Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

52104156208 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for probabilistic safety regions

Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.

problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.

A new error bound improves safety in Bayesian optimization.

problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models.
method Introducing a novel error bound using Wiener kernel regression for Gaussian processes and noise.
result The new error bound provides larger safety regions than previous methods.

The paper tackles MAP inference over non-convex constraints in safety-critical settings.

problem Efficiently computing MAP predictions subject to non-convex constraints is challenging.
method The paper investigates conditions for exact and efficient MAP inference over continuous variables and devises scalable algorithms for both tractable and general cases.
result The proposed methods outperform constraint-agnostic baselines and scale to complex densities.

Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.

problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.

Generative model improves safety in self-driving simulators and human motion generation.

problem Improving generative models for constrained domains like safety-critical applications.
method Developed Gen-neG, a denoising diffusion model that uses oracle-assisted guidance.
result Empirically validated Gen-neG for collision avoidance and safety-guarded human motion generation.

Proposes a method to accelerate safe sequential learning using offline data.

problem Limited exploration due to disconnected safe regions and slow task learning.
method Safe transfer sequential learning using Gaussian processes and offline data.
result Enhances global exploration across multiple disjoint safe regions with lower data consumption.

Improves safety region certification for smoothed classifiers without changing smoothing scheme.

problem Certified safety regions for smoothed classifiers are often small compared to optimal.
method Generalizes certified radius calculation as nested optimization problem, uses 0th-1st order information, and designs efficient estimators.
result Certified safety regions are significantly larger than current methods, achieving significant improvements on various metrics.

Develops a method to simulate rare dangerous events in autonomous systems.

problem Rare dangerous events in safety-critical systems are hard to test in real-world settings.
method Combines exploration, exploitation, and optimization techniques for rare-event simulation.
result Provides rigorous guarantees for the performance of the method.

In this paper we discuss how systems with Artificial Intelligence (AI) can undergo safety assessment. This is relevant, if AI is used in safety related applications. Taking a deeper look into AI models, we show, that many models of artificial intelligence, in particular machine learning, are statistical models. Safety …

2020-02-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep-PrAE improves rare-event simulation for black-box systems.

problem Evaluating rare safety-critical events in learning-based systems.
method Combines deep neural networks with IS to create statistically guaranteed estimations.
result Deep-PrAE provides accurate bounds on safety-critical event probabilities.

A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.

problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.

MA-COPP predicts multi-agent system outcomes using data from a different policy, with probabilistic guarantees.

problem Predicting outcomes in multi-agent systems using data from a different policy.
method Conformal prediction framework applied to multi-agent systems, avoiding exhaustive search.
result Achieves probabilistic guarantees for multi-agent system predictions.

Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.

problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.

Bayesian method synthesizes barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states.

problem Certifying safety in systems with unknown dynamics and latent states.
method Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampler and sum-of-squares program.
result Probabilistic validity of barrier certificates for unknown systems.

The paper tackles safe exploration in RL by a conservative safety critic.

problem Safe exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) when partially trained policies are deployed.
method Learning a conservative safety estimate through a critic, provably bounding catastrophic failures.
result The approach provably converges to competitive task performance with significantly lower catastrophic failure rates.

Safe exploration method for RL under disturbance ensures safety with probabilistic guarantees.

problem Safe reinforcement learning in real environments with disturbance.
method Uses partial prior knowledge and conservative inputs to ensure state constraint satisfaction.
result Guaranteed safety with pre-specified probability in the presence of stochastic disturbance.

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive experimental results in image classification, but can surprisingly be unstable with respect to adversarial perturbations, that is, minimal changes to the input image that cause the network to misclassify it. With potential applications including perception modules and end-t…

2016-10-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Safe RL in linear systems achieves T\sqrt{T}-regret.

problem Efficiently learning in safety-constrained online reinforcement learning.
method Study of linear quadratic regulator with safety constraints.
result First safe algorithm with ildeOT(T) ilde{O}_T(\sqrt{T})-regret.

New bounds on trajectory safety in training models with Langevin Dynamics.

problem Bounding the probability of a model's trajectory staying away from a designated failure region.
method Analyzes Langevin dynamics on smooth, strongly convex loss landscapes, introducing shape-free and local relaxation bounds.
result The in-set probability relaxes to the static value after a burn-in time of order d, using only the global spectral gap of the loss.

This paper presents a distributionally robust Q-Learning algorithm (DrQ) which leverages Wasserstein ambiguity sets to provide idealistic probabilistic out-of-sample safety guarantees during online learning. First, we follow past work by separating the constraint functions from the principal objective to create a hiera…

2020-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely employed in control and learning because of their principled treatment of uncertainty. However, tracking uncertainty for iterative, multi-step predictions in general leads to an analytically intractable problem. While approximation methods exist, they do not come with guarantees, mak…

2019-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper defines ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions and approximates them for unbalanced data.

problem Need probabilistic guarantees for reliable predictions in machine learning.
method Formalizes ε-Safe Decision Regions, proves their form for exponential family distributions, and develops Multi Cost SVM for unbalanced data.
result Formal definition and analytical determination of ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions.

Enforcing safety is a key aspect of many problems pertaining to sequential decision making under uncertainty, which require the decisions made at every step to be both informative of the optimal decision and also safe. For example, we value both efficacy and comfort in medical therapy, and efficiency and safety in robo…

2018-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-active learning optimizes control of safety-critical systems by efficiently learning dynamics and configurations.

problem Efficiently learning system dynamics and optimal configurations for safety-critical systems like deep brain stimulation.
method Meta-learning an acquisition function using LSTM, cast as meta-learning, with a mixed-integer linear program policy.
result Achieved a 46% increase in information gain and a 20% speedup in computation time over baselines.

ELS framework improves safety alignment by dynamically steering LLMs towards helpful responses.

problem Over-Refusal in Aligned Large Language Models
method Fine-tuning free framework using an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to dynamically steer LLMs during inference.
result Extensive experiments show a significant reduction in false refusals (from 57.3% to 82.6%) while maintaining safety performance.

Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.

problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.

CSP improves time-series forecasting without training, outperforming DeepNPTS in speed and accuracy.

problem Improving probabilistic time-series forecasting without training.
method Mixing empirical and residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast.
result CSP significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on CRPS, normalized mean quantile loss, and coverage metrics.

Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their ability to represent uncertainty about predictions. In safety-critical applicatio…

2019-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We can compare the expressiveness of neural networks that use rectified linear units (ReLUs) by the number of linear regions, which reflect the number of pieces of the piecewise linear functions modeled by such networks. However, enumerating these regions is prohibitive and the known analytical bounds are identical for…

2018-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

This work establishes safe reinforcement learning for LQR with nonlinear baselines.

problem Safe reinforcement learning in LQR with unknown dynamics and safety constraints.
method General framework for nonlinear baselines, focusing on 1D spaces.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for constrained reinforcement learning.

Study identifies regions where scoring rules reliably detect forecast errors.

problem Insufficient reliability of scoring rules in evaluating multivariate probabilistic forecasts.
method Systematic finite-sample analysis of proper scoring rules on synthetic and real-world data.
result Identified regions of reliability for scoring rules in time-series forecasting.

Semantic inpainting is the task of inferring missing pixels in an image given surrounding pixels and high level image semantics. Most semantic inpainting algorithms are deterministic: given an image with missing regions, a single inpainted image is generated. However, there are often several plausible inpaintings for a…

2018-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper provides tighter error bounds for GPR under bounded support noise.

problem Rigorous error quantification for safety-critical applications with bounded noise.
method Using concentration inequalities and low complexity assumptions in RKHS, the paper derives probabilistic and deterministic error bounds for GPR.
result The derived error bounds are substantially tighter than existing state-of-the-art bounds and are particularly well-suited for GPR with neural network kernels.