Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
problem Difficulty in fitting probabilistic models due to intractable partition function.
method Minimum Probability Flow (MPF) method for parameter estimation.
result MPF outperforms existing techniques in convergence time and accuracy.
In general, gradient estimates are very important and necessary for deriving convergence results in different geometric flows, and most of them are obtained by analytic methods. In this paper, we will apply a stochastic approach to systematically give gradient estimates for some important geometric quantities under the…
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
New method learns PDE solutions from low-fidelity data.
problem Challenges in learning PDE surrogates with scarce data.
method Flow matching in infinite-dimensional space with conditional neural operators.
result Accurately learns PDE solutions across different resolutions and fidelities.
ProFITi model forecasts irregular time series with missing values using conditional flows.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values.
method ProFITi model uses conditional normalizing flows and invertible layers to learn joint distributions conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times.
result ProFITi model provides 4 times higher likelihood than the previous best model.
EMFs combine deep learning and probabilistic models for better density estimation.
problem Combining domain-specific knowledge with general-purpose deep learning.
method Alternating transformations with structured layers that embed domain-specific inductive biases.
result EMFs induce desirable properties like multimodality and hierarchical coupling.
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.
Paper uses GMM and MAF for probabilistic classification, outperforming simpler models.
problem Classifying data with complex distributions.
method Density estimation using Gaussian Mixture Model and Masked Autoregressive Flow.
result Proposed classifiers outperform simpler models like linear discriminant analysis.
Generative flow networks use RL to learn probabilistic models efficiently.
problem Training generative models with RL for compositional discrete objects.
method Reformulate GFlowNet training as entropy-regularized RL with specific reward and regularizer.
result Entropy-regularized RL can be competitive with established GFlowNet training methods.
EB-GFN models discrete data with amortized MCMC sampling.
problem Probabilistic modeling of high-dimensional discrete data.
method EB-GFN combines GFlowNets with energy-based models for efficient sampling.
result EB-GFN effectively models various discrete data tasks.
Language Rectified Flow improves diffusion language generation by simplifying complex steps.
problem Complexity in diffusion language models limits their implementation in NLP applications.
method Reformulates probabilistic flow models to learn neural ODE models for efficient domain transfer.
result Consistently outperforms baselines on fine-grained control tasks and text editing.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
problem Solving power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
method Non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation using Gaussian Processes.
result The method provides reasonably accurate solutions with fewer samples and time compared to Monte-Carlo simulations.
Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expa…
Normalizing flows are shown to be equivalent to Bayesian networks, revealing new insights.
problem Understanding the limitations and capabilities of normalizing flows.
method Revisiting normalizing flows as probabilistic graphical models and analyzing their structure.
result Normalizing flows can be reduced to Bayesian networks, revealing new insights into their structure and capabilities.
iEFM trains CNF models from unnormalized densities efficiently.
problem Training generators from energy functions or unnormalized densities.
method Iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM) with simulation-free objective.
result iEFM outperforms existing methods in probabilistic modeling.
A deep learning method for probabilistic weather forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of weather.
method Two chained machine-learning steps: dimension reduction and density estimation using normalizing flows.
result The method produces accurate conditional forecast distributions for weather.
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
problem Uncertainty in renewable energy forecasting for power systems.
method Normalizing flows for direct learning of multivariate stochastic distributions.
result Normalizing flows outperform other deep learning models in probabilistic forecasting.
Proposes a probabilistic approach to semi-supervised learning using normalizing flows.
problem Leveraging unlabelled data for semi-supervised learning with limited labelled data.
method Uses a normalizing flow to learn the posterior distribution over predictions for labelled data, serving as a prior for unlabelled data.
result Demonstrates improved performance on various tasks with varying output complexity.
RegFlow models future states with flexible probability distributions.
problem Predicting future states under complex, non-deterministic scenarios.
method Hypernetwork architecture and continuous normalizing flow model.
result RegFlow achieves state-of-the-art results on benchmark datasets.
CW-Gen models improve probabilistic time series forecasting by incorporating prior information.
problem Challenges in probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts.
method CW-Gen framework that incorporates prior information through conditional whitening. JMCE learns conditional mean and covariance, improving sample quality.
result CW-Gen consistently enhances predictive performance, capturing non-stationary dynamics and inter-variable correlations more effectively than prior-free approaches.
Probabilistic Autoencoder learns latent space weights' distribution.
problem Nonlinear model reconstruction error and sample quality.
method Normalizing flow for latent space weights' probability distribution.
result PAE achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance.
This paper introduces a new probabilistic model for online learning which dynamically incorporates information from stochastic gradients of an arbitrary loss function. Similar to probabilistic filtering, the model maintains a Gaussian belief over the optimal weight parameters. Unlike traditional Bayesian updates, the m…
Normalizing flows optimize Jacobian determinant for unique likelihood objective.
problem Optimizing normalizing flows for unique likelihood.
method Showed Jacobian determinant is unique for given distributions, leading to a unique global optimum. Used eigenvalues of auto-correlation matrix for explicit likelihood expression.
result Explicit expression of likelihood for flows, independent of neural network parameterization, with theoretical optimal value.
The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.
problem High variability in short-term load forecasting at the low-voltage level due to fluctuating demand and increasing electrification.
method Flexible conditional density forecasting based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows with neural network control.
result Density predictions outperform traditional methods for 24h-ahead load forecasting.
Injective flows for star-like manifolds improve variational inference efficiency.
problem Efficiently modeling densities on star-like manifolds with exact Jacobian computation.
method Proposed injective flows for star-like manifolds with exact Jacobian computation.
result Exact Jacobian computation for star-like manifolds reduces computational cost to NFs.
Study reveals structure of Bitcoin's crypto flow network.
problem Understanding crypto flows among Bitcoin users.
method Blockchain data, user identification, network construction, bow-tie structure, Hodge decomposition, non-negative matrix factorization.
result Users are located in upstream, downstream, and core of the crypto flow network.
We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to Turing-complete probabilistic programming languages and supports accurate inference in models …
This work combines recurrent models with diffusion for probabilistic time series forecasting.
problem Scalability and capturing high-dimensional distributions and cross-feature dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Combines recurrent neural networks' efficiency with diffusion models' probabilistic modeling, using stochastic interpolants and conditional generation.
result Offers scalable probabilistic time series forecasting methods.
DIN framework directly models hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty.
problem Modeling hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty in groundwater flow.
method DIN utilizes DDPM as a prior learner, incorporating observational data through conditional injection mechanisms.
result DIN generates multiple constraint-satisfying realizations and accurate uncertainty quantification.
FalconBC improves patient-specific cardiovascular modeling by estimating boundary conditions efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating boundary conditions in patient-specific cardiovascular models, especially in open-loop models and anatomies with lesions.
method A general amortized inference framework based on probabilistic flow that treats clinical targets and anatomies as conditioning variables.
result Demonstrated on two patient-specific models, FalconBC improves efficiency and accuracy in estimating boundary conditions.
New game approximates mean curvature flow evolution.
problem Approximating geometric mean curvature flow evolution.
method Two-player zero-sum game with probabilistic elements.
result Value function approximates mean curvature flow.
Probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is an important analytical tool to ensure the secure and economic operation of power systems. POPF needs to solve enormous nonlinear and nonconvex optimization problems. The huge computational burden has become the major bottleneck for the practical application. This paper presen…
Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.
Simple probabilistic solution for optimal liquidation with linear price impact.
problem Maximizing expected terminal wealth in a setup with quadratic transaction costs.
method Provided a simple probabilistic solution to the problem.
result Simple and probabilistic form of the solution not previously published.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
A new framework enhances generative modeling by learning local flows over complex manifolds.
problem Limited expressivity of current normalizing flows for low-dimensional manifolds.
method Vector quantized local normalizing flows (VQ-Flows) using a VQ-AE atlas and conditional flows.
result Enhanced modeling of complex data distributions over manifolds.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
Paper introduces new methods for modeling categorical data.
problem Training generative models on categorical data like text and segmentation.
method Argmax Flows and Multinomial Diffusion models.
result Models outperform existing methods in log-likelihood.
TSFlow uses Gaussian processes to match priors for better time series forecasting.
problem Difficulties in aligning generative models' priors with time series data.
method Conditional flow matching (CFM) with Gaussian processes, optimal transport, and data-dependent priors.
result TSFlow produces high-quality unconditional samples and competitive forecasting results.
Improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty characterization for spatio-temporal data.
problem Lack of uncertainty characterization in classical and deep learning models for spatio-temporal data.
method Bayesian inference using particle flow for approximating the posterior distribution of hidden states.
result Our approach provides better uncertainty characterization while maintaining comparable accuracy.
Motivated by a probabilistic approach to Kahler-Einstein metrics we consider a general non-equilibrium statistical mechanics model in Euclidean space consisting of the stochastic gradient flow of a given (possibly singular) quasi-convex N-particle interaction energy. We show that a deterministic "macroscopic" evolution…
Theory broadens GFlowNets to handle continuous spaces.
problem Limitation of GFlowNets to discrete spaces.
method Developed a theory for generalized GFlowNets.
result Empirical results show strong performance in continuous cases.
New model reconstructs flow from sparse data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Reconstructing nonlinear flow from limited observations.
method Semi-Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE) for probabilistic flow reconstruction.
result SCVAE improves reconstruction accuracy compared to Gappy Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (GPOD).
Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions…
CPFM integrates dimensionality reduction and reconstruction with flow networks.
problem Learning coupled continuous flows for data and embeddings.
method Coupled flow matching framework with Gromov-Wasserstein objective and dual-conditional flow network.
result CPFM preserves and recovers residual information in latent space.
A new model combines normalizing flows with mixture components for better density estimation.
problem Lack of explicit probability density functions in deep generative models.
method Variational mixture of normalizing flows, using variational inference and neural network parameters.
result The model can perform density estimation, semi-supervised learning, and clustering.