A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Two insurance companies collaborate to maximize the probability of none going bankrupt.
Estimating a constrained relation is a fundamental problem in machine learning. Special cases are classification (the problem of estimating a map from a set of to-be-classified elements to a set of labels), clustering (the problem of estimating an equivalence relation on a set) and ranking (the problem of estimating a …
Submodular function maximization finds application in a variety of real-world decision-making problems. However, most existing methods, based on greedy maximization, assume it is computationally feasible to evaluate F, the function being maximized. Unfortunately, in many realistic settings F is too expensive to evaluat…
Maximizes probability of completing investment schedules with optimal portfolio weights.
We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not necessarily dominated by a fixed probability measure. By assuming that the set of …
In this note, we explicitly solve the problem of maximizing utility of consumption (until the minimum of bankruptcy and the time of death) with a constraint on the probability of lifetime ruin, which can be interpreted as a risk measure on the whole path of the wealth process.
New algorithm for competing influence spread in unknown networks.
We study the portfolio problem of maximizing the outperformance probability over a random benchmark through dynamic trading with a fixed initial capital. Under a general incomplete market framework, this stochastic control problem can be formulated as a composite pure hypothesis testing problem. We analyze the connecti…
LITE efficiently estimates Gaussian PoM with linear time and memory complexity.
GOCPD detects change points by maximizing the probability of two independent models.
A shadow price is a process lying within the bid/ask prices of a market with proportional transaction costs, such that maximizing expected utility from consumption in the frictionless market with this price process leads to the same maximal utility as in the original market with transaction costs. For finite probabilit…
Adaptive cascade submodular maximization tackles sequential selection under uncertainty.
Proposes qPO, a new acquisition strategy for batched Bayesian optimization that maximizes the probability of including the optimum.
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
The paper examines how sampling data affects the performance of submodular maximization.
We study the problem of online influence maximization in social networks. In this problem, a learner aims to identify the set of "best influencers" in a network by interacting with it, i.e., repeatedly selecting seed nodes and observing activation feedback in the network. We capitalize on an important property of the i…
We consider the problem of selecting a seed set to maximize the expected number of influenced nodes in the social network, referred to as the \textit{influence maximization} (IM) problem. We assume that the topology of the social network is prescribed while the influence probabilities among edges are unknown. In order …
The paper introduces SuccessProbaMax to optimize policy success probability in online advertising.
Investor maximizes utility from an unknown claim using robust optimization.
We consider trading in a financial market with proportional transaction costs. In the frictionless case, claims are maximal if and only if they are priced by a consistent price process--the equivalent of an equivalent martingale measure. This result fails in the presence of transaction costs. A properly maximal claim i…
Paper improves tree probability estimation using stochastic optimization and variance reduction.
Maximizing withdrawal success in a pooled annuity fund with multiple annuitants.
Two BO methods improve reliability optimization for rare failures.
Paper proposes a new method to learn distribution kernels via entropy maximization.
The existence of optimal strategy in robust utility maximization is addressed when the utility function is finite on the entire real line. A delicate problem in this case is to find a "good definition" of admissible strategies, so that an optimizer is obtained. Under suitable assumptions, especially a time-consistency …
We consider the problem of \emph{influence maximization}, the problem of maximizing the number of people that become aware of a product by finding the `best' set of `seed' users to expose the product to. Most prior work on this topic assumes that we know the probability of each user influencing each other user, or we h…
We address the problem of influence maximization when the social network is accompanied by diffusion cascades. In prior works, such information is used to compute influence probabilities, which is utilized by stochastic diffusion models in influence maximization. Motivated by the recent criticism on the effectiveness o…
We present a theoretical framework of probabilistic learning derived by Maximum Probability (MP) Theorem shown in the current paper. In this probabilistic framework, a model is defined as an event in the probability space, and a model or the associated event -- either the true underlying model or the parameterized mode…
Formula found for probability of random triangles on flat tori being homotopically trivial.
Bayesian quadrature optimization (BQO) maximizes the expectation of an expensive black-box integrand taken over a known probability distribution. In this work, we study BQO under distributional uncertainty in which the underlying probability distribution is unknown except for a limited set of its i.i.d. samples. A stan…
Building on the success of deep learning, two modern approaches to learn a probability model from the data are Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Variational AutoEncoders (VAEs). VAEs consider an explicit probability model for the data and compute a generative distribution by maximizing a variational lower-boun…
This article studies the sensitivity of the power utility maximization problem with respect to the investor's relative risk aversion, the statistical probability measure, the investment constraints and the market price of risk. We extend previous descriptions of the dual domain then exploit the link between the constra…
The study proves the uniqueness of entropy-maximizing measures for geodesic flows on specific manifolds.
We study the global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita around the world using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for 1980-2010. We find that the Lorenz curves have moved up during this time period, and the Gini coefficient G has decreased from 0.66 in 1980 to 0.55 in 2010,…
Symbolic dynamics for flows in high dimensions, extending previous work.
One of the problems faced by a firm that sells certain commodities is to determine the number of products that it must supply in order to maximize its profit. In this article, the authors give an answer to this problem of economic interest. The proposed problem is a generalization of the results obtained by Stirzaker (…
We reveal an interesting convex duality relationship between two problems: (a) minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin when the rate of consumption is stochastic and when the individual can invest in a Black-Scholes financial market; (b) a controller-and-stopper problem, in which the controller controls the drift a…
Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction selects simulations to reduce uncertainty efficiently.
Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smar…
New algorithm finds global maxima in multi-modal functions.
Paper proposes robust methods for estimating optimal treatment rules with censored survival data.
Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.
SQFA learns features maximizing Fisher-Rao distance for better classification.
Optimizes insurance pricing to minimize ruin probability under various claim dependencies.
A new method calculates optimal decisions from classifier outputs, improving predictions in drug discovery.
This survey reviews portfolio selection problem for long-term horizon. We consider two objectives: (i) maximize the probability for outperforming a target growth rate of wealth process (ii) minimize the probability of falling below a target growth rate. We study the asymptotic behavior of these criteria formulated as l…
New guarantees for adaptive combinatorial maximization with various objectives.
In this paper, we study the problem of robust influence maximization in the independent cascade model under a hyperparametric assumption. In social networks users influence and are influenced by individuals with similar characteristics and as such, they are associated with some features. A recent surging research direc…