Study improves probabilistic circuits using transformations for better predictions.
problem Predictive limitations of probabilistic circuits in robotic scenarios.
method Integrates transformations into joint probability trees, extending their capabilities.
result Achieves higher likelihoods with fewer parameters on various data sets.
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
problem Solving high-dimensional ODEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Probabilistic numerical algorithm based on independence assumptions or Kronecker structure.
result Efficient probabilistic solutions for ODEs with millions of dimensions.
New method uses probabilistic independence to discover disease signatures from medical records.
problem Insufficiently precise diagnosis of clinical disease leading to treatment failures.
method Unsupervised machine learning using probabilistic independence to disentangle disease patterns.
result Inferred 2000 clinical disease signatures from medical records, improving cancer prediction.
The article explains the probabilistic method of default probability estimation by Pluto and Tasche.
problem Estimating default probabilities for portfolios with low default rates.
method Detailed derivation and explanation of the Pluto-Tasche method, including assumptions and inequalities.
result Clarification of borrower independence, conditional independence, and interaction between probability distributions.
Type system captures CI relationships for probabilistic models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with mixed discrete and continuous parameters.
method Information flow type system for probabilistic programming.
result Well-typed programs guarantee certain CI relationships.
New research challenges the independence assumption in neurosymbolic learning, leading to overconfident predictions and unrepresentable uncertainty.
problem The independence assumption in neurosymbolic learning systems can lead to overconfident predictions and hinder uncertainty quantification.
method The study proves the limitations of the independence assumption and introduces new loss functions that are non-convex and difficult to optimise.
result Neurosymbolic learning systems using the independence assumption are prone to overconfidence and cannot represent uncertainty over multiple valid options.
Distributions over rankings are used to model data in various settings such as preference analysis and political elections. The factorial size of the space of rankings, however, typically forces one to make structural assumptions, such as smoothness, sparsity, or probabilistic independence about these underlying distri…
New approach reveals causal and probabilistic relationships from equations.
problem Understanding causal and probabilistic relationships from sets of equations.
method Simon's causal ordering algorithm and Markov ordering graph construction.
result Implied conditional independences and causal relations without solving equations.
Entropy analysis via kernel methods for probabilistic inference.
problem Entropy analysis of probability distributions.
method Kernel methods and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for entropy estimation.
result New upper-bounds on log partition functions for probabilistic inference.
In many supervised learning tasks, the entities to be labeled are related to each other in complex ways and their labels are not independent. For example, in hypertext classification, the labels of linked pages are highly correlated. A standard approach is to classify each entity independently, ignoring the correlation…
CMRFs extend PGMs for topological data, capturing both conditional and marginal dependencies.
problem Limited expressiveness of PGMs for topological data.
method Introducing Colored Markov Random Fields (CMRFs) that model Gaussian edge variables on topological spaces.
result CMRFs improve distributed estimation over physical networks compared to baselines.
We study the spherical cap packing problem with a probabilistic approach. Such probabilistic considerations result in an asymptotic sharp universal uniform bound on the maximal inner product between any set of unit vectors and a stochastically independent uniformly distributed unit vector. When the set of unit vectors …
We consider a problem of stochastic online learning with general probabilistic graph feedback, where each directed edge in the feedback graph has probability pij. Two cases are covered. (a) The one-step case, where after playing arm i the learner observes a sample reward feedback of arm j with independent prob…
We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any graphical model, can be optimized with respect to an arbitrary subset of its sampled …
Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a group level scalable probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component pruning using automa…
Paper introduces a nonparametric functional graphical model for random functions.
problem Estimating probabilistic conditional independence in functional graphical models.
method Functional sufficient dimension reduction to relax Gaussian or copula Gaussian assumptions.
result Enhances estimation accuracy and retains probabilistic conditional independence.
It is time-consuming and error-prone to implement inference procedures for each new probabilistic model. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and having a compiler automatically generate an inference procedure for it. For this approach to be practical, it is important…
Derives derivatives and geometric framework for functions with non-independent variables.
problem Characterizing functions with non-independent variables in probabilistic models.
method Derives actual and dependent partial derivatives, dependent Jacobian matrix, and tensor metric.
result Derives gradient, Hessian, and Taylor expansion for functions with non-independent variables.
New method stabilizes probabilistic ODE solvers for high accuracy.
problem Numerical instability in high-order ODE solvers.
method Accurate initialisation, coordinate change preconditioner, square-root implementation.
result Probabilistic ODE solvers can now achieve high order (up to 11) with stability.
Normalizing flows are shown to be equivalent to Bayesian networks, revealing new insights.
problem Understanding the limitations and capabilities of normalizing flows.
method Revisiting normalizing flows as probabilistic graphical models and analyzing their structure.
result Normalizing flows can be reduced to Bayesian networks, revealing new insights into their structure and capabilities.
Paper improves CMAB regret bounds by reducing batch-size dependency.
problem Reducing batch-size dependency in combinatorial semi-bandits.
method Developed BCUCB-T and SESCB algorithms with new TPVM conditions.
result Significantly improved regret bounds for various applications.
Neurosymbolic predictors fail to model uncertainty under independence assumption.
problem Neurosymbolic predictors' reliance on independence assumption limits their ability to model uncertainty.
method Formal analysis of NeSy predictors under independence assumption.
result Assuming independence among symbolic concepts prevents NeSy predictors from representing uncertainty.
Paper proposes a method for weather-informed probabilistic forecasting and scenario generation in power systems.
problem Challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into power grids due to their stochasticity and uncertainty.
method Combines probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model.
The Gibbs sampler is one of the most popular algorithms for inference in statistical models. In this paper, we introduce a herding variant of this algorithm, called herded Gibbs, that is entirely deterministic. We prove that herded Gibbs has an O(1/T) convergence rate for models with independent variables and for ful…
The paper introduces a method to model error correlations in multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Accurate modeling of error correlations for reliable uncertainty quantification.
method Plug-and-play method that learns error covariance over multiple steps using low-rank-plus-diagonal and independent latent temporal processes.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification without significantly increasing parameter size.
Capsule models enforce object pose relationships for robustness, explored with probabilistic generative and variational methods.
problem Enforcing object pose relationships for robustness to viewpoint changes.
method Probabilistic generative model with variational bound, exploring capsule assumptions and inference mechanisms.
result Unified objective and test time optimisation demonstrated for capsule models.
Improved deep probabilistic time series forecasting by learning error autocorrelation.
problem Simplification of time-independent error process and lack of serial correlation in existing models.
method Proposes a training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to enhance probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification across multiple datasets.
New metrics improve probabilistic forecasting, especially for rare events.
problem Current evaluation frameworks for probabilistic forecasting assume independence and lack sensitivity to tail events.
method Proposed signature kernel-based metrics: Sig-MMD and CSig-MMD.
result These metrics capture complex dependencies and prioritize tail event prediction.
In Bayesian classification, it is important to establish a probabilistic model for each class for likelihood estimation. Most of the previous methods modeled the probability distribution in the whole sample space. However, real-world problems are usually too complex to model in the whole sample space; some fundamental …
Quantitatively assessing relationships between latent variables and observed variables is important for understanding and developing generative models and representation learning. In this paper, we propose latent-observed dissimilarity (LOD) to evaluate the dissimilarity between the probabilistic characteristics of lat…
Bayesian model fuses multiple classifiers with explicit correlation modeling.
problem Combining outputs of multiple classifiers with explicit correlation.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with correlated Dirichlet distribution.
result Fused classifier performance can be Bayes optimal even for highly correlated base classifiers.
The paper studies batch decompositions of random datasets with probabilistic similarity constraints.
problem Understanding how to optimally split large datasets into batches for better model learning.
method Assumes independent data points from a space, defines similarity, and uses probabilistic and martingale methods to find bounds on batch sizes.
result Demonstrates an inherent tradeoff between relaxing similarity constraints and batch size, and provides bounds for maximum similarity subsets.
Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)--which includes Bayesian Net…
NP-HMC extends HMC for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
problem Inference for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
method Introduces NP-HMC, a generalization of HMC for nonparametric models using tree representable functions.
result Empirically shows significant performance improvements over existing approaches.
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time i…
New method for MCMC models without perfect or sequential samplers.
problem Bayesian inference for complex models with intractable terms.
method Utilizes tractable independence model to construct unbiased estimates.
result Scalable method for high-dimensional models.
Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.
problem Evaluating and improving probabilistic forecasts using generative models.
method Training generative networks to minimize predictive-sequential scoring rules on temporal sequences.
result Our method outperforms adversarial approaches in probabilistic calibration.
Probabilistic Temporal Tensor Factorization (PTTF) is an effective algorithm to model the temporal tensor data. It leverages a time constraint to capture the evolving properties of tensor data. Nowadays the exploding dataset demands a large scale PTTF analysis, and a parallel solution is critical to accommodate the tre…
Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expr…
Survey of methods to recover CI graphs from feature relationships.
problem Recovering conditional independence graphs from feature relationships.
method Traditional optimization methods and deep learning architectures are discussed.
result Advances in techniques to recover CI graphs are studied.
WCPS extends CPS to handle covariate shifts, providing probabilistically calibrated predictions.
problem Applying CPS to scenarios with covariate shifts.
method WCPS uses likelihood ratios between training and testing covariate distributions.
result WCPS are probabilistically calibrated under covariate shift.
XSPNs combine SPNs and MEVMs for efficient inference in data with repeated parts.
problem Efficient inference in data with repeated interchangeable parts.
method Introducing Exchangeability-Aware Sum-Product Networks (XSPNs) that combine SPNs and MEVMs.
result XSPNs can be more accurate than conventional SPNs when data contains repeated parts.
Probabilistic theory counts intersections in Riemannian spaces.
problem Counting intersections in Riemannian homogeneous spaces.
method Introduces probabilistic intersection ring HE(M), a graded commutative and associative real Banach algebra. result Probabilistic intersection ring structure defined for spheres, real projective space, and complex projective space.
Representing distributions over permutations can be a daunting task due to the fact that the number of permutations of n objects scales factorially in n. One recent way that has been used to reduce storage complexity has been to exploit probabilistic independence, but as we argue, full independence assumptions impo…
Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false positives. This paper proposes an approach that combines probabilistic programming, …
Efficiently certifies global robustness of large neural networks with probabilistic guarantees.
problem Certifying robustness of large neural networks in a scalable and efficient manner.
method Sampling an ε-net and invoking a local robustness oracle.
result Certifies a probabilistic relaxation of robustness efficiently and globally.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
Predictive modelling and supervised learning are central to modern data science. With predictions from an ever-expanding number of supervised black-box strategies - e.g., kernel methods, random forests, deep learning aka neural networks - being employed as a basis for decision making processes, it is crucial to underst…