New process capability index for non-normal data.
problem Measuring process capability when data does not follow normal distributions.
method Developed a new multivariate non-parametric PCI using Support Vector Data Description (SVDD).
result Demonstrated improved accuracy in process capability measurement for non-normal data.
Paper proposes machine learning models for more accurate road inspection.
problem Traditional road inspection systems have safety, energy, and cost issues.
method Hybrid machine learning models using surface deflection data from FWD tests.
result CMIS model outperforms other models with APRE=2.3303, AAPRE=11.6768, RMSE=12.0056, and SD=0.0210.
This study integrates spatial coordinates into pavement maintenance prioritization.
problem Limited consideration of spatial characteristics in pavement maintenance prioritization.
method Introduced a novel spatial clustering algorithm to combine projects within budget and spatial constraints.
result Minimizes crew routing and improves collaboration between maintenance teams.
PCI combines perception and control using Bayesian inference with object-based representations.
problem Separate perception and control in reinforcement learning.
method Joint Perception and Control as Inference (PCI) framework with Object-based Perception Control (OPC).
result OPC achieves good perceptual grouping quality and outperforms baselines in accumulated rewards.
The performance of the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm is dependent on the initial weights of the map. The different initialization methods can broadly be classified into random and data analysis based initialization approach. In this paper, the performance of random initialization (RI) approach is compared to that…
CTLNet predicts Shanghai Composite Index with improved accuracy.
problem Predicting Shanghai Composite Index for investors and researchers.
method Proposes CNN-Transformer-LSTM Networks (CTLNet) for multivariate time series forecasting.
result CTLNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in Shanghai Composite Index prediction.
A new model reconciles rough volatility and jumps.
problem Combining rough volatility and jump processes.
method Developed a reversionary Heston model with fast mean reversions and large vol-of-vols.
result The reversionary Heston model converges to Lévy jump processes for certain values of the parameter.
MallowsPO enhances LLM fine-tuning with a dispersion index of human preferences.
problem Lack of diversity in human preferences in DPO.
method Developed a dispersion index based on Mallows' theory to characterize preference diversity.
result Demonstrated improved performance in various tasks using the dispersion index.
Hybrid SA algorithm optimizes index tracking for large indices.
problem Optimizing index tracking for large indices with financial constraints.
method Hybrid simulated annealing algorithm.
result Algorithm finds optimal solutions for past and future returns.
Deep learning predicts S&P 500 index direction.
problem Accurate stock price prediction remains challenging.
method Convolutional neural network model for S&P 500 index forecasting.
result Model achieves over 55% accuracy in predicting index direction.
In this paper we consider an interval portfolio selection problem with uncertain returns and introduce an inclusive concept of satisfaction index for interval inequality relation. Based on the satisfaction index, we propose an approach to reduce the interval programming problem with uncertain objective and constraints …
TCNF models SDEs using time deformation of Brownian motion.
problem Modeling SDEs with existing methods.
method Time-changed normalizing flows (TCNF) based on time deformation of Brownian motion.
result Improved modeling of SDEs, including Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
Method calibrates basket options using rearranged samples from constituent processes.
problem Calibrate basket options with non-linear dependency structure.
method Propose a method to extract dependency structure from market data through systematic sampling rearrangement, then calibrate a local volatility model.
result Efficiently calibrates basket options with near-perfect accuracy.
Regarding the intraday sequence of high frequency returns of the S&P index as daily realizations of a given stochastic process, we first demonstrate that the scaling properties of the aggregated return distribution can be employed to define a martingale stochastic model which consistently replicates conditioned expecta…
Automatically computes reference ranges for UK Biobank cardiac data.
problem Improving healthcare by discovering patterns in large-scale population data.
method Fully automatic pipeline for 3D cardiac MR image analysis.
result Statistically significant agreement between manual and automatic indexes.
A new model tracks indices without rebalancing, solving NP-hard problems.
problem Tracking indices without rebalancing and minimizing deviations.
method Metaheuristic algorithms and local branching for solving mixed integer linear programming.
result The heuristic generates portfolios that outperform commercial solvers in both in-sample and out-of-sample data.
We analyse a period spanning 35 years of activity in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA) and show that the Heston model with stochastic volatility is capable of explaining price fluctuations for time scales ranging from 5 minutes to 100 days with a single set of parameters. We also show that the Heston model …
Paper introduces a new measure combining entropy and Gini index.
problem Quantifying complexity in socio- and econo-physics.
method Generalizes entropy using Gini index and Lorenz curve transformation.
result Supports quantifying complexity in socio- and econo-physics.
Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real time . We calculate the partition function from where we obtain thermodynamic q…
Upper bound on expected supremum of Bernoulli process.
problem Bounding the supremum of Bernoulli processes.
method Using properties of the index set and function class, extending earlier results on Gaussian processes.
result An upper bound on the expected supremum of a Bernoulli process.
A new model uses a Levy-driven process to value credit index swaptions.
problem Valuation of credit index swaptions in financial markets.
method Proposes a Levy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model risk-free rate and default intensities.
result Derives formulas for characteristic function, moments, and stationary distribution.
A new branch based on Markov processes is developing in the recent literature of financial time series modeling. In this paper, an Indexed Markov Chain has been used to model high frequency price returns of quoted firms. The peculiarity of this type of model is that through the introduction of an Index process it is po…
A new tail-shape index based on Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall.
problem Measuring and comparing tail behavior of loss distributions.
method Introducing a new θ-index based on equal level relationships between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. result The θ-index provides a level-dependent, scale-free measure of upper tail behavior. Study of bandit problem with Poisson decision times and Lévy processes.
problem Continuous-time multi-armed bandit problem with Poisson decision times.
method Gittins index policy applied to spectrally one-sided Lévy processes.
result Gittins index converges to classical Lévy bandit index.
DeepHazard uses neural networks to predict time-varying survival risks.
problem Traditional survival models assume proportional hazards and do not account for time-varying covariate information.
method DeepHazard is a neural network approach that models time-varying hazards without proportional hazards assumption.
result DeepHazard outperforms existing methods in predicting survival time, as shown by C-index metrics on real datasets.
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…
New validity index for fuzzy-possibilistic c-means clustering.
problem Conflicting results in determining the optimal number of clusters due to noisy data points and outliers.
method Introducing a new validity index (FP index) for fuzzy-possibilistic c-means clustering.
result FP index works well in datasets with varying cluster shapes and densities.
Global balance index measures systemic risk in financial networks.
problem Measuring systemic risk in financial networks.
method Defined global balance index based on a diffusive process and linear system.
result Global balance index correlates with systemic risk measures.
The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process captures the so-called "volatility clustering" and the asymptotic power-law prob…
Paper proposes an EKF for estimating time-varying market efficiency.
problem Estimating time-varying market efficiency under nonlinear dynamics.
method Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for time-varying autoregressive models.
result U.S. market generally remained weak-form efficient since mid-1946.
The paper adds explanation to predictive process monitoring.
problem Equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities.
method Used game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations.
result First time explanations given in predictive business process monitoring.
Deep learning predicts market sensitivities for cost-effective index tracking.
problem Costly and impractical replication of index funds.
method Learning to predict market sensitivities using deep learning models.
result Significant reduction in prediction errors compared to historical methods.
Local EGOP learns functions varying along a few directions.
problem Efficient estimation of functions varying along a few directions in high-dimensional space.
method Local EGOP learning, a recursive algorithm using EGOP quadratic form as metric and inverse-covariance.
result Local EGOP learning achieves intrinsic dimensional learning rates under noisy manifold hypothesis.
The paper bounds the expectation of empirical processes indexed by Hölder classes.
problem Estimating the expectation of the supremum of empirical processes for distributions on bounded sets.
method Providing upper bounds on the expectation of the supremum of empirical processes indexed by Hölder classes.
result Deriving non-asymptotic risk bounds for estimating distributions using empirical processes and IPM.
Monge-Kantorovich distances, otherwise known as Wasserstein distances, have received a growing attention in statistics and machine learning as a powerful discrepancy measure for probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on forecasting a Gaussian process indexed by probability distributions. For this, we provid…
We consider the problem of pricing derivatives written on some industrial loss index via utility indifference pricing. The industrial loss index is modelled by a compound Poisson process and the insurer can adjust her portfolio by choosing the risk loading, which in turn determines the demand. We compute the price of a…
This paper proposes a general framework of multi-armed bandit (MAB) processes by introducing a type of restrictions on the switches among arms evolving in continuous time. The Gittins index process is constructed for any single arm subject to the restrictions on switches and then the optimality of the corresponding Git…
This paper models CSI 300 index volatility using machine learning and addresses jump prediction.
problem Volatility modeling and jump prediction for high-frequency CSI 300 index data.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with machine learning algorithms for parameter estimation and forecast evaluation.
result Deterministic component of stochastic volatility processes can be captured over short and longer-term windows.
This paper compares Transformers and RNNs in various tasks, showing size differences.
problem Comparing representational capabilities of Transformers and RNNs across tasks.
method Analysis of differences in tasks like index lookup, nearest neighbor, and string equality.
result Size differences in Transformers and RNNs for various tasks.
We present a new model for credit index derivatives, in the top-down approach. This model has a dynamic loss intensity process with volatility and jumps and can include counterparty risk. It handles CDS, CDO tranches, Nth-to-default and index swaptions. Using properties of affine models, we derive closed formulas for t…
New index for evaluating cash flow processes over a fixed horizon.
problem Evaluating performance of cash flow processes over a fixed investment horizon.
method Extended acceptability indices to càdlàg processes, providing a new index based on Average Value-at-Risk and running minimum.
result Suggested index represents a RAROC-type model for performance evaluation.
Study shows convergence rates for BSDEs approximated by compound Poisson processes.
problem Analyzing convergence rates of BSDEs driven by Lévy processes.
method Approximating Lévy processes by compound Poisson processes and studying BSDEs.
result Optimal convergence rates derived for BSDEs in L2-norm and Wasserstein distance. Enhances SDR via Hellinger correlation for better data dependency understanding.
problem Improving sufficient dimension reduction in single-index models.
method Developed a new method using Hellinger correlation for detecting the dimension reduction subspace.
result Significantly enhances and outperforms existing SDR methods through deeper data dependency understanding.
DLFM models complex systems with uncertainty, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Modeling highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification.
method Deep latent force model (DLFM) using physics-informed kernels derived from ODEs.
result DLFM achieves comparable performance to non-physics-informed models on univariate tasks and captures dynamics in real-world data.
Geometrically proves majorizing measure theorem on Hadamard manifolds.
problem Volume size relation between random process index space and its convex hull.
method Assumed Hadamard manifold, derived upper bound for volume ratio, applied to prove majorizing measure theorem.
result Upper bound for volume ratio between index space and convex hull.
The DoD needs a robust process to evaluate AI/ML model performance and robustness.
problem AI/ML models are brittle and nonrobust, posing risks in national security.
method Reviews AI/ML development process and best practices for evaluation.
result Recommendations for DoD evaluators to ensure robust AI/ML capabilities.
LLMs improve financial analysis by processing large data sets.
problem Traditional financial analysis methods struggle with large data volumes.
method Integrating LLMs for enhanced data processing and analysis.
result LLMs offer new capabilities for real-time financial decision-making.
Introduces new financial models using subordinated processes.
problem Modeling asset returns with behavioral finance considerations.
method Introduces multiple internally embedded financial time-clocks, subordinated to Brownian motion, with a behavioral subordinator.
result New log-price process with multiple embedded subordinations, requiring estimation of new parameters.