Probabilistic deep learning uses neural networks and models to handle uncertainty.
problem Handling uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Two approaches: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models.
result TensorFlow Probability library supports both approaches.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
problem Balancing tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic models.
method Introduce probabilistic neural circuits (PNCs) as a mix of Bayesian networks and neural networks.
result PNCs are powerful function approximators.
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
ProFnet models HDFTS with neural networks, offering scalable probabilistic forecasts.
problem Modeling high-dimensional functional time series with nonlinear trends and high spatial dimensions.
method Integrates feedforward and deep neural networks with probabilistic modeling.
result Superior performance in forecasting Japan's mortality rates.
Even though probabilistic treatments of neural networks have a long history, they have not found widespread use in practice. Sampling approaches are often too slow already for simple networks. The size of the inputs and the depth of typical CNN architectures in computer vision only compound this problem. Uncertainty in…
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
InferPy is a Python package for probabilistic modeling with deep neural networks. It defines a user-friendly API that trades-off model complexity with ease of use, unlike other libraries whose focus is on dealing with very general probabilistic models at the cost of having a more complex API. In particular, this packag…
A new probabilistic model detects communities in networks using both structure and node features.
problem Detecting communities in networks with node features for more accurate results.
method Generative probabilistic model considering network structure and node features.
result The model accurately detects communities and determines feature strength.
Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.
problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.
Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.
problem Evaluating and improving probabilistic forecasts using generative models.
method Training generative networks to minimize predictive-sequential scoring rules on temporal sequences.
result Our method outperforms adversarial approaches in probabilistic calibration.
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many …
Correlation Networks (CNs) inherently suffer from redundant information in their network topology. Bayesian Networks (BNs), on the other hand, include only non-redundant information (from a probabilistic perspective) resulting in a sparse topology from which generalizable physical features can be extracted. We advocate…
This work combines recurrent models with diffusion for probabilistic time series forecasting.
problem Scalability and capturing high-dimensional distributions and cross-feature dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Combines recurrent neural networks' efficiency with diffusion models' probabilistic modeling, using stochastic interpolants and conditional generation.
result Offers scalable probabilistic time series forecasting methods.
Study probabilistic safety of BNNs under adversarial attacks.
problem Evaluate vulnerability of BNNs to adversarial attacks.
method Relaxation techniques from non-convex optimization to compute probabilistic safety bounds.
result Certify probabilistic safety of BNNs with millions of parameters.
We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of infer…
Innovative PGMs match neural networks, revealing precise approximations during forward propagation.
problem Lack of precise semantics and probabilistic interpretation in neural networks.
method Constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond to neural networks.
result DNNs perform precise approximations of PGM inference during forward propagation.
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
problem Limited spatial patterns in current post-processing methods.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial wind speed information.
result CNNs produce better probabilistic forecasts with higher Brier skill scores.
uGMM-NN integrates probabilistic reasoning into neural networks.
problem Capturing multimodality and uncertainty in neural network activations.
method Parameterizes activations as univariate Gaussian mixtures with learnable parameters.
result Competitive discriminative performance with probabilistic activations.
With deep neural networks providing state-of-the-art machine learning models for numerous machine learning tasks, quantifying the robustness of these models has become an important area of research. However, most of the research literature merely focuses on the \textit{worst-case} setting where the input of the neural …
ProSMIN improves representation quality through probabilistic self-supervised learning.
problem Improving representation quality in self-supervised learning.
method ProSMIN uses two neural networks, online and target, to learn diverse representations through knowledge distillation and a modified scoring rule loss function.
result ProSMIN achieves superior accuracy and calibration on various downstream tasks.
Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expr…
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
Extends branch and bound for probabilistic neural network verification.
problem Probabilistic verification of neural networks.
method Split preactivations, use linear bounds, divide problems iteratively.
result Sound and complete for feedforward-ReLU networks.
Deep state space model forecasts time series with uncertainty.
problem Probabilistic forecasting for risk management.
method Parameterized deep networks for non-linear models, recurrent neural nets for dependency, ARD network for exogenous variables.
result Accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts with realistic uncertainty growth.
Develops inference combinators for probabilistic programs using neural networks.
problem Creating efficient proposals for probabilistic program inference.
method Inference combinators using neural network parameterization of proposals.
result Correct by construction variational methods tailored to specific models.
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
A new neural network model MDRBM improves noise-robustness in classification.
problem Improving noise-robustness in classification problems.
method Stacking a probabilistic-ELM layer on a discriminative restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBM).
result MDRBM outperforms other models, especially in noise-robustness.
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
problem Middle-term power consumption prediction in the energy sector.
method Incorporates trend, seasonality, and weather conditions in a shallow Neural Network.
result Excellent density forecast results on one-year test set.
Proposes DGCN with trajectory sampling for data-efficient policy search in MBRL.
problem Improving data efficiency in model-based reinforcement learning.
method Combines trajectory sampling and DGCN for uncertainty propagation in probabilistic world models.
result Improves sample-efficiency over other uncertainty propagation methods and probabilistic models.
Develops a neural framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems using trajectory-oriented approaches.
method D2D neural probabilistic forecasting framework using kernel mean embeddings and mixture density networks.
result The D2D model captures distributional evolution in chaotic systems and produces skillful probabilistic forecasts.
ProMoD models human race drivers with probabilistic movement primitives and neural networks.
problem Challenging task of modeling human driver behavior due to variability and complexity.
method Modular framework with Probabilistic Movement Primitives, clothoids, and neural networks.
result Significant advantages in imitation accuracy and robustness compared to other algorithms.
Recent studies have suggested that the cognitive process of the human brain is realized as probabilistic inference and can be further modeled by probabilistic graphical models like Markov random fields. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how probabilistic inference can be implemented by a network of spiking neurons in th…
Develops probabilistic models for gene regulatory network inference.
problem Challenges in reconstructing gene regulatory networks from genome-wide data.
method Two complementary frameworks: PMF-GRN and GLM-Prior.
result Probabilistic inference refines regulatory estimates with quantified uncertainty.
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable learning is a powerful new p…
Probabilistic method identifies Purkinje network from ECG data.
problem Challenging task of identifying Purkinje conduction system in heart.
method Bayesian optimization and approximate Bayesian computation for probabilistic identification.
result Generates a population of plausible Purkinje networks fitting ECG within tolerance.
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.
problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.
FDN improves probabilistic regressors' adaptability to distribution shifts.
problem Overconfidence in modern probabilistic regressors under distribution shift.
method FDN uses input-conditioned distributions over network weights, trained with a Monte Carlo beta-ELBO objective.
result FDN produces predictive mixtures whose dispersion adapts to the input, providing shift-aware uncertainty.
Paper analyzes GCNN sensitivity to probabilistic graph perturbations.
problem Investigating how GCNNs handle probabilistic graph errors.
method Establishes error bounds and linear relationships between GSO perturbations and GCNN outputs.
result GCNNs maintain stability under graph edge perturbations if GSO errors are bounded.
In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural netw…
We introduce and demonstrate the variational autoencoder (VAE) for probabilistic non-negative matrix factorisation (PAE-NMF). We design a network which can perform non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) and add in aspects of a VAE to make the coefficients of the latent space probabilistic. By restricting the weights i…
New method encodes function preferences into neural nets for better generalization.
problem Challenges in encoding explicit function preferences in neural network training.
method Function-space empirical Bayes (FSEB) regularization.
result FSEB leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection and improved generalization.
Paper revisits PCA for anomaly detection in network security.
problem Understanding and improving anomaly detection in network security.
method Revisit probabilistic PCA model and its connection to MSNM framework.
result Mathematical model connects PCA to MSNM for anomaly detection.
Proposes a deep learning model for probabilistic forecasting that is also interpretable.
problem Inability to explain predictions of neural network-based time series forecasting methods.
method Deep Autoregressive Networks (DANLIP) for locally interpretable probabilistic forecasting.
result DANLIP provides interpretable predictions with comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods.
Effectively combining logic reasoning and probabilistic inference has been a long-standing goal of machine learning: the former has the ability to generalize with small training data, while the latter provides a principled framework for dealing with noisy data. However, existing methods for combining the best of both w…
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively …
Neural networks are becoming increasingly prevalent in software, and it is therefore important to be able to verify their behavior. Because verifying the correctness of neural networks is extremely challenging, it is common to focus on the verification of other properties of these systems. One important property, in pa…