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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for probabilistic solver

The paper improves ODE solvers by integrating diverse information types.

problem Improving accuracy and physical meaningfulness of ODE solutions.
method Leveraging probabilistic solvers to include second-order information and physical conservation laws.
result Solutions become more accurate and physically meaningful with additional information.

Parallel-in-time solver reduces ODE simulation time from linear to logarithmic.

problem Efficiently solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with reduced computational cost.
method Formulated a parallel-in-time probabilistic numerical ODE solver using time-parallel formulation of iterated extended Kalman smoothers.
result Reduces span cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of time steps.

Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.

problem Uncertainty in probabilistic ODE solutions is not well-calibrated for adaptive step sizes.
method Introduce and assess several calibration methods for probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Calibration methods interact efficiently with adaptive step-size selection, improving posteriors.

New framework for probabilistic linear solvers reduces manual effort.

problem Manual implementation of probabilistic iterative methods is laborious.
method Affine Tracing: Automatically constructs PIMs from standard implementations.
result Any realistic affine PIM is calibrated, motivating their adoption.

DALTON improves ODE parameter estimation by learning from noisy data.

problem High sensitivity to parameters in ODEs produces unreliable parameter estimates.
method Data-adaptive probabilistic likelihood approximation for ODEs.
result DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates than existing methods.

New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.

problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.

Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.

problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.

Prob-GParareal adds uncertainty quantification to PinT solvers for differential equations.

problem Uncertainty in numerical solutions of differential equations.
method Prob-GParareal uses Gaussian processes to model Parareal correction function, providing probabilistic forecasts.
result Prob-GParareal yields accurate and robust probabilistic forecasts on various ODE systems.

DPM-Solver speeds up DPM sampling to 10-20 function evaluations.

problem Slow sampling from Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs).
method Exact formulation of diffusion ODE solutions, using change-of-variable and exponentially weighted integral.
result Generates high-quality samples in 10-20 function evaluations.

There is resurging interest, in statistics and machine learning, in solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that return probability measures instead of point estimates. Recently, Conrad et al. introduced a sampling-based class of methods that are 'well-calibrated' in a specific sense. But the computational c…

2016-05-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability d…

2014-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficiently solves MRF inference problems with semidefinite programming.

problem Computing partition function or MAP estimate in binary and multi-class MRFs.
method Coordinate-descent-based fast semidefinite solver for SDPs.
result Substantially outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in approximate inference.

PANIS learns PDE surrogates for heterogeneous materials without solving the PDE.

problem Learning surrogates for parametrized PDEs in heterogeneous media.
method Physics-aware neural implicit solvers combining probabilistic learning and physics-informed discretization.
result Learned surrogates for effective solutions in heterogeneous materials without solving the reference problem.

New method calibrates probabilistic linear solver for online coverage guarantees.

problem Uncertainty in probabilistic linear solver solutions without coverage guarantees.
method Online conformal prediction-PLS (OCP-PLS) method to calibrate uncertainty thresholds.
result Validates online calibration of uncertainty thresholds via online conformal prediction.

We describe a set of Gaussian Process based approaches that can be used to solve non-linear Ordinary Differential Equations. We suggest an explicit probabilistic solver and two implicit methods, one analogous to Picard iteration and the other to gradient matching. All methods have greater accuracy than previously sugge…

2014-08-17abs ↗pdf ↗

SA-Solver improves stochastic sampling from DPMs.

problem Efficient sampling from Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) is time-consuming.
method Proposes SA-Solver, an improved stochastic Adams method for solving diffusion SDE.
result SA-Solver achieves improved or comparable performance compared to SOTA methods for few-step sampling.

New method combines ODE solvers with Bayesian inference for efficient model training.

problem Combining ODE solvers with Bayesian inference for efficient model training.
method Probabilistic state space model using extended Kalman filter for joint inference from differential equations and data.
result Efficient approximate Bayesian inference on latent force and ODE solution.

New method uses Gaussian ODE filtering to approximate likelihoods for fast ODE inverse problems.

problem Intractable forward models in likelihood-free inference, especially for ODEs.
method Gaussian ODE filtering to construct local Gaussian likelihood approximations.
result New solvers outperform standard likelihood-free approaches on benchmark systems.

We present a derivation and theoretical investigation of the Adams-Bashforth and Adams-Moulton family of linear multistep methods for solving ordinary differential equations, starting from a Gaussian process (GP) framework. In the limit, this formulation coincides with the classical deterministic methods, which have be…

2016-10-26abs ↗pdf ↗

This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems Bx=bBx = b with positive definite BB for xx. The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of BB, which can …

2014-02-10abs ↗pdf ↗

The numerical solution of large-scale PDEs, such as those occurring in data-driven applications, unavoidably require powerful parallel computers and tailored parallel algorithms to make the best possible use of them. In fact, considerations about the parallelization and scalability of realistic problems are often criti…

2017-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation …

2015-06-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Probabilistic SR method speeds up high-fidelity simulations with reliable uncertainty estimates.

problem Lack of reliable uncertainty quantification in deep-learning based SR methods.
method Statistical Finite Element Method and energy-based generative modeling.
result Efficient high-resolution predictions with inherent uncertainty estimates.

Proposes a new model for RANS simulations with uncertainty.

problem Uncertainty in Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations.
method Data-driven closure model with aleatoric uncertainty, Bayesian formulation, sparse indirect data.
result Accurate probabilistic predictions, even in regions of model error.

A new first-order sampler improves diffusion probabilistic model sampling quality.

problem The belief that first-order methods are inherently slower for diffusion probabilistic model sampling.
method A novel training-free, first-order sampler that approximates the forward-value evaluation via a one-step lookahead predictor.
result The proposed sampler provably approximates the ideal forward-value trajectory while retaining first-order convergence and can improve sample quality under the same NFE budget.

Optimal control of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is a major challenge in the domain of robot learning. Given the intractability of the global control problem, state-of-the-art algorithms focus on approximate sequential optimization techniques, that heavily rely on heuristics for regularization in order to achi…

2019-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

This work frames active inference through control as inference, offering robust control algorithms.

problem Active inference framework lacks practical sensorimotor control algorithms.
method Frame active inference through control as inference, presenting trajectory optimization as inference.
result AI may be framed as partially-observed CaI when the cost function is defined in observation states.

Optimizes neural networks with blackbox solvers using Time-cost Regularization.

problem Improving neural network performance by integrating efficient solvers for complex problems.
method Optimizes both the primary loss function and the performance of the blackbox solver using Time-cost Regularization. Introduces a hyper-blackbox concept to learn blackbox parameters.
result Significant improvement in neural network performance through optimization of blackbox solvers.

Study analyzes 3,171 stocks to pick efficient portfolios using quantum and classical solvers.

problem Creating efficient stock portfolios from a large dataset.
method Used classical and quantum solvers to optimize portfolios of 3,171 US stocks.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of quantum and classical solvers in portfolio optimization.

The paper speeds up hyperparameter optimisation in Gaussian processes.

problem Scaling hyperparameter optimisation to large datasets.
method Improvements to linear system solvers (pathwise gradient, warm starting, early stopping).
result Speed-ups of up to 72x and residual norm decreases of up to 7x.