A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
problem Adapting models to new data under distributional shift
method State-space modelling architecture
result Characterizing parameter learning, time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction
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48 results for “probabilistic framework”
A Distribution-to-Distribution Neural Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Dynamical Systemsstat.ML
Develops a neural framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems using trajectory-oriented approaches.
method D2D neural probabilistic forecasting framework using kernel mean embeddings and mixture density networks.
result The D2D model captures distributional evolution in chaotic systems and produces skillful probabilistic forecasts.
Extends DeTEcT framework for token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.
problem Modeling wealth distribution in token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.
method Introduces four parametrization techniques: dynamic vs static, probabilistic vs non-probabilistic.
result Derives existing wealth distribution models from DeTEcT framework with added restrictions.
New framework uses cohomology to analyze probabilistic distortions and arbitrage.
problem Analyzing probabilistic distortions and arbitrage in categorical filtrations.
method Transport cohomological framework, simplicial structure, loop effects, holonomy.
result Nontrivial probabilistic distortions and obstructions generated by loops.
Unified framework for differentiable graph partitioning with probabilistic cuts.
problem Lack of general guarantees and principled gradients in prior probabilistic relaxations of graph cuts.
method Unified probabilistic framework covering a wide class of cuts, including Normalized Cut, with tight analytic upper bounds.
result Rigorous, numerically stable foundation for scalable, differentiable graph partitioning.
The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrag…
ProbDR framework interprets DR algorithms as probabilistic inference.
problem Efficiently compressing high-dimensional data into lower dimensions.
method ProbDR variational framework that treats DR as probabilistic inference.
result ProbDR unifies various DR algorithms and enables probabilistic reasoning.
Unified probabilistic foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets in dimensionality reduction.
problem Lack of clear probabilistic interpretation in fuzzy simplicial sets.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework explaining fuzzy simplicial sets as marginals of probability measures on simplicial sets.
result Unified probabilistic theoretical foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets.
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
problem Efficiently simulate physics in games using probabilistic programming.
method Combines model-free and model-based approaches to improve efficiency.
result Model outperforms model-free or model-based approaches alone.
A new probabilistic mixup framework improves deep learning generalization.
problem Improving deep learning generalization performance.
method Introduces a novel probabilistic mixup framework for conditional density estimation.
result Empirical results show benefits over existing mixup variants.
I-trustworthy Models. A framework for trustworthiness evaluation of probabilistic classifiersstat.ML
A framework assesses the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers using local calibration error.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers beyond traditional metrics.
method I-trustworthy framework linking local calibration to trustworthiness; Kernel Local Calibration Error (KLCE) method for hypothesis testing.
result The effectiveness of the proposed test statistic demonstrated through simulated and real-world datasets.
Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.
Paper presents a probabilistic framework for diffusion synchronization.
problem Improper application of heuristics leads to suboptimal results in diffusion synchronization.
method Develops a probabilistic framework to analyze and adapt correlation models for each specific task.
result Achieves better results by identifying optimal correlation models per task.
Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
problem Designing biological sequences efficiently and accurately.
method Unified probabilistic framework integrating likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
result Previous optimization methods can be adapted and new algorithms proposed within this framework.
We present a theoretical framework of probabilistic learning derived by Maximum Probability (MP) Theorem shown in the current paper. In this probabilistic framework, a model is defined as an event in the probability space, and a model or the associated event -- either the true underlying model or the parameterized mode…
Probabilistic atlases provide essential spatial contextual information for image interpretation, Bayesian modeling, and algorithmic processing. Such atlases are typically constructed by grouping subjects with similar demographic information. Importantly, use of the same scanner minimizes inter-group variability. Howeve…
We develop a probabilistic consumer choice framework based on information asymmetry between consumers and firms. This framework makes it possible to study market competition of several firms by both quality and price of their products. We find Nash market equilibria and other optimal strategies in various situations ra…
Paper proposes a unified framework for evaluating calibration of probabilistic models.
problem Evaluation of calibration for general probabilistic predictive models.
method Unified framework for calibration evaluation and tests for any probabilistic model.
result Generalization and reformulation of existing measures and tests.
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
Develops inference combinators for probabilistic programs using neural networks.
problem Creating efficient proposals for probabilistic program inference.
method Inference combinators using neural network parameterization of proposals.
result Correct by construction variational methods tailored to specific models.
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
DIN framework directly models hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty.
problem Modeling hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty in groundwater flow.
method DIN utilizes DDPM as a prior learner, incorporating observational data through conditional injection mechanisms.
result DIN generates multiple constraint-satisfying realizations and accurate uncertainty quantification.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
problem Balancing tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic models.
method Introduce probabilistic neural circuits (PNCs) as a mix of Bayesian networks and neural networks.
result PNCs are powerful function approximators.
The combination of a CNN detector and a search framework forms the basis for local object/pattern detection. To handle the waste of regional information and the defective compromise between efficiency and accuracy, this paper proposes a probabilistic model with a powerful search framework. By mapping an image into a pr…
New framework for probabilistic linear solvers reduces manual effort.
problem Manual implementation of probabilistic iterative methods is laborious.
method Affine Tracing: Automatically constructs PIMs from standard implementations.
result Any realistic affine PIM is calibrated, motivating their adoption.
Hybrid framework combines PGMs and TNs for complex probabilistic modeling.
problem Combining quantum-like correlations into PGM models.
method Introducing decoherence to convert probabilistic TN models into PGMs.
result Hybrid models can represent and combine strengths of both PGMs and TNs.
We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for solving sequential decision making problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to contextual bandits and reinforcement learning. This is accomplished by a probabilistic model-based approach that explains observed data while capturing predictive uncertainty during the d…
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
problem Efficient inference for probabilistic deep state-space models.
method Deterministic inference algorithm for ProDSSM with neural network weights.
result Superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.
We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design c…
A new framework for robot block-stacking tasks using causal probabilistic models.
problem Robots fail outside controlled environments due to uncertainty and lack of explicit design for all scenarios.
method Causal probabilistic framework combining causal models and probabilistic representations of noise.
result Robots can perceive, reason about, and explain their environment for block-stacking tasks.
We present a unifying framework which reduces the construction of probabilistic component analysis techniques to a mere selection of the latent neighbourhood, thus providing an elegant and principled framework for creating novel component analysis models as well as constructing probabilistic equivalents of deterministi…
In this paper we provide a conceptual overview of latent variable models within a probabilistic modeling framework, an overview that emphasizes the compositional nature and the interconnectedness of the seemingly disparate models commonly encountered in statistical practice.
We present a probabilistic framework for nonlinearities, based on doubly truncated Gaussian distributions. By setting the truncation points appropriately, we are able to generate various types of nonlinearities within a unified framework, including sigmoid, tanh and ReLU, the most commonly used nonlinearities in neural…
A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.
problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.
Probabilistic thermal stability prediction through sparsity promoting transformer representationstat.ML
Paper improves Tm prediction of protein fragments using sparsity and probabilistic models.
problem Improving accuracy of melting temperature prediction for protein fragments.
method Promoting sparsity in pre-trained transformer models and adopting probabilistic frameworks.
result Mean absolute error of 0.23C for predicting melting temperature.
Study proposes a multi-agent framework to mitigate bias in sentiment analysis.
problem Bias in sentiment analysis models.
method Integrates multiple LLMs, incorporates dialogue sessions, and uses probabilistic prediction.
result KCS+IBC reduces entropy and increases variance, suggesting improved balance between aggregation and diversity.
PPPD framework extracts physical characterizations from stochastic mechanical systems.
problem Complex system behavior requires more than probabilistic descriptions of QoI.
method Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD) framework.
result Decomposes system behaviors into meaningful patterns in response space.
New CAGP-GS framework improves Gaussian process uncertainty quantification.
problem Scaling issue in Gaussian processes for large datasets.
method Calibrated probabilistic linear solvers for reduced complexity.
result CAGP-GS framework provides more realistic uncertainty quantification.
Models of complex systems are often formalized as sequential software simulators: computationally intensive programs that iteratively build up probable system configurations given parameters and initial conditions. These simulators enable modelers to capture effects that are difficult to characterize analytically or su…
In this note, we extend an evolutionary stochastic portfolio optimization framework to include probabilistic constraints. Both the stochastic programming-based modeling environment as well as the evolutionary optimization environment are ideally suited for an integration of various types of probabilistic constraints. W…
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
problem Solving high-dimensional ODEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Probabilistic numerical algorithm based on independence assumptions or Kronecker structure.
result Efficient probabilistic solutions for ODEs with millions of dimensions.
Understanding and modeling human driver behavior is crucial for advanced vehicle development. However, unique driving styles, inconsistent behavior, and complex decision processes render it a challenging task, and existing approaches often lack variability or robustness. To approach this problem, we propose Probabilist…
Enhances Bayesian model comparison with a probabilistic framework for meta-uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in posterior model probabilities (PMPs) when derived from finite data.
method Develops a fully probabilistic approach to quantify and represent meta-uncertainty over PMPs.
result Demonstrates utility in various BMC contexts, including regression, MCMC, and neural networks.
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
A new probabilistic framework for optimal transport using collective graphical models.
problem Measuring similarity between probability distributions and histograms.
method Probabilistic Optimal Transport based on Collective Graphical Models.
result OT with entropic regularization is equivalent to maximizing a posterior probability of a CGM.
Deep neural operators learn complex probabilistic models efficiently.
problem Learning complex probabilistic models with global Lipschitz conditions.
method Deep neural-operator framework under global Lipschitz conditions.
result Explicit network-size bounds for universal approximation of probabilistic models.
Higher-Order Generalization Bounds: Learning Deep Probabilistic Programs via PAC-Bayes Objectivescs.LG
Unified framework for learning flexible probabilistic programs using DPP and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Learning and generalizing from complex probabilistic models.
method Unified DPP representation and PAC-Bayes bounds for stochastic programs.
result Improved performance and generalization prediction using flexible DPP model representations and learned complexity measures.