Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many …
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48 results for “probabilistic training”
Probabilistic models predict neural network performance across varying hyperparameters.
problem Predicting neural network performance with different hyperparameters.
method Probabilistic models based on random forests and Bayesian recurrent neural networks.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods.
Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.
problem Evaluating and improving probabilistic forecasts using generative models.
method Training generative networks to minimize predictive-sequential scoring rules on temporal sequences.
result Our method outperforms adversarial approaches in probabilistic calibration.
Novel approach trains LLMs for inductive reasoning using probabilistic programs.
problem Training LLMs for inductive reasoning with sparse, ambiguous data.
method Program-based Posterior Training (PPT) using probabilistic inference.
result Significant improvement in estimation accuracy and alignment with human judgments.
Unified framework for supervised classification with diverse training data.
problem Handling different types of training data for supervised classification.
method Generalized robust risk minimization (GRRM) with probabilistic transformations.
result GRRM can handle various training data types and new supervision schemes.
A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
problem Adapting models to new data under distributional shift
method State-space modelling architecture
result Characterizing parameter learning, time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction
We consider the problem of training probabilistic conditional random fields (CRFs) in the context of a task where performance is measured using a specific loss function. While maximum likelihood is the most common approach to training CRFs, it ignores the inherent structure of the task's loss function. We describe alte…
U-Cast simplifies AI weather forecasting with a standard U-Net and efficient training.
problem Complex AI models limit accessibility and cost for weather forecasting.
method Simple U-Net backbone, deterministic pre-training, and probabilistic fine-tuning with Monte Carlo Dropout.
result U-Cast matches or exceeds state-of-the-art models in accuracy while reducing training and inference costs.
The paper investigates model collapse in language models from a probabilistic perspective.
problem Understanding and preventing model collapse in language model training.
method Investigates recursive parametric model training from a probabilistic standpoint, characterizing conditions for model collapse and proposing mitigation strategies.
result Progressively increasing sample size is necessary to prevent model collapse, with a superlinear growth rate required in the asymptotic regime.
Probabilistic Autoencoder learns latent space weights' distribution.
problem Nonlinear model reconstruction error and sample quality.
method Normalizing flow for latent space weights' probability distribution.
result PAE achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance.
We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of infer…
Probabilistic thermal stability prediction through sparsity promoting transformer representationstat.ML
Paper improves Tm prediction of protein fragments using sparsity and probabilistic models.
problem Improving accuracy of melting temperature prediction for protein fragments.
method Promoting sparsity in pre-trained transformer models and adopting probabilistic frameworks.
result Mean absolute error of 0.23C for predicting melting temperature.
Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.
problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.
Paper proposes a framework for probabilistic load forecasting by integrating point forecasts.
problem Short-term load forecasting for power systems energy management.
method Two-stage framework: first stage for point forecasting, second stage for probabilistic forecasting using feature integration.
result Numerical results show effectiveness of the proposed approach in hour-ahead load forecasting.
UM trains a neural network to approximate marginal distributions in probabilistic programs.
problem High computational cost and lack of theoretical guarantees in inference methods for probabilistic programs.
method Combining samples from a probabilistic program prior with an augmentation method to train a neural network for any conditional marginal distribution.
result UM trains a single neural network to approximate any conditional marginal distribution, amortizing inference costs.
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
Probabilistic BLRNet uses binary weights and activations for efficient neural networks.
problem Efficiently training and deploying deep neural networks with limited memory and compute.
method Probabilistic training method for binary weights and activations, introducing stochastic operations.
result BLRNet achieves performance comparable to full-precision networks while using fewer bits.
PVI combines federated learning and variational inference for probabilistic model training.
problem Federated learning's lack of probabilistic model uncertainty estimation.
method Partitioned variational inference (PVI) framework for federated probabilistic model training.
result PVI unifies fragmented literature and demonstrates effectiveness in various federated settings.
A new probabilistic mixup framework improves deep learning generalization.
problem Improving deep learning generalization performance.
method Introduces a novel probabilistic mixup framework for conditional density estimation.
result Empirical results show benefits over existing mixup variants.
Probabilistic active meta-learning improves data efficiency in robotics.
problem Data-efficient learning in robotics where data collection is expensive.
method Conceptualizing meta-learning with a probabilistic latent variable model for sequential task selection.
result Improves data efficiency compared to baselines on simulated robotic experiments.
Geometric approach improves probabilistic robustness in neural networks.
problem Widespread lack of robustness in deep neural networks to adversarial examples.
method Geometric view on Probabilistically Robust Learning (PRL) and introduction of new perimeters.
result Existence of solutions and properties of modified PRL models.
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
problem Generative models lack awareness of decision costs.
method Integrates a decision loss into the training objective.
result Improves cost-sensitive forecast accuracy.
Simple method disentangles content and style from pre-trained vision models.
problem Learning interpretable features in visual representations.
method Probabilistic linear entanglement model and simple disentanglement algorithm.
result Method provably disentangles content and style features.
This paper introduces probabilistic SNNs for efficient neural processing.
problem Training algorithms for SNNs lag behind hardware implementations.
method Discrete-time probabilistic models and variational inference.
result Derivation of learning rules for SNNs from first principles.
Probabilistic modeling is a powerful approach for analyzing empirical information. We describe Edward, a library for probabilistic modeling. Edward's design reflects an iterative process pioneered by George Box: build a model of a phenomenon, make inferences about the model given data, and criticize the model's fit to …
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Signature Kernel Scoring Rule: A Spatio-Temporal Diagnostic for Probabilistic Weather Forecastingstat.ML
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.
Calibrating sufficientlystat.ML
Calibrating classifiers reduces grouping loss using sufficiency criteria.
problem Grouping loss in probabilistic classifier calibration is often overlooked.
method Revisited Langford & Zadrozny's probing reduction approach and introduced Brier curves.
result The probing reduction approach reduces grouping loss and supports sufficient calibration.
ProbKT uses probabilistic logical reasoning to train object detection models with weak supervision.
problem Training object detection models requires instance-level annotations, which are often unavailable.
method ProbKT, a framework based on probabilistic logical reasoning, uses arbitrary types of weak supervision.
result ProbKT leads to significant improvement and better generalization compared to existing baselines.
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series data. Fully probabilistic SSMs, however, are often found hard to train, even for …
Unified approach to non-standard classification tasks.
problem Non-standard classification tasks like semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, multi-positive-unlabelled and noisy-label learning.
method Probabilistic, unified approach training a classifier to predict label-distributions, then inferring class-distributions.
result Unified model for various non-standard classification tasks.
ProBoost boosts probabilistic classifiers by focusing on uncertain samples.
problem Improving probabilistic classifiers through targeted learning.
method ProBoost uses epistemic uncertainty to select challenging samples, increasing their weight for subsequent learners.
result ProBoost significantly improves classifier performance, especially with few weak learners.
Improved deep probabilistic time series forecasting by learning error autocorrelation.
problem Simplification of time-independent error process and lack of serial correlation in existing models.
method Proposes a training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to enhance probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification across multiple datasets.
Probabilistic topic models are popular unsupervised learning methods, including probabilistic latent semantic indexing (pLSI) and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). By now, their training is implemented on general purpose computers (GPCs), which are flexible in programming but energy-consuming. Towards low-energy imple…
A new estimator improves training of probabilistic models with latent Gaussian variables.
problem Improving gradient estimation for models with latent Gaussian variables.
method Rao-Blackwellised Reparameterisation Gradients (R2-G2)
result R2-G2 consistently yields better performance in models with multiple applications of the reparameterisation trick.
PSI models and infers feature attributions efficiently and accurately.
problem Modeling and inferring feature attributions in flexible predictive models.
method Probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI) framework using latent random variables and a masking-based neural network architecture.
result PSI learns feature attribution distributions centered at Shapley values, revealing meaningful uncertainty.
An Introduction to Spiking Neural Networks: Probabilistic Models, Learning Rules, and Applicationseess.SP
Paper introduces probabilistic SNNs for efficient learning.
problem Training SNNs with biological plausibility and energy efficiency.
method Discrete-time probabilistic models, variational inference.
result Derives supervised and unsupervised learning rules.
New method encodes function preferences into neural nets for better generalization.
problem Challenges in encoding explicit function preferences in neural network training.
method Function-space empirical Bayes (FSEB) regularization.
result FSEB leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection and improved generalization.
Probabilistic STNs improve image classification and robustness.
problem Training and robustness issues in STNs.
method Probabilistic extension of STNs that estimates stochastic transformations.
result Improved classification performance, robustness, and model calibration.
This paper introduces a new learning rule for probabilistic SNNs that improves log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.
problem Training and inference of deterministic SNNs are constrained by their inability to generate multiple independent outputs.
method Introduces a generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) learning rule for probabilistic SNNs.
result The GEM-SNN learning rule leads to significant improvements in log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
New method trains latent variable models using various f-divergences.
problem Training latent variable models with alternative f-divergences.
method Variational approach combined with Spread Divergence.
result General method for training models with any f-divergence.
KQSP method prevents crossing issues in probabilistic K-line forecasts.
problem Quantile and K-line crossing issues in probabilistic K-line forecasts.
method Parameter-free and training-free reconciliation method (KQSP).
result KQSP reduces crossing rates to zero for all test data.
Probabilistic embeddings improve speaker diarization accuracy.
problem Improving speaker diarization accuracy using embeddings.
method Extracting x-vectors and precision matrices from speech segments, interfacing with PLDA model, applying agglomerative clustering, joint training of PLDA and extractor.
result Joint training of PLDA and probabilistic x-vector extractor yields accuracy gains.
Proposes an accuracy-preserving calibration method for DNNs.
problem Calibration of deep neural networks (DNNs) to measure prediction reliability.
method Uses Concrete distribution on the probability simplex to calibrate DNNs without accuracy loss.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in accuracy-preserving calibration tasks.
Enhances POU-Nets with probabilistic noise model for efficient spatial data clustering.
problem Improving the efficiency and accuracy of deep learning models for spatial data.
method Integrates Gaussian noise model into POU-Nets to enable gradient-based optimization and hierarchical refinement.
result Achieves sharp spatial partitions and higher-order polynomial approximation without regularizers.
A new method for efficient probabilistic meta-learning.
problem High-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates require large amounts of data.
method Amortised Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks (APOVI-BNN)
result The APOVI-BNN produces high-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates using significantly less data.
NGBoost boosts probabilistic predictions using natural gradients.
problem Uncertainty estimation in probabilistic predictions.
method Gradient boosting for probabilistic regression with natural gradient correction.
result NGBoost outperforms existing methods for probabilistic prediction.