A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper studies batch decompositions of random datasets with probabilistic similarity constraints.
Enhances load forecasting for multiple entities with dynamic similarities.
Probabilistic atlases provide essential spatial contextual information for image interpretation, Bayesian modeling, and algorithmic processing. Such atlases are typically constructed by grouping subjects with similar demographic information. Importantly, use of the same scanner minimizes inter-group variability. Howeve…
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many …
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
The performance of many machine learning techniques depends on the choice of an appropriate similarity or distance measure on the input space. Similarity learning (or metric learning) aims at building such a measure from training data so that observations with the same (resp. different) label are as close (resp. far) a…
Parametric quantile regressions are a useful tool for creating probabilistic energy forecasts. Nonetheless, since classical quantile regressions are trained using a non-differentiable cost function, their creation using complex data mining techniques (e.g., artificial neural networks) may be complicated. This article p…
Latent variable models (LVMs) learn probabilistic models of data manifolds lying in an \emph{ambient} Euclidean space. In a number of applications, a priori known spatial constraints can shrink the ambient space into a considerably smaller manifold. Additionally, in these applications the Euclidean geometry might induc…
Introduces a probabilistic framework for dimension reduction methods.
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are known to provide accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates even with small amounts of labeled data by capturing similarity between data points through their kernel function. However traditional GP kernels are not very effective at capturing similarity between high dimensional data poin…
Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures a…
KalMamba improves RL efficiency with probabilistic SSMs.
Paper optimizes demand aggregation for low-level electricity markets.
Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a group level scalable probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component pruning using automa…
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
We introduce Probabilistic FastText, a new model for word embeddings that can capture multiple word senses, sub-word structure, and uncertainty information. In particular, we represent each word with a Gaussian mixture density, where the mean of a mixture component is given by the sum of n-grams. This representation al…
This work connects LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA through a stochastic perspective.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
We introduce a probabilistic approach to the LMS filter. By means of an efficient approximation, this approach provides an adaptable step-size LMS algorithm together with a measure of uncertainty about the estimation. In addition, the proposed approximation preserves the linear complexity of the standard LMS. Numerical…
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
Probabilistic graphical models compactly represent joint distributions by decomposing them into factors over subsets of random variables. In Bayesian networks, the factors are conditional probability distributions. For many problems, common information exists among those factors. Adding similarity restrictions can be v…
We describe a probabilistic (generative) view of affinity matrices along with inference algorithms for a subclass of problems associated with data clustering. This probabilistic view is helpful in understanding different models and algorithms that are based on affinity functions OF the data. IN particular, we show how(…
New method learns policies from past data.
We introduce a probabilistic framework for quantifying the semantic similarity between two groups of embeddings. We formulate the task of semantic similarity as a model comparison task in which we contrast a generative model which jointly models two sentences versus one that does not. We illustrate how this framework c…
More and more neural network approaches have achieved considerable improvement upon submodules of speaker diarization system, including speaker change detection and segment-wise speaker embedding extraction. Still, in the clustering stage, traditional algorithms like probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) ar…
High-quality image synthesis with diffusion models, achieving state-of-the-art FID score.
Paper introduces a geometric approach to model similar probability distributions.
HeMPPCAT improves PCA for data with varying noise.
To address the limitations of existing magnitude-based pruning algorithms in cases where model weights or activations are of large and similar magnitude, we propose a novel perspective to discover parameter redundancy among channels and accelerate deep CNNs via channel pruning. Precisely, we argue that channels reveali…
Hybrid framework combines PGMs and TNs for complex probabilistic modeling.
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are hierarchical, graphical models that combine benefits of deep learning and probabilistic modeling. SPNs offer unique advantages to applications demanding exact probabilistic inference over high-dimensional, noisy inputs. Yet, compared to convolutional neural nets, they struggle with captu…
In this paper, we derive a novel probabilistic model of boosting as a Product of Experts. We re-derive the boosting algorithm as a greedy incremental model selection procedure which ensures that addition of new experts to the ensemble does not decrease the likelihood of the data. These learning rules lead to a generic …
In this document we are going to derive the equations needed to implement a Variational Bayes estimation of the parameters of the simplified probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (SPLDA) model. This can be used to adapt SPLDA from one database to another with few development data or to implement the fully Bayesian…
Recommender systems are used in variety of domains affecting people's lives. This has raised concerns about possible biases and discrimination that such systems might exacerbate. There are two primary kinds of biases inherent in recommender systems: observation bias and bias stemming from imbalanced data. Observation b…
Regression problems assume every instance is annotated (labeled) with a real value, a form of annotation we call \emph{strong guidance}. In order for these annotations to be accurate, they must be the result of a precise experiment or measurement. However, in some cases additional \emph{weak guidance} might be given by…
Topic models have emerged as fundamental tools in unsupervised machine learning. Most modern topic modeling algorithms take a probabilistic view and derive inference algorithms based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) or its variants. In contrast, we study topic modeling as a combinatorial optimization problem, and p…
VIR model improves regression accuracy and uncertainty estimation for imbalanced data.
This thesis improves deep sequence models by integrating probabilistic methods for uncertainty quantification.
A new probabilistic framework for optimal transport using collective graphical models.
Similarity graphs are an active research direction for the nearest neighbor search (NNS) problem. New algorithms for similarity graph construction are continuously being proposed and analyzed by both theoreticians and practitioners. However, existing construction algorithms are mostly based on heuristics and do not exp…
This paper introduces a new probabilistic model for online learning which dynamically incorporates information from stochastic gradients of an arbitrary loss function. Similar to probabilistic filtering, the model maintains a Gaussian belief over the optimal weight parameters. Unlike traditional Bayesian updates, the m…
Alzheimer's disease is a major cause of dementia. Its diagnosis requires accurate biomarkers that are sensitive to disease stages. In this respect, we regard probabilistic classification as a method of designing a probabilistic biomarker for disease staging. Probabilistic biomarkers naturally support the interpretation…
In this paper we explore the "vector semantics" problem from the perspective of "almost orthogonal" property of high-dimensional random vectors. We show that this intriguing property can be used to "memorize" random vectors by simply adding them, and we provide an efficient probabilistic solution to the set membership …
Acquiring new robot motor skills is cumbersome, as learning a skill from scratch and without prior knowledge requires the exploration of a large space of motor configurations. Accordingly, for learning a new task, time could be saved by restricting the parameter search space by initializing it with the solution of a si…
We develop a probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a new generative probabilistic model that explicitly capture variations in data due to latent task nuisance variables. We demonstrate that max-sum inference in the DRMM yields an algorithm that exactly reproduces th…
Recent advances in analysis of subband amplitude envelopes of natural sounds have resulted in convincing synthesis, showing subband amplitudes to be a crucial component of perception. Probabilistic latent variable analysis is particularly revealing, but existing approaches don't incorporate prior knowledge about the ph…
New framework uses conformal predictions for robust, scalable machine learning classification.
Transfer learning assumes classifiers of similar tasks share certain parameter structures. Unfortunately, modern classifiers uses sophisticated feature representations with huge parameter spaces which lead to costly transfer. Under the impression that changes from one classifier to another should be ``simple'', an effi…