We present an algorithm for the decomposition of periodic financial return data into orthogonal factors of expected return and "systemic", "productive", and "nonproductive" risk. Generally, when the number of funds does not exceed the number of periods, the expected return of a portfolio is an affine function of its pr…
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48 results for “product expectation”
A Modeling Approach of Return and Volatility of Structured Investment Products with Caps and Floorsq-fin.ST
This study examines return and risk of Puerto Rico stock market IRA products.
problem Performance of Puerto Rico stock market IRA products not previously studied.
method Parametric modeling approach estimating conditional expected return and variance.
result PRIRAs underperform the stock market but carry substantial risk.
Index expectation curvature K(x) = E[i_f(x)] on a compact Riemannian 2d-manifold M is the expectation of Poincare-Hopf indices i_f(x) and so satisfies the Gauss-Bonnet relation that the interval of K over M is Euler characteristic X(M). Unlike the Gauss-Bonnet-Chern integrand, such curvatures are in general non-local. …
Novel numerical scheme for G-heat equation with uncertainty.
problem Efficiently quantify G-expectation for financial products.
method Proposes a novel numerical scheme for the two-dimensional G-heat equation.
result The scheme is monotonic, stable, and convergent, showing high efficiency.
A Kronecker product model is the set of visible marginal probability distributions of an exponential family whose sufficient statistics matrix factorizes as a Kronecker product of two matrices, one for the visible variables and one for the hidden variables. We estimate the dimension of these models by the maximum rank …
Study shows climate change can cause a 'run on fossil fuels' affecting prices and production.
problem Impact of climate change expectations on fossil fuel markets and prices.
method Dynamic, general equilibrium model of climate-change-linked transition risk.
result Climate change expectations can lead to either increased or decreased fossil fuel prices, depending on economic responses.
In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in [1], which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its w…
Efficiently predicts long-time dynamics of quantum spin models using MLP regression.
problem Challenges in calculating long-time expectation values for quantum spin models.
method Utilized a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model for regression on matrix product states (MPS) expectation values.
result Significantly reduced computational cost for generating long-time dynamics while maintaining high accuracy.
We prove a Chern-Lashof type formula computing the expected number of critical points of smooth function on a smooth manifold randomly chosen from a finite dimensional subspace equipped with a Gaussian probability measure. We then use this formula this formula to find the asymptotics of the e…
Study optimal investment-reinsurance strategies in equity-linked insurance products using Stackelberg game theory.
problem Optimizing investment and reinsurance strategies in equity-linked insurance products with capital guarantees.
method Modelled as a Stackelberg game where reinsurer acts as leader and insurer as follower, with general utility functions and power utility functions analyzed.
result Derive Stackelberg equilibrium for general utility functions and calculate it explicitly for power utility functions, finding reinsurer optimizes premium to incentivize maximal reinsurance purchase.
We analyze four structured products that have caused severe losses to investors in recent years. These products are: return optimization securities, yield magnet notes, reverse exchangeable securities, and principal-protected notes. We describe the basic structure of these products, analyze them probabilistically using…
Study on coskewness under varying dependence uncertainty.
problem Impact of dependence uncertainty on coskewness.
method Explicit bounds and numerical approximation for product expectation; introduction of standardized rank coskewness.
result Introduced standardized rank coskewness as a measure invariant under transformations.
The Weil-Petersson metric for the moduli space of Riemann surfaces has negative sectional curvature. Surfaces represented in the complement of a compact set in the moduli space have short geodesics. At such surfaces the Weil-Petersson metric is approximately a product metric. An almost product metric has sections with …
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
problem Predicting economic activity using existing measures like surveys.
method Extracted managerial expectations from transcripts using generative AI.
result AI Economy Score predicts economic activity up to 10 quarters ahead.
Paper tackles conditional expectation estimation using compactification operators.
problem Estimating conditional expectations from product of two random variables.
method Operator theoretic approach using kernel integral operators in reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result Solutions allow numerical approximation and convergence of data-driven implementations.
An Optimal Policy for Dynamic Assortment Planning Under Uncapacitated Multinomial Logit Modelsstat.ML
We study the dynamic assortment planning problem, where for each arriving customer, the seller offers an assortment of substitutable products and customer makes the purchase among offered products according to an uncapacitated multinomial logit (MNL) model. Since all the utility parameters of MNL are unknown, the selle…
In this paper we examine the Laplacian on the product of two asymptotically hyperbolic (or conformally compact, as they are often called) spaces from the point of view of geometric scattering theory. In particular, we describe the asymptotic behavior of the resolvent applied to Schwartz functions and that of the resolv…
We propose a stylized model of production and exchange in which long-term investors set their production decision over a horizon τ , the "time to produce", and are liquidity constrained, while financial investors trade over a much shorter horizon δ (<< τ ) and are therefore more duly informed on the exogenous shocks af…
Automatic Backward Differentiation for American Monte-Carlo Algorithms (Conditional Expectation)q-fin.CP
In this note we derive the backward (automatic) differentiation (adjoint [automatic] differentiation) for an algorithm containing a conditional expectation operator. As an example we consider the backward algorithm as it is used in Bermudan product valuation, but the method is applicable in full generality. The method …
We develop Morse theory for manifolds with boundary. Besides standard and expected facts like the handle cancellation theorem and the Morse lemma for manifolds with boundary, we prove that, under a topological assumption, a critical point in the interior of a Morse function can be moved to the boundary, where it splits…
This paper develops a valuation model for private companies.
problem Lack of pricing and hedging models for private companies.
method Dynamic Gordon growth model, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators, Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm.
result Closed-form pricing and hedging formulas for private companies.
The paper proposes a new method for product recommendation that considers revenue contributions and user similarity.
problem High dimensionality and sparsity in user-item data, especially in terms of revenue contributions.
method The approach encodes revenue contributions in the user-item matrix and computes customer similarity using suitable distance measures.
result The method segments users based on revenue-based similarity and supports recommendations aligned with profitability objectives.
We study the optimal trading policies for a wind energy producer who aims to sell the future production in the open forward, spot, intraday and adjustment markets, and who has access to imperfect dynamically updated forecasts of the future production. We construct a stochastic model for the forecast evolution and deter…
Model analyzes competitive pricing strategies in large markets of perishable products.
problem Maximizing profits in a competitive market of perishable products.
method Mean-field competition model, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, iterative numerical algorithm.
result Properties of equilibrium pricing strategies and market dynamics.
Covariance as a commutatormath.ST
Covariance is shown as a commutator in random variable calculus.
problem Expressing covariance as a commutator of operators.
method Demonstrated through commutator identities involving expectations and products of functions.
result Revealed the underlying Lie algebraic structure in efficient influence curve calculus.
Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different technologies since improvement in performance during the diffusion process increases th…
We propose a novel, theoretically-grounded, acquisition function for Batch Bayesian optimization informed by insights from distributionally ambiguous optimization. Our acquisition function is a lower bound on the well-known Expected Improvement function, which requires evaluation of a Gaussian Expectation over a multiv…
A new matrix concentration inequality for random products of matrices.
problem Understanding the behavior of random matrix products under bounded independent positive semidefinite matrices.
method Developed a non-asymptotic concentration inequality for the product of matrices.
result The inequality provides a bound on the deviation of the matrix product from its expected value.
A mathematical paradox shows secant planes don't always form a tangent plane, but some analogies hold with a specific vector product.
problem Secant planes of a two-variable smooth function do not always form a tangent plane, even for simple polynomials.
method Analogies with the one-variable case are explored, using Clifford's geometric vector product.
result Some analogies with the one-variable case still hold in the multi-variable context with a specific vector product.
We consider the problem of multi-product dynamic pricing, in a contextual setting, for a seller of differentiated products. In this environment, the customers arrive over time and products are described by high-dimensional feature vectors. Each customer chooses a product according to the widely used Multinomial Logit (…
We consider market players with tail-risk-seeking behaviour as exemplified by the S-shaped utility introduced by Kahneman and Tversky. We argue that risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are ineffective in constraining such players. We show that, in many standard market models, product d…
We introduce a measure for estimating the best risk-return relation of power production in wind farms within a given time-lag, conditioned to the velocity field. The velocity field is represented by a scalar that weighs the influence of the velocity at each wind turbine at present and previous time-steps for the presen…
Dynamic pricing learns demand model from sparse product networks.
problem Minimizing revenue loss in a large network of products with unknown demand parameters.
method Combines optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty and PAC-Bayesian approaches.
result Achieves asymptotically optimal performance in terms of network size and time horizon.
A new unbiased Hessian estimator for expectation-based objectives.
problem Estimating Hessian for objectives with non-reparameterizable nodes.
method GO Hessian estimator for expectation-based objectives.
result GO Hessian provides unbiased and low-variance estimation of Hessian.
New method reduces mixture model evaluation cost for large models.
problem Computational infeasibility of evaluating all mixture components.
method Combining EM and Metropolis-Hastings for stochastic sampling.
result Significantly reduced computational cost for large models.
Neural networks assess asset-liability risk over time.
problem Challenging valuation of portfolios with complex products.
method Neural network approach for conditional portfolio valuation.
result Effective risk assessment for banking and insurance portfolios.
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker), at economic sectors level of the NUTs III of mainland Portugal, from 1995 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2005 (taking in count the data availability and the Portuguese and European context), c…
This paper computes fixed point Floer cohomology for Dehn twists on surfaces.
problem Computing fixed point Floer cohomology for Dehn twists.
method Developed tools for computing fixed point Floer cohomology and product for Dehn twists in all dimensions.
result Splitting of the product and differential into local and Morse-theoretic contributions.
We study a stylized dynamic assortment planning problem during a selling season of finite length . At each time period, the seller offers an arriving customer an assortment of substitutable products and the customer makes the purchase among offered products according to a discrete choice model. The goal of the selle…
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function o…
Reinsurance can help life insurers maintain higher capital guarantees without losing utility.
problem Decreasing capital guarantees in life insurance products.
method Dynamic investment-reinsurance optimization problem with simultaneous Value-at-Risk and no-short-selling constraints. Introduced guarantee-equivalent utility gain for comparison.
result Optimally managed reinsurance allows insurers to offer higher capital guarantees without reducing expected utility.
NSBI approach detects Higgs trilinear coupling with high luminosity upgrade constraints.
problem Determining the Higgs trilinear self-coupling via off-shell Higgs production.
method Hybrid neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) incorporating SMEFT and quantum interference effects.
result NSBI achieves sensitivity close to theoretical optimum for Higgs trilinear self-coupling.
Proposes balancing revenue and environmental impact in assortment planning.
problem Maximizing revenue while considering environmental impact in retail assortment planning.
method Multi-objective optimization using Higg Material Sustainability Index.
result Shows it's possible to have lower environmental impact without significant revenue loss.
Paper improves SDR estimation speed and conditions.
problem Improving sufficient dimension reduction for multi-index models.
method Estimating expected smoothed gradient outer product.
result Achieves fast parametric convergence rate of .
What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behavior? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, we approach these topics by exploring the consequences of two simple hypotheses about risk. The first is a common-sense…
The Relation Between Global Migration and Trade Networksphysics.soc-ph
In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks. We focus our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity. To assure comparability ac…
US firms improve ESG performance in response to China trade shock.
problem Impact of China trade shock on US ESG performance.
method Trade policy experiment exploiting tariff changes.
result Greater import competition from China increases US firm ESG performance.
One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product attributes, and supply network. In this paper, our goal is to develop robust demand pr…