Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
problem Performance penalties for small steps in stiff systems.
method Probabilistic exponential integrators that include fast linear dynamics in the prior.
result Proven L-stability and probabilistic error accounting.
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in continuous latent-space models.
method Continuous mixtures of tractable probabilistic models with finite integration points.
result Hybrid models achieve state-of-the-art performance in density estimation.
Paper proposes a framework for probabilistic load forecasting by integrating point forecasts.
problem Short-term load forecasting for power systems energy management.
method Two-stage framework: first stage for point forecasting, second stage for probabilistic forecasting using feature integration.
result Numerical results show effectiveness of the proposed approach in hour-ahead load forecasting.
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
Responds to discussion on probabilistic integration in statistical computation.
problem The role of Bayesian ideas in numerical analysis and statistical computation.
method Responds to points raised by discussants and comments on fundamental questions.
result Further discussion on the use of Bayesian ideas in numerical analysis.
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
In this note, we extend an evolutionary stochastic portfolio optimization framework to include probabilistic constraints. Both the stochastic programming-based modeling environment as well as the evolutionary optimization environment are ideally suited for an integration of various types of probabilistic constraints. W…
There is renewed interest in formulating integration as an inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack theoretical analysis. A…
New method improves self-supervised representation learning using probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo integration.
problem Improving self-supervised representation learning for multimodal data.
method Discriminative probabilistic modeling with multiple importance sampling (MIS) for robust Monte Carlo integration.
result Proposes a novel non-parametric method for approximating conditional probability densities through convex optimization.
New framework integrates imitation and reinforcement learning for better robot performance.
problem Combining reinforcement and imitation learning for intelligent robotics.
method Extends probabilistic generative model framework for reinforcement learning and develops pMDP-MO for Markov decision processes.
result Significantly better performance than reinforcement or imitation learning alone.
A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical methods that enable the coherent propagation of probabilities through a (possibly dete…
This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.
Study improves probabilistic circuits using transformations for better predictions.
problem Predictive limitations of probabilistic circuits in robotic scenarios.
method Integrates transformations into joint probability trees, extending their capabilities.
result Achieves higher likelihoods with fewer parameters on various data sets.
uGMM-NN integrates probabilistic reasoning into neural networks.
problem Capturing multimodality and uncertainty in neural network activations.
method Parameterizes activations as univariate Gaussian mixtures with learnable parameters.
result Competitive discriminative performance with probabilistic activations.
Functional tensors unify probabilistic programming with automatic differentiation.
problem Designing probabilistic programming systems that can handle diverse inference strategies.
method Introducing functional tensors that capture benefits of tensors and continuous probability distributions.
result Functional tensors enable parallel exact inference for various modeling motifs.
We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unk…
This work proposes an unsupervised neural network framework for solving combinatorial optimization problems on graphs.
problem Challenges in neural networks solving combinatorial optimization problems without labeled instances.
method Inspired by Erdos' probabilistic method, a neural network parametrizes a probability distribution over sets, optimizing it to find low-cost integral solutions.
result The method provides valid solutions to the maximum clique problem and local graph clustering, achieving competitive results.
New framework integrates SPNs with weighted model integration for hybrid data.
problem Handling mixed discrete-continuous data with tractable probabilistic representations.
method Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) with weighted model integration for hybrid domains.
result Effective framework for conditioning on interval constraints in hybrid data.
Bayesian quadrature uses probabilistic models for estimating intractable integrals.
problem Estimating intractable integrals in complex models.
method Probabilistic, model-based approach using Gaussian processes.
result Comprehensive review and systematic taxonomy of Bayesian quadrature methods.
Unified framework for differentiable graph partitioning with probabilistic cuts.
problem Lack of general guarantees and principled gradients in prior probabilistic relaxations of graph cuts.
method Unified probabilistic framework covering a wide class of cuts, including Normalized Cut, with tight analytic upper bounds.
result Rigorous, numerically stable foundation for scalable, differentiable graph partitioning.
Fenrir uses probabilistic numerics to simplify solving initial value problems.
problem Solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations.
method Probabilistic numerics and Gauss--Markov regression.
result The method simplifies parameter estimation in ODEs, making it easier and more robust.
SVGP KAN integrates sparse variational GP with KANs for scalable probabilistic inference.
problem Lack of probabilistic outputs in standard KANs and cubic scaling of Gaussian Process methods.
method Sparse Variational GP-KAN combines KAN topology with sparse variational inference and permutation-based importance analysis.
result Enables probabilistic KANs to handle larger datasets with linear computational complexity.
This paper extends explainability methods to non-Gaussian Gaussian Processes.
problem Making non-Gaussian GP models transparent and explainable.
method Proposes Integrated Gradient-based explainability for non-Gaussian GP models.
result Offers both analytical and approximate solutions for non-Gaussian GP models.
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class…
A new method in finance without probabilities or integrals.
problem Creating a model-free approach to continuous-time finance.
method Pathwise approach using causal functional calculus and transition principle of Isaacs.
result A fully non-linear path-dependent equation characterizes optimal solutions.
HyperFair integrates fairness in recommender systems using probabilistic soft logic.
problem Ensuring fairness in recommender systems across diverse domains.
method Soft fairness constraints integrated as regularization in a joint inference objective function.
result HyperFair improves fairness of predictions from black-box models and hybrid systems.
Databases are widespread, yet extracting relevant data can be difficult. Without substantial domain knowledge, multivariate search queries often return sparse or uninformative results. This paper introduces an approach for searching structured data based on probabilistic programming and nonparametric Bayes. Users speci…
A generative model is developed for deep (multi-layered) convolutional dictionary learning. A novel probabilistic pooling operation is integrated into the deep model, yielding efficient bottom-up (pretraining) and top-down (refinement) probabilistic learning. Experimental results demonstrate powerful capabilities of th…
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.
We present a probabilistic framework for nonlinearities, based on doubly truncated Gaussian distributions. By setting the truncation points appropriately, we are able to generate various types of nonlinearities within a unified framework, including sigmoid, tanh and ReLU, the most commonly used nonlinearities in neural…
New probabilistic method constructs Kähler-Einstein metrics and suggests zero-free properties of zeta functions.
problem Existence and explicit formulas for Kähler-Einstein metrics on Fano varieties.
method Probabilistic construction involving canonical random point processes.
result Zero-free properties of Archimedean zeta functions and their relation to Langlands program.
ProFnet models HDFTS with neural networks, offering scalable probabilistic forecasts.
problem Modeling high-dimensional functional time series with nonlinear trends and high spatial dimensions.
method Integrates feedforward and deep neural networks with probabilistic modeling.
result Superior performance in forecasting Japan's mortality rates.
ProJIVE integrates multiple data types to explain joint and individual variation.
problem Integrating multiple types of data on the same subjects.
method Probabilistic EM algorithm for JIVE framework.
result ProJIVE learns biologically meaningful courses of variation and improves accuracy.
AdaWISH improves efficiency of discrete integration queries.
problem Efficiently solving discrete integration in high-dimensional spaces.
method Adaptive quantile queries to reduce query count.
result AdaWISH achieves the same approximation guarantee with fewer queries.
Bayesian Probabilistic Integration uses BART for high-dimensional, non-smooth functions.
problem Bayesian quadrature's limitations in high-dimensional or non-smooth functions.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors for numerical integration.
result Explicit convergence rates can be obtained in various settings.
This paper gives several simple constructions of the pathwise Ito integral ∫0tφdω for an integrand φ and a price path ω as integrator, with φ and ω satisfying various topological and analytical conditions. The definitions are purely pathwise in that neither φ nor ω are assumed to be paths of stochast…
The paper improves ODE solvers by integrating diverse information types.
problem Improving accuracy and physical meaningfulness of ODE solutions.
method Leveraging probabilistic solvers to include second-order information and physical conservation laws.
result Solutions become more accurate and physically meaningful with additional information.
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
We present a new model-based integrative method for clustering objects given both vectorial data, which describes the feature of each object, and network data, which indicates the similarity of connected objects. The proposed general model is able to cluster the two types of data simultaneously within one integrative p…
The paper explores how to learn models that respect constraints in probabilistic learning.
problem Learning models that respect declared constraints in probabilistic learning.
method Mathematical inquiry on tractable probabilistic models like sum-product networks.
result Determines conditions under which constraints can be integrated with model learning.
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
Paper introduces MPPGA for integrating multiple PGA models on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Challenges in dimensionality reduction on Riemannian manifolds with multiple modalities.
method Develops a mixture probabilistic principal geodesic analysis (MPPGA) model.
result Demonstrates improved clustering and shape analysis using MPPGA.
It is time-consuming and error-prone to implement inference procedures for each new probabilistic model. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and having a compiler automatically generate an inference procedure for it. For this approach to be practical, it is important…
ProGO optimizes non-convex functions without gradients, outperforming existing methods.
problem Challenges in global optimization, especially with non-convex functions and limited gradient information.
method Probabilistic approach using multidimensional integration and latent slice sampler.
result ProGO converges to global optima efficiently and outperforms existing methods.
Transfer learning improves sparse, interpretable probabilistic classification.
problem Sparse and interpretable models in transfer learning.
method Two transfer learning extensions integrated into sparse and interpretable probabilistic classification vector machine.
result Transfer learning extensions improve sparsity and performance.
In this short note we outline a simple probabilistic proof of the Gauss-Bonnet formula for compact Riemannian manifolds with boundary, which adapts to this setting an argument due to Hsu \cite{Hs1,Hs2} in the closed case. The new technical ingredient is the Feynman-Kac formula for differential forms satisfying absolute…
We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as t…
Kernel quadrature improves CRPS estimation for probabilistic time-series forecasting.
problem Intractable integrations in CRPS evaluation metrics lead to improper rankings of forecasting models.
method Introduced kernel quadrature approach for unbiased CRPS estimation and scalable computation.
result Our approach consistently outperforms existing CRPS estimators.