A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Financial market created for wellbeing indices to mitigate socioeconomic risks.
The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. …
Our usage of language is not solely reliant on cognition but is arguably determined by myriad external factors leading to a global variability of linguistic patterns. This issue, which lies at the core of sociolinguistics and is backed by many small-scale studies on face-to-face communication, is addressed here by cons…
This study uses causal Shapley values to analyze how socioeconomic factors cause the spread of COVID-19.
Optimizes control interventions in real-world networks using deep-learning and network science.
Graph embeddings from commute networks identify socioeconomic disparities in urban areas.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
Model uses Navier-Stokes equations to assess liquidity and systemic risk.
Graphs model human mobility patterns, reducing errors in data matching.
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
We study how language on social media is linked to diseases such as atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD), diabetes and various types of cancer. Our proposed model leverages state-of-the-art sentence embeddings, followed by a regression model and clustering, without the need of additional labelled data. It allows to pred…
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
One of the key socioeconomic phenomena to explain is the distribution of wealth. Bouchaud and Mézard have proposed an interesting model of economy [Bouchaud and Mézard (2000)] based on trade and investments of agents. In the mean-field approximation, the model produces a stationary wealth distribution with a power-law …
Paper introduces a new measure combining entropy and Gini index.
This study analyzes public debts and deficits between European countries. The statistical evidence here seems in general to reveal that sovereign debts and government deficits of countries within European Monetary Unification-in average- are getting worse than countries outside European Monetary Unification, in particu…
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
Drawing an inspiration from behavioral studies of human decision making, we propose here a general parametric framework for a reinforcement learning problem, which extends the standard Q-learning approach to incorporate a two-stream framework of reward processing with biases biologically associated with several neurolo…
Unsupervised learning identifies key factors for NYC COVID-19 spread.
Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking analogy with hydrodynamic turbulence, from which the idea of multifractality originat…
A fundamental problem in studying and modeling economic and financial systems is represented by privacy issues, which put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information. Here we introduce a novel, highly nontrivial method to reconstruct the structural properties of complex weighted networks of this kind usi…
By analyzing the relationships between a socioeconomical system modeled through evolutionary game theory and a physical system modeled through quantum mechanics we show how although both systems are described through two theories apparently different both are analogous and thus exactly equivalents. The extensions of qu…
Drawing an inspiration from behavioral studies of human decision making, we propose here a more general and flexible parametric framework for reinforcement learning that extends standard Q-learning to a two-stream model for processing positive and negative rewards, and allows to incorporate a wide range of reward-proce…
We define the beta diffusion tree, a random tree structure with a set of leaves that defines a collection of overlapping subsets of objects, known as a feature allocation. A generative process for the tree structure is defined in terms of particles (representing the objects) diffusing in some continuous space, analogou…
Transportation systems can be conceptualized as an instrument of spreading people and resources over the territory, playing an important role in developing sustainable cities. The current rationale of transport provision is based on population demand, disregarding land use and socioeconomic information. To meet the cha…
A major problem in the study of complex socioeconomic systems is represented by privacy issuesthat can put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information, forcing to build models on the basis of incomplete knowledge. In this paper we investigate a novel method to reconstruct global topological properties…
Kernel-based tests detect dependencies in multivariate time series, including stationary and non-stationary data.
PyCFRL helps ensure fair reinforcement learning policies from offline data.
Homicide mortality is a worldwide concern and has occupied the agenda of researchers and public managers. In Brazil, homicide is the third leading cause of death in the general population and the first in the 15-39 age group. In South America, Brazil has the third highest homicide mortality, behind Venezuela and Colomb…
Model predicts unseen climate extremes to inform risk planning.
Posterior conformal prediction improves prediction interval validity for subgroups.
The concept of progress has characterized human society from millennia. However, this concept is elusive and too often given for certain. The goal of this paper is to suggest a general definition of human progress that satisfies, whenever possible the conditions of independence, generality, epistemological applicabilit…
AICov integrates population covariates for better COVID-19 forecasting.
The dynamics of many socioeconomic systems is determined by the decision making process of agents. The decision process depends on agent's characteristics, such as preferences, risk aversion, behavioral biases, etc.. In addition, in some systems the size of agents can be highly heterogeneous leading to very different i…
Large dataset released for ITE and UM research.
FSL-Net detects and localizes feature shifts in large, high-dimensional datasets.
This paper tackles continuous domain generalization, improving model performance across unseen domains.
Within the last fifteen years, network theory has been successfully applied both to natural sciences and to socioeconomic disciplines. In particular, bipartite networks have been recognized to provide a particularly insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks in ecology to trade network…
Synthetic population generation is the process of combining multiple socioeconomic and demographic datasets from different sources and/or granularity levels, and downscaling them to an individual level. Although it is a fundamental step for many data science tasks, an efficient and standard framework is absent. In this…
The paper proposes a fair reinforcement learning framework to prevent healthcare disparities.
Intensive development of urban systems creates a number of challenges for urban planners and policy makers in order to maintain sustainable growth. Running efficient urban policies requires meaningful urban metrics, which could quantify important urban characteristics including various aspects of an actual human behavi…
Twitter releases dataset to study user engagement on Home Timeline, focusing on privacy.
Individuals do not respond uniformly to treatments, events, or interventions. Sociologists routinely partition samples into subgroups to explore how the effects of treatments vary by covariates like race, gender, and socioeconomic status. In so doing, analysts determine the key subpopulations based on theoretical prior…
Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even more important as cities continue to grow, causing water and electricity utiliti…
Proposes FairDRL-ST for fair spatio-temporal mobility prediction.
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the deviations in the waiting-time distribution away from one generated by a random pro…
Unfulfilled expectations from macro-economic initiatives during the Great Recession and the massive shift into globalization echo today with political upheaval, anti-establishment propaganda, and looming trade/currency wars that threaten domestic and international value chains. Once stable entities like the EU now look…
A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the co-evolution of the countries in the inequality space, from a data science perspective…
This study investigates the potential effects of different Dynamic Message Signs (DMSs) on driver behavior using a full-scale high-fidelity driving simulator. Different DMSs are categorized by their content, structure, and type of messages. A random forest algorithm is used for three separate behavioral analyses; a rou…