A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
KalMamba improves RL efficiency with probabilistic SSMs.
A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
Deep state space model forecasts time series with uncertainty.
Stanza models complex time series with balance between traditional and deep learning approaches.
dynestyx: A library for probabilistic programming of dynamical systems
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series data. Fully probabilistic SSMs, however, are often found hard to train, even for …
Predicts cryptocurrency prices with deep state-space model.
This paper addresses the general problem of modelling and learning rank data with ties. We propose a probabilistic generative model, that models the process as permutations over partitions. This results in super-exponential combinatorial state space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown ordering among them. We…
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a syst…
Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad class of linear and non-linear state space mod…
Reciprocal processes are acausal generalizations of Markov processes introduced by Bernstein in 1932. In the literature, a significant amount of attention has been focused on developing dynamical models for reciprocal processes. In this paper, we provide a probabilistic graphical model for reciprocal processes. This le…
Implements SSSD for missing value imputation and forecasting in time series data.
Deep SSMs use neural networks to identify complex systems.
Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on …
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
Novel method learns time series dynamics without reconstruction.
A new Fourier model improves ODE prediction.
A new method learns complex dynamical systems from data efficiently.
We prove a conjecture about approximating Gaussian Processes on one dimension.
A new framework using kernel packets overcomes limitations of state space models for multi-dimensional data.
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time i…
PRISM provides real-time SLAM with uncertainty estimates for agent and map states.
Combines pseudo-point and state space approximations for scalable GPs.
In audio signal processing, probabilistic time-frequency models have many benefits over their non-probabilistic counterparts. They adapt to the incoming signal, quantify uncertainty, and measure correlation between the signal's amplitude and phase information, making time domain resynthesis straightforward. However, th…
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
A framework to boost the efficiency of Bayesian inference in probabilistic programs is introduced by embedding a sampler inside a variational posterior approximation. We call it the refined variational approximation. Its strength lies both in ease of implementation and automatically tuning of the sampler parameters to …
Improved neural likelihood estimation for SSMs with truncated-SNL.
A novel deep probabilistic model for dynamic systems forecasting.
We consider differentially private algorithms for reinforcement learning in continuous spaces, such that neighboring reward functions are indistinguishable. This protects the reward information from being exploited by methods such as inverse reinforcement learning. Existing studies that guarantee differential privacy a…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the system states and the transition function. We exploit Markov structure in the true…
New method improves Kalman filtering and smoothing for large state spaces.
A low-rank tensor model simplifies multi-dimensional Markov chains.
We present an approach to learn the dynamics of multiple objects from image sequences in an unsupervised way. We introduce a probabilistic model that first generate noisy positions for each object through a separate linear state-space model, and then renders the positions of all objects in the same image through a high…
From social networks to Internet applications, a wide variety of electronic communication tools are producing streams of graph data; where the nodes represent users and the edges represent the contacts between them over time. This has led to an increased interest in mechanisms to model the dynamic structure of time-var…
We describe discrete restricted Boltzmann machines: probabilistic graphical models with bipartite interactions between visible and hidden discrete variables. Examples are binary restricted Boltzmann machines and discrete naive Bayes models. We detail the inference functions and distributed representations arising in th…
Trial-and-error based reinforcement learning (RL) has seen rapid advancements in recent times, especially with the advent of deep neural networks. However, the majority of autonomous RL algorithms require a large number of interactions with the environment. A large number of interactions may be impractical in many real…
Theory broadens GFlowNets to handle continuous spaces.
An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model inside a particle filter framework. Model updating is done at measurement sample …
This work interprets SFA through variational inference, relaxing linearity constraints.
Improved robust latent variable estimation for neural dynamics.
Paper introduces PRMs to learn non-Markovian stochastic rewards for reinforcement learning.
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a novel PMCMC algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS). PGAS provides t…
Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to otherwise intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to t…