Study improves dividend discount model using VAR process.
problem Improving dividend discount models for better predictions.
method Introduced a Gordon growth model based on Vector Autoregressive Process (VAR).
result Two Propositions related to the new model.
Improved Gaussian process experts model for complex data.
problem Limitations of standard Gaussian processes: scalability and predictive performance.
method Proposes a new mixture model of Gaussian process experts based on kernel stick-breaking processes.
result Improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
problem Modeling high-frequency financial data with complex residual distributions.
method Introduces self and mutually exciting point process with discretely Markovian dynamics.
result Flexible residual distributions improve intensity modeling and high-frequency data estimation.
Develops information geometry for Lévy processes in finance.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of Lévy processes for financial modeling.
method Deriving α-divergences from Lévy triplets, identifying Fisher information matrix and α-connection. result Identifies statistical implications and differential-geometric structures of Lévy processes.
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…
New method for fast inference in diffusion models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in diffusion models.
method Variational Gaussian Process, exponential family description, convex optimization.
result Improved fast algorithm for learning model parameters.
GRM uses graph neural networks to score process activity relevance.
problem Improving business processes with performance measures.
method Graph Relevance Miner (GRM) based on graph neural networks.
result Quantitatively evaluated relevance scores with four datasets.
Elliptical processes extend Gaussian models with heavier tails.
problem Regression and classification with non-Gaussian likelihoods or heavy tails.
method Spline normalizing flow for variational inference of elliptical distributions.
result Elliptical processes outperform Gaussian processes in non-Gaussian settings.
Efficient methods for Lévy models using SINH-regular processes.
problem Efficient numerical methods for evaluating Lévy models.
method Defining SL-processes and sSL-processes, deriving properties of characteristic exponent, and showing all popular Lévy processes can be subordinated to Brownian motion.
result All crucial properties of characteristic exponent are consequences of a specific representation, and all popular Lévy processes are SL- or sSL-subordinated Brownian motion.
Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.
problem Need for models with fat tails and computational tractability.
method Represent elliptical distributions as continuous mixtures of Gaussian distributions, derive closed-form expressions for marginal and conditional distributions.
result Elliptical processes offer advantages in robust regression compared to Gaussian processes.
Proposes logistic-beta process for modeling dependent probabilities with beta marginals.
problem Limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for dependent random probabilities.
method Introduces logistic-beta process with logistic transformation and beta marginals, capable of modeling dependence in discrete and continuous domains.
result Logistic-beta processes enable effective posterior inference and design of computationally tractable dependent Bayesian nonparametric models.
Flexible Hawkes model with Gaussian process self-effects for time-dependent data.
problem Modeling time-dependent point processes with history dependence and self-effects.
method Extended Hawkes process with Gaussian process self-effects for both excitatory and inhibitory types, using Bayesian inference and mean-field variational approximation.
result Efficient approximate Bayesian inference achieved via data augmentation and mean-field variational approach.
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
problem Modeling mutual inhibition and nonlinearity in asynchronous event sequences.
method Introduces Mamba Hawkes Process using Mamba state space architecture.
result MHP outperforms existing models across various datasets.
Neural Processes combine the strengths of neural networks and Gaussian processes to achieve both flexible learning and fast prediction in stochastic processes. However, a large class of problems comprises underlying temporal dependency structures in a sequence of stochastic processes that Neural Processes (NP) do not e…
The paper explores risk-minimization for exponential additive models, providing mathematical expressions and numerical examples.
problem Risk-minimization in incomplete markets for exponential additive models.
method Derive explicit mathematical expressions for local risk-minimization strategies in exponential additive models.
result Provide necessary conditions for deriving expressions and confirm integrability conditions for specific models.
Proposes LSGP for better graph signal representation.
problem Local variations in graph process characteristics.
method Locally stationary graph process (LSGP) model.
result LSGP provides accurate signal representations.
This study bridges discrete and continuous state spaces using the Ehrenfest process and diffusion models.
problem Understanding the relationship between discrete and continuous state spaces in stochastic processes.
method Investigates time-continuous Markov jump processes on discrete state spaces and their correspondence to state-continuous diffusion processes.
result The time-reversal of the Ehrenfest process converges to the time-reversed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, bridging discrete and continuous state spaces.
Proposes first privacy-preserving method for estimating Hawkes processes.
problem Estimating point process models with sensitive personal data raises privacy concerns.
method Proposes differential privacy for event stream data and two optimization algorithms.
result Efficiently estimates Hawkes process models with privacy and utility guarantees.
This paper extends subordinated models to include stochastic time changes, improving financial modeling.
problem Improving financial models to better capture market features like jump clustering and volatility persistence.
method Subordinated processes with Levy and stochastic arrival mechanisms.
result Strong consistency and asymptotic normality results for VG and VGSA processes under various stochastic arrival models.
Tree structures are ubiquitous in data across many domains, and many datasets are naturally modelled by unobserved tree structures. In this paper, first we review the theory of random fragmentation processes [Bertoin, 2006], and a number of existing methods for modelling trees, including the popular nested Chinese rest…
We present a class of Lévy processes for modelling financial market fluctuations: Bilateral Gamma processes. Our starting point is to explore the properties of bilateral Gamma distributions, and then we turn to their associated Lévy processes. We treat exponential Lévy stock models with an underlying bilateral Gamma pr…
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
GNP models predictive correlations and outperforms NPs.
problem Training and understanding of Neural Processes.
method Proposed a new model, Gaussian Neural Process (GNP), which incorporates translation equivariance and provides universal approximation guarantees.
result Demonstrates encouraging performance and provides universal approximation guarantees.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
New model estimates higher-order interactions in stochastic processes using lower-dimensional projections.
problem Estimating higher-order interaction effects in stochastic processes with limited data.
method Additive Poisson Process (APP) combines information geometry and generalized additive models to model intensity functions in lower dimensions.
result The model can estimate higher-order intensity functions with sparse data.
Paper introduces a hybrid GPR model for more interpretable RUL prediction in aeroengine.
problem Challenges in interpreting and modeling uncertainty in RUL prediction models.
method Modified Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with temporal feature extraction.
result Effective prediction of RUL intervals with transparent feature significance.
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to …
Convolutional Neural Processes improve data efficiency in neural processes.
problem Improving data efficiency in neural processes for small datasets.
method Convolutional Neural Processes (ConvNPs) improve data efficiency by leveraging translation equivariance and convolutional neural networks.
result ConvNPs enhance the performance of neural processes in small-data problems.
A new normalizing flow models continuous stochastic processes efficiently.
problem Efficient modeling of continuous stochastic processes.
method Dynamic normalizing flows driven by Wiener process.
result Rich time series model with efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals.
New model captures asymmetric rough volatility with Zumbach effect.
problem Capturing asymmetric rough volatility and Zumbach effect.
method Proposes a bivariate QHawkes process to model asymmetric buying and selling actions.
result Derives a super-rough-Heston model preserving the Zumbach effect.
Process mining sheds new light on the relationship between process models and real-life processes. Process discovery can be used to learn process models from event logs. Conformance checking is concerned with quantifying the quality of a business process model in relation to event data that was logged during the execut…
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…
In this paper we consider a new mathematical extension of the Black-Scholes model in which the stochastic time and stock share price evolution is described by two independent random processes. The parent process is Brownian, and the directing process is inverse to the totally skewed, strictly α-stable process. The subo…
MFRL-BI controls manufacturing processes without needing accurate models.
problem Model inaccuracies in complex manufacturing systems.
method Model-free reinforcement learning with Bayesian inference.
result Demonstrated to perform well in a nonlinear CMP process.
Deep Transformed Gaussian Processes extend TGPs with variational inference for scalable multi-layer modeling.
problem Flexible modeling of complex data distributions.
method DTGPs are a multi-layer model of TGPs using variational inference for scalability.
result DTGPs achieve good scalability and performance in multiple regression datasets.
DisCoveR efficiently discovers declarative process models from event logs.
problem Mining declarative process models from event logs efficiently and accurately.
method DisCoveR precisely formalizes an algorithm, uses a bit vector implementation, and rigorously evaluates performance.
result DisCoveR outperforms other declarative miners in accuracy and runtime.
Meta-learn sparse Gaussian process inference for faster predictions.
problem Cubic computational cost of exact Gaussian process inference for many observations.
method Meta-learn sparse Gaussian process inference.
result Rapid prediction on new tasks with sparse Gaussian processes.
Reciprocal processes are acausal generalizations of Markov processes introduced by Bernstein in 1932. In the literature, a significant amount of attention has been focused on developing dynamical models for reciprocal processes. In this paper, we provide a probabilistic graphical model for reciprocal processes. This le…
Automated process discovery is a class of process mining methods that allow analysts to extract business process models from event logs. Traditional process discovery methods extract process models from a snapshot of an event log stored in its entirety. In some scenarios, however, events keep coming with a high arrival…
An adversarial process between two deep neural networks is a promising approach to train a robust model. In this paper, we propose an adversarial process using cosine similarity, whereas conventional adversarial processes are based on inverted categorical cross entropy (CCE). When used for training an identification mo…
The paper models user-advertiser interactions using point processes.
problem Causal inference problems in user-advertiser interaction.
method Temporal marked point processes and neural point processes.
result Neural point processes as practical solutions.
BNP extends Neural Processes using bootstrap to better model uncertainty.
problem Limitation of NP in modeling stochastic processes with a single latent variable.
method Introduces BNP by incorporating bootstrap to estimate uncertainty without assuming a specific form.
result Demonstrates improved flexibility and robustness of BNP on various data types.
New test for point processes without strong model assumptions.
problem Testing local independence in point processes without strong model assumptions.
method Expansion similar to Volterra expansions to represent marginalized intensities.
result Approximation of true marginalized intensity arbitrarily well.
While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current inference schemes for models involving the gamma process are restricted to MCMC-based …
In this paper, we introduce a new model for the risk process based on general compound Hawkes process (GCHP) for the arrival of claims. We call it risk model based on general compound Hawkes process (RMGCHP). The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and the Functional Central Limit Theorem (FCLT) are proved. We also study the ma…
This thesis is devoted to the study of affine processes and their applications in financial mathematics. In the first part we consider the theory of time-inhomogeneous affine processes on general state spaces. We present a concise setup for time-inhomogeneous Markov processes. For stochastically continuous affine proce…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…
We solve a broad class of sequential decision-making problems with partially observed states.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with partially observed states.
method Modeling as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) and separating state and modulation process.
result The approach allows for specialized approximate solution procedures.