A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Probabilistic method proves gap estimates on sphere.
ManifoldMind uses adaptive-curvature probabilistic spheres for trustworthy recommendations in semantic hierarchies.
We give an asymptotic probabilistic real Riemann-Hurwitz formula computing the expected real ramification index of a random covering over the Riemann sphere. More generally, we study the asymptotic expected number and distribution of critical points of a random real Lefschetz pencil over a smooth real algebraic variety…
Probabilistic theory counts intersections in Riemannian spaces.
Dimensionality reduction on Riemannian manifolds is challenging due to the complex nonlinear data structures. While probabilistic principal geodesic analysis~(PPGA) has been proposed to generalize conventional principal component analysis (PCA) onto manifolds, its effectiveness is limited to data with a single modality…
Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) has been widely applied as a fundamental generative model in machine learning. For complex samples like imagery objects or scenes, however, VAE suffers from the dimensional dilemma between reconstruction precision that needs high-dimensional latent codes and probabilistic inference that f…
A novel 3D shape registration method using spectral graph embedding and probabilistic matching.
Uncertainty in economics still poses some fundamental problems illustrated, e.g., by the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes. To overcome these difficulties, economists have introduced an interesting distinction between 'risk' and 'ambiguity' depending on the existence of a (classical Kolmogorovian) probabilistic structure m…
Strictly proper kernel scores are well-known tool in probabilistic forecasting, while characteristic kernels have been extensively investigated in the machine learning literature. We first show that both notions coincide, so that insights from one part of the literature can be used in the other. We then show that the m…
Extends probabilistic approach for Kahler-Einstein metrics on Fano manifolds.
Probabilistic deep learning uses neural networks and models to handle uncertainty.
There is a widely-accepted need to revise current forms of health-care provision, with particular interest in sensing systems in the home. Given a multiple-modality sensor platform with heterogeneous network connectivity, as is under development in the Sensor Platform for HEalthcare in Residential Environment (SPHERE) …
We consider vector valued, unit variance Gaussian processes defined over stratified manifolds and the geometry of their excursion sets. In particular, we develop an explicit formula for the expectation of all the Lipschitz--Killing curvatures of these sets. Whereas our motivation is primarily probabilistic, with statis…
Recent discussion in the public sphere about algorithmic classification has involved tension between competing notions of what it means for a probabilistic classification to be fair to different groups. We formalize three fairness conditions that lie at the heart of these debates, and we prove that except in highly con…
We introduce the notion of a stochastic probabilistic program and present a reference implementation of a probabilistic programming facility supporting specification of stochastic probabilistic programs and inference in them. Stochastic probabilistic programs allow straightforward specification and efficient inference …
Transformers interpret as probabilistic mixtures, offering new insights.
Unified framework for Brownian motion distances on specific geometric manifolds.
We study several new invariants associated to a holomorphic projective structure on a Riemann surface of finite analytic type: the Lyapunov exponent of its holonomy which is of probabilistic/dynamical nature and was introduced in our previous work; the degree which measures the asymptotic covering rate of the developin…
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
Improves probabilistic programming by analyzing program structure.
Probabilistic ML improves healthcare data analysis.
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
Probabilistic pseudo knots model uncertain knot diagrams.
A new distribution addresses scalability and numerical stability issues of the vMF.
VJE learns latent representations without contrastive learning, providing probabilistic semantics.
In a range of fields including the geosciences, molecular biology, robotics and computer vision, one encounters problems that involve random variables on manifolds. Currently, there is a lack of flexible probabilistic models on manifolds that are fast and easy to train. We define an extremely flexible class of exponent…
Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribut…
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
We unify and and address a set of problems in unsupervised learning with a geometric interpretation of those methods, rooted in the phenomenon. Kernel density is viewed symbolically as where the rand…
Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have …
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficien…
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class…
Probabilistic programming is a powerful abstraction for statistical machine learning. Applying static analysis methods to probabilistic programs could serve to optimize the learning process, automatically verify properties of models, and improve the programming interface for users. This field of static analysis for pro…
Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many …
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this wor…
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.