We introduce a novel approach for predicting the progression of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis from 3D spine models reconstructed from biplanar X-ray images. Recent progress in machine learning have allowed to improve classification and prognosis rates, but lack a probabilistic framework to measure uncertainty in the …
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48 results for “progression prediction”
New method predicts AD progression using MEG brain networks.
problem Early diagnosis and prediction of Alzheimer's disease progression.
method MG2G, a deep learning method that maps brain networks into a latent space.
result MG2G detects subtle brain connectivity patterns and predicts AD progression.
Bayesian meta-learning predicts Alzheimer's disease progression.
problem Predicting individual Alzheimer's disease progression from limited data.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that dynamically predicts disease score distributions.
result Bayesian meta-learner outperforms single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, especially for long-term predictions.
Study finds little progress in medical machine learning benchmarks over 3 years.
problem Lack of meaningful progress in medical machine learning benchmarks for structured healthcare data.
method Comprehensive review and meta-analysis of benchmarks in medical machine learning for structured data.
result Deep recurrent models perform only better than logistic regression on certain clinical prediction tasks.
Improves disease progression prediction using auxiliary surrogate labels and health markers.
problem Challenges in predicting disease progression due to unknown true disease states.
method Integrates hidden Markov model with time-varying discriminative classification model.
result Significant improvement in distinguishing LBD from AD using objective markers.
A framework to explain decoder-only sequence classification models using intermediate predictions.
problem Explaining predictions of decoder-only sequence classification models.
method Progressive Inference framework with Single Pass-Progressive Inference and Multi Pass-Progressive Inference methods.
result Significantly better attributions compared to prior work on text classification tasks.
Ensemble model predicts AD progression from CN status with high accuracy.
problem Early prediction of clinical progression from cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease.
method Ensemble survival analysis combining penalized Cox regression, advanced survival models, and aggregation techniques.
result Ensemble model achieved peak C-index of 0.907 and integrated time-dependent AUC of 0.904, outperforming baseline models.
Study uses machine learning and survival analysis to predict CKD progression.
problem Early detection and management of CKD to reduce ESRD risk.
method Combines machine learning and classical statistical models to identify novel CKD progression predictors.
result Deep learning models outperform other methods in predicting CKD progression.
Deep learning predicts AMD progression from longitudinal fundus images.
problem Predicting future stages of age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
method InceptionV3 feature vectors, interval scaling, Recurrent Neural Network.
result 0.878 sensitivity, 0.887 specificity, 0.950 AUC.
Prediction of the progression of subcortical brain structures in Alzheimer's disease from baselinecs.CV
We propose a method to predict the subject-specific longitudinal progression of brain structures extracted from baseline MRI, and evaluate its performance on Alzheimer's disease data. The disease progression is modeled as a trajectory on a group of diffeomorphisms in the context of large deformation diffeomorphic metri…
Develops a machine learning model to predict ALS progression and assistive device use.
problem Challenges in predicting clinically meaningful milestones in ALS.
method Integrates longitudinal ALSFRS-R trajectories with survival modeling.
result Generates individualized survival curves and predicts wheelchair-free survival.
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease impairing a person's ability to perform day to day activities. The clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease are characterized by heterogeneity in age, disease span, progression rate, impairment of memory and cognitive abilities. Due to these variabilities, …
Most approaches to machine learning from electronic health data can only predict a single endpoint. Here, we present an alternative that uses unsupervised deep learning to simulate detailed patient trajectories. We use data comprising 18-month trajectories of 44 clinical variables from 1908 patients with Mild Cognitive…
Conventional inclusion criteria used in osteoarthritis clinical trials are not very effective in selecting patients who would benefit from a therapy being tested. Typically majority of selected patients show no or limited disease progression during a trial period. As a consequence, the effect of the tested treatment ca…
Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically interpretable representations of disease pathophysiology, but not both. In this pape…
Study develops models to predict severe COVID-19 progression.
problem Identifying high-risk individuals for severe COVID-19.
method Developed survival models using EHR data, learning clinical concepts to improve accuracy.
result Learned clinical concepts improve model performance, boosting C-index to 0.858.
Proposes a neural network for dynamic risk prediction of AMD using longitudinal fundus images.
problem Dynamic risk prediction for progressive eye disorders like AMD.
method tdCoxSNN, a time-dependent Cox survival neural network integrating CNN.
result Demonstrates commendable predictive performance in AMD and PBC datasets.
Framework predicts patient risk progression over time.
problem Predicting how patient risk changes over time.
method Supervised contrastive learning framework with embedding properties.
result Framework outperforms baselines in mortality and cognitive impairment datasets.
Transformers improve Alzheimer's disease progression prediction by accounting for irregular biomarker histories.
problem Difficult prediction of medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression due to tied clinical scores and irregular biomarker observations.
method Developed a residual gap-aware transformer that combines statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning.
result The proposed model reduces mean error and improves prediction-observation correlation compared to baseline models.
Deep learning has demonstrated success in health risk prediction especially for patients with chronic and progressing conditions. Most existing works focus on learning disease Network (StageNet) model to extract disease stage information from patient data and integrate it into risk prediction. StageNet is enabled by (1…
In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the course of a progressive disease, such as cancer or Alzheimer's. Progressive diseases often start with mild symptoms that might precede a diagnosis, and each patient follows their own trajectory. Patient trajectories exhibit wild variability, which can be associate…
LHM integrates expert ODEs with neural ODEs for disease progression prediction.
problem Predicting disease progression under medications using limited data.
method Integrating expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs.
result LHM consistently outperforms previous methods, especially in small sample regimes.
This work designs an active world model learning system with progress-based curiosity.
problem Learning compact world models from visual exploration.
method Constructs a curious agent in a 3D environment, using -Progress as a curiosity signal.
result The -Progress-driven controller outperforms state-of-the-art exploration strategies.
Deep Learning of Semi-Competing Risk Data via a New Neural Expectation-Maximization Algorithmstat.ML
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
problem Predicting semi-competing risk outcomes in lung cancer.
method Neural Expectation-Maximization algorithm for multi-state outcomes.
result Estimates non-parametric baseline hazards and risk functions.
Early prognosis of Alzheimer's dementia is hard. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) typically precedes Alzheimer's dementia, yet only a fraction of MCI individuals will progress to dementia, even when screened using biomarkers. We propose here to identify a subset of individuals who share a common brain signature highly p…
Ability to quantify and predict progression of a disease is fundamental for selecting an appropriate treatment. Many clinical metrics cannot be acquired frequently either because of their cost (e.g. MRI, gait analysis) or because they are inconvenient or harmful to a patient (e.g. biopsy, x-ray). In such scenarios, in …
Prognostics or early detection of incipient faults is an important industrial challenge for condition-based and preventive maintenance. Physics-based approaches to modeling fault progression are infeasible due to multiple interacting components, uncontrolled environmental factors and observability constraints. Moreover…
Enhances disease progression modeling using LLMs for complex brain connectivity.
problem Inaccurate predictions of disease spread due to oversimplified brain connectivity models.
method Uses LLMs to synthesize multi-modal relationships and learn disease trajectories from longitudinal data.
result Superior prediction accuracy and interpretability compared to traditional methods.
Study compares neural and statistical models for Parkinson's disease progression from voice data.
problem Difficult statistical analysis of longitudinal voice biomarkers due to subject correlation, small cohorts, and varied disease trajectories.
method Evaluated Neural Mixed Effects (NME), Generalized Neural Network Mixed Models (GNMMs), and semi-parametric Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs).
result GAMMs achieve stronger predictive performance and retain interpretable smooth effects and subject-level structure.
Gradient span algorithms show consistent progress in high dimensions.
problem Understanding consistent training progress in large machine learning models.
method Proving deterministic behavior of gradient span algorithms on Gaussian random functions.
result Gradient span algorithms have asymptotically deterministic behavior in high dimensions.
CoI framework models clinical feature interactions, revealing temporal dependencies and enhancing transparency.
problem Capturing latent, time-varying dependencies among clinical features in time-series data.
method Chain-of-Influence (CoI) framework constructs an explicit, time-unfolded graph of feature interactions.
result Achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUROC of 0.960 on CKD progression and 0.950 on ICU mortality).
AdaptiveNet tackles disease progression prediction in rheumatoid arthritis using deep neural networks.
problem Predicting disease progression in rheumatoid arthritis using clinical data.
method AdaptiveNet, a novel recurrent neural network architecture, that handles multiple lists of different events and missing data.
result AdaptiveNet outperforms classical baselines in disease progression prediction.
Survey on recent deep learning models for stock market prediction.
problem Building effective prediction models for stock market.
method Review of various data sources, neural network structures, and evaluation metrics.
result Highlighting recent progress and future research directions.
We propose a novel approach for the generation of polyphonic music based on LSTMs. We generate music in two steps. First, a chord LSTM predicts a chord progression based on a chord embedding. A second LSTM then generates polyphonic music from the predicted chord progression. The generated music sounds pleasing and harm…
Rolling Diffusion improves video prediction by progressively corrupting frames based on their temporal position.
problem Improving video prediction accuracy by accounting for temporal dynamics.
method A sliding window denoising process that assigns more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence.
result Rolling Diffusion outperforms standard diffusion models in tasks with complex temporal dynamics.
In this paper, we introduce the use of a personalized Gaussian Process model (pGP) to predict the key metrics of Alzheimer's Disease progression (MMSE, ADAS-Cog13, CDRSB and CS) based on each patient's previous visits. We start by learning a population-level model using multi-modal data from previously seen patients us…
A new method uses asymmetric Shapley values to assess gene importance in clinical prediction models.
problem Clinical prediction models struggle with assessing the importance of high-dimensional features like genomics.
method Derive efficient algorithms to compute local and global asymmetric Shapley values for a mixed-dimensional prediction model.
result Asymmetric Shapley values provide a more suitable alternative to quantify feature importance in clinical prediction models.
Arguably, unsupervised learning plays a crucial role in the majority of algorithms for processing brain imaging. A recently introduced unsupervised approach Deep InfoMax (DIM) is a promising tool for exploring brain structure in a flexible non-linear way. In this paper, we investigate the use of variants of DIM in a se…
With the increasing availability of wearable devices, continuous monitoring of individuals' physiological and behavioral patterns has become significantly more accessible. Access to these continuous patterns about individuals' statuses offers an unprecedented opportunity for studying complex diseases and health conditi…
Prediction of disease onset from patient survey and lifestyle data is quickly becoming an important tool for diagnosing a disease before it progresses. In this study, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) questionnaire is used to predict the onset of type II diabetes. An ensemble model…
The transparent cornea is the window of the eye, facilitating the entry of light rays and controlling focusing the movement of the light within the eye. The cornea is critical, contributing to 75% of the refractive power of the eye. Keratoconus is a progressive and multifactorial corneal degenerative disease affecting …
Uncertainty-Calibrated Prediction of Randomly-Timed Biomarker Trajectories with Conformal Bandsstat.ML
Method predicts biomarker trajectories with uncertainty bands for Alzheimer's disease.
problem Uncertainty in biomarker predictions poses risks in clinical deployment.
method Conformal prediction for randomly-timed biomarker trajectories.
result Conformal bands achieve desired coverage and are tighter than baseline.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
HMRNN combines HMMs and neural networks for Alzheimer's disease forecasting.
problem Improving disease progression modeling with hidden states not fully known.
method Developed HMRNN combining HMMs and recurrent neural networks.
result HMRNN improves disease forecasting and offers novel clinical interpretation.
Model predicts COVID-19 progression with interpretability.
problem Accurate and credible forecasting of COVID-19 progression.
method Integrates machine learning into disease modeling, uses interpretable encoders.
result More accurate forecasts than state-of-the-art alternatives.
Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progressphysics.soc-ph
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumul…
New method reduces high-dimensional data to key features.
problem Challenges of high-dimensional data analysis and interpretability.
method Randomized search to produce subspaces, ensemble of models for variable selection.
result Outperforms existing methods in prediction and variable selection.
RLVR training dynamics reveal an implicit curriculum that shapes learning progression.
problem Understanding how RLVR overcomes the long-horizon barrier.
method Developed a theory of training dynamics for RLVR on transformers, using Fourier analysis on finite groups.
result Mixed-difficulty training naturally follows an implicit curriculum, shaping the learning progression from easy to hard.