of a linear Volterra integral equation.
Degenerate solutions found in 2D H-system bubbles with higher degrees.
problem Existence of degenerate solutions in H-system bubbles with degree ≥ 3.
method Algebraic characterization of degenerate bubbles.
result Degenerate solutions can exist for H-system bubbles with degree ≥ 3.
Study detects Chinese stock market bubbles using LPPLS confidence indicator.
problem Early detection of stock market bubbles in China.
method LPPLS confidence indicator applied to CSI 300 index data.
result LPPLS detects positive and negative bubbles with high accuracy.
In 1D, optimal double bubbles are intervals or spheres.
problem Finding the least-perimeter way to enclose two volumes with a log-convex density.
method Analyzing the density function's log-convexity to determine the optimal configuration.
result In 1D, the optimal configuration can be intervals or spheres.
Continuous time analysis of bubble formation in harmonic maps.
problem Understanding bubble formation in harmonic map heat flow.
method Continuous time approach to analyze bubbling sequences.
result Solutions approach multi-bubble configurations in continuous time.
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corr…
This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that docum…
On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009 in this ongoing experime…
Solves the quintuple bubble problem on spheres and Euclidean spaces.
problem Minimizing total perimeter of multiple bubbles enclosing fixed volumes.
method Developed spectral theory of Jacobi operator and new bubble deformation method.
result Confirmed quintuple bubble conjecture on spheres and Euclidean spaces.
Hong Kong's housing prices predicted to slump for a decade.
problem Predicting the future of Hong Kong's property market.
method Analysis of past episodes and regularities in other countries.
result Predicts a decade-long slump in Hong Kong's housing market.
This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that documen…
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …
New method detects asset price bubbles in young markets.
problem Detecting asset price bubbles in young, immature markets.
method Proposed a simple but effective statistical method to capture and quantify bubbles.
result New method applicable to immature markets without sufficient data.
The paper studies associative Smith maps and proves their properties, including regularity and energy gap.
problem Analyzing properties of associative Smith maps from 3-manifolds into 7-manifolds.
method Informed by holomorphic curves, the paper proves an ε-regularity theorem and uses the Smith equation's compensation phenomenon.
result Sequences of associative Smith maps with bounded 3-energy can be conformally rescaled to yield bubble trees of such maps.
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
problem Determining if AI investments are a bubble or a sustainable technology.
method Hybrid review and diagnostic framework combining asset pricing foundations and modern econometric methods.
result AI investments show both genuine fundamentals and bubble-like fragilities.
Detects negative oil bubble and positive USD bubble in 2014-2016.
problem Detecting market bubbles in oil and USD.
method Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) methodology with λ≈2. result Strong anti-correlation between oil price and USD.
Study detects Bitcoin bubbles and predicts crashes using adaptive multilevel time series detection.
problem Detecting and predicting Bitcoin price bubbles and crashes.
method Adaptive multilevel time series detection based on LPPLS model.
result LPPLS confidence indicator provides effective warnings for bubble detection and crash prediction.
The paper analyzes potential housing bubbles in China using statistical tests.
problem Detecting potential housing bubbles in China's real estate market.
method Applied Engle-Granger cointegration test and Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model.
result Evidence of unsustainable speculative behaviors in Chinese real estate markets.
Study on metric bubbles in complex dimensions 1 and 2.
problem Understanding degenerations of Kähler-Einstein metrics.
method Investigation of metric bubble trees for non-collapsing cases.
result Description of a conjectural higher-dimensional picture.
Modeling stochastic arbitrage bubbles in Black-Scholes framework.
problem Analyzing arbitrage bubbles in financial markets.
method Developed a generalized Black-Scholes equation with stochastic arbitrage bubbles.
result The Black-Scholes model is a low-energy limit of a stochastic model.
Study predicts NFT bubbles using LPPL model.
problem Tackles bubble prediction of NFTs.
method Applied logarithmic periodic power law (LPPL) model to NFT price data.
result NFTs, Decentraland, and ArtBlocks are in bubbles, while Ethereum Name Service is in a negative bubble.