Probabilistic programming languages represent complex data with intermingled models in a few lines of code. Efficient inference algorithms in probabilistic programming languages make possible to build unified frameworks to compute interesting probabilities of various large, real-world problems. When the structure of mo…
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48 results for “probabilistic descriptions”
Study develops time-continuous models and probabilistic descriptions for agent-based economic market models.
problem Formulating and describing agent-based economic market models in a time-continuous and probabilistic manner.
method Derived time-continuous formulations, discussed impact of time-scaling, proved stability, presented probabilistic descriptions using kinetic theory.
result Time-continuous formulations and probabilistic descriptions for agent-based economic market models.
We analyze complexity of financial (and general economic) processes by comparing classical and quantum-like models for randomness. Our analysis implies that it might be that a quantum-like probabilistic description is more natural for financial market than the classical one. A part of our analysis is devoted to study t…
Classy learns interpretable probabilistic rule lists for multiclass classification.
problem Creating interpretable multiclass classifiers that are both accurate and understandable.
method Probabilistic rule lists and minimum description length (MDL) principle for model selection.
result Classy selects small probabilistic rule lists that outperform state-of-the-art classifiers in terms of predictive performance and interpretability.
PPPD framework extracts physical characterizations from stochastic mechanical systems.
problem Complex system behavior requires more than probabilistic descriptions of QoI.
method Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD) framework.
result Decomposes system behaviors into meaningful patterns in response space.
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this wor…
Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic ODE solutions is not well-calibrated for adaptive step sizes.
method Introduce and assess several calibration methods for probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Calibration methods interact efficiently with adaptive step-size selection, improving posteriors.
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
Concepts of polymer statistical topologycond-mat.stat-mech
I review few conceptual steps in analytic description of topological interactions, which constitute the basis of a new interdisciplinary branch in mathematical physics, "Statistical Topology", emerged at the edge of topology and statistical physics of fluctuating non-phantom rope-like objects. This new branch is called…
Paper introduces Ddim, a new measure of model complexity, for MDL-based learning and change detection.
problem Characterizing the complexity of probabilistic models for efficient learning and change detection.
method Introduces descriptive dimension (Ddim) as a measure of model complexity. Derives convergence rates and error probabilities for MDL-based learning and change detection.
result Ddim characterizes the performance of MDL-based learning and change detection.
Enhances SVM for uncertain data with probabilistic Gaussian distributions.
problem Binary classification with uncertain data and error bounds.
method Probabilistic kernel Support Vector Machines using Gaussian distributions.
result Suitable kernel function for uncertain data.
The pattern theory of Grenander is a mathematical framework where patterns are represented by probability models on random variables of algebraic structures. In this paper, we review three families of probability models, namely, the discriminative models, the descriptive models, and the generative models. A discriminat…
Autoencoders improve communication system performance by optimizing constellation geometry and probability.
problem Optimizing constellation geometry and probability for better communication system performance.
method Leveraging autoencoders to learn capacity-achieving symbol distributions and constellations.
result Learned constellations achieve information rates very close to capacity on AWGN channels and outperform existing methods on fading channels.
A stochastic model for pure-jump diffusion (the compound renewal process) can be used as a zero-order approximation and as a phenomenological description of tick-by-tick price fluctuations. This leads to an exact and explicit general formula for the martingale price of a European call option. A complete derivation of t…
We use probabilistic methods to study classical solutions for systems of interacting semilinear parabolic partial differential equations. In a modeling framework for a financial market with interacting Ito and point processes, such PDEs are shown to provide a natural description for the solution of hedging and valuatio…
Paper tackles cold-start domain adaptation with language descriptions.
problem Cold-start domain adaptation failure with scarce target data.
method Leverages textual descriptions to learn preferences from LLM, integrates into EM algorithm.
result Framework guides source selection for weak target signals, improves as data accumulates.
Model uses LLMs to process numerical data guided by natural language descriptions.
problem Challenges in integrating prior knowledge into probabilistic models.
method Developed LLM Processes to condition numerical predictive distributions on natural language.
result Improved predictive performance and structured qualitative descriptions.
Structural and Convergence Analysis of Discrete-Time Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelsmath.PR
The paper analyzes the probabilistic structure of DDPMs and bounds their sampling error.
problem Understanding and controlling errors in discrete-time DDPMs.
method Structural analysis of score functions, Schrödinger's problem, and FBSDEs.
result Explicit upper bound for total variation distance between sampling and target distributions.
Develops MIS, a probabilistic model for multi-industry classification.
problem GICS's limitation of assigning each firm to exactly one industry, especially for diversified firms.
method Topic modeling to probabilistically assign firms to multiple industries based on business descriptions.
result Demonstrates MIS's ability to flexibly assign firms to multiple industries with relevance probabilities.
Probabilistic graphical models combine the graph theory and probability theory to give a multivariate statistical modeling. They provide a unified description of uncertainty using probability and complexity using the graphical model. Especially, graphical models provide the following several useful properties: - Graphi…
Successful human-robot cooperation hinges on each agent's ability to process and exchange information about the shared environment and the task at hand. Human communication is primarily based on symbolic abstractions of object properties, rather than precise quantitative measures. A comprehensive robotic framework thus…
In this paper we establish a constructive method in order to show global existence and regularity for a class of degenerate parabolic Cauchy problems which satisfy a weak Hoermander condition on a subset of the domain where the data are measurable and which have regular data on the complementary set of the domain. This…
While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical interest is computationally infeasible or impractical. In complex systems, with lim…
ART automates synthetic biology design with machine learning.
problem Long development times in synthetic biology due to ad-hoc engineering.
method Machine learning and probabilistic modeling for systematic design.
result ART provides optimized strain recommendations and production levels.
Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltz…
Implicit models, latent compression, intrinsic biases, and cheap lunches in community detectioncs.SI
New method compares community detection algorithms without ground truth.
problem Comparing community detection algorithms without ground truth.
method Integrates any objective with its implicit generative model.
result More expressive methods consistently outperform others.
This paper presents an analytical treatment of economic systems with an arbitrary number of agents that keeps track of the systems' interactions and agents' complexity. This formalism does not seek to aggregate agents. It rather replaces the standard optimization approach by a probabilistic description of both the enti…
Many real-world problems encountered in several disciplines deal with the modeling of time-series containing different underlying dynamical regimes, for which probabilistic approaches are very often employed. In this paper we describe several such approaches in the common framework of graphical models. We give a unifie…
Robotics learns new skills faster by reusing past movements.
problem Learning new motor skills is time-consuming and requires exploration of a large space of motor configurations.
method Combines probabilistic movement primitives with relative entropy policy search for skill initialization and adaptation.
result Quality of learned skills improves and the number of required iterations to learn a new task can be reduced by more than 60%.
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Modeling and forecasting natural gas prices with heavy tails and conditional heteroscedasticity.
method State-space time series models under skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
result The proposed model reduces out-of-sample CRPS by 13% for Day-Ahead and 9% for Month-Ahead forecasts.
Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling them. While there are many methods for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems, exist…
The objective of this paper is to investigate how noisy and incomplete observations can be integrated in the process of building a reduced-order model. This problematic arises in many scientific domains where there exists a need for accurate low-order descriptions of highly-complex phenomena, which can not be directly …
Novel method detects faults in helicopter transmissions using healthy data only.
problem Detecting faults in rare events in helicopter transmissions.
method Probabilistic anomaly detection using Bayesian measures.
result Method achieves competitive detection performance in real-world and benchmark applications.
CDL index improves clustering validation for non-convex data.
problem Selecting clustering algorithms and hyperparameters without labeled data.
method CDL uses compactness, centers, and covariances to compute a probabilistic description length bound.
result CDL outperforms conventional CVIs on synthetic and image benchmarks.
The paper examines how updates to probabilistic models influence behavior based on evidence.
problem Understanding how updates to probabilistic models influence behavior based on evidence.
method Study of KL-regularized soft updates as Bayesian posterior updates within a single probabilistic model.
result Posterior updates determine relative incentives but not absolute rewards, which are ambiguous up to context-specific baselines.
Word embeddings generated by neural network methods such as word2vec (W2V) are well known to exhibit seemingly linear behaviour, e.g. the embeddings of analogy "woman is to queen as man is to king" approximately describe a parallelogram. This property is particularly intriguing since the embeddings are not trained to a…
A new model for Gaussian process experts tackles scalability and uncertainty issues.
problem Scalability and excessive number of experts degrade predictive performance and increase uncertainty.
method Nested partitioning scheme infers the number of components, a generalised GP framework accommodates multiple response types, and a factorised exponential family structure handles multiple input types.
result Effectiveness demonstrated on synthetic data and an Alzheimer's challenge dataset.
Probabilistic machine learning based predictive and interpretable digital twin for dynamical systemsstat.ML
Proposes a probabilistic digital twin for dynamical systems using sparse Bayesian learning.
problem Creating and updating accurate digital twins for complex dynamical systems.
method Sparse Bayesian machine learning, two approaches: input-output and output-only.
result Identifies correct perturbation terms and associated parameters in dynamical systems.
Study Kodaira dimensions on almost complex manifolds, proving integrability and structural descriptions.
problem Understanding Kodaira dimensions on almost complex manifolds.
method Using pseudoholomorphic pluricanonical maps, defining new dimensions, and applying probabilistic combinatorics.
result Almost complex structures with top Kodaira dimension are integrable, and for compact 4-manifolds, they have elliptic fibration structures.
Enhances network intrusion detection in noisy data.
problem Robustness against contaminated and noisy data inputs in network intrusion detection.
method Probabilistic Temporal Graph Network Support Vector Data Description (TGN-SVDD) model.
result Significant improvements in detection performance with synthetic noise.
Given data over variables we consider the problem of finding out whether jointly causes or whether they are all confounded by an unobserved latent variable . To do so, we take an information-theoretic approach based on Kolmogorov complexity. In a nutshell, we follow the postulate that firs…
Recurrent-DBN models dynamic relational data with interpretable latent structures.
problem Interpreting dynamic relational data with hidden structures.
method Recurrent Dirichlet Belief Network framework with hierarchical latent structures and efficient inference strategy.
result Recurrent-DBN discovers interpretable latent structures and improves link prediction.
In the context of dynamic emission tomography, the conventional processing pipeline consists of independent image reconstruction of single time frames, followed by the application of a suitable kinetic model to time activity curves (TACs) at the voxel or region-of-interest level. The relatively new field of 4D PET dire…
Finding optimal feedback controllers for nonlinear dynamic systems from data is hard. Recently, Bayesian optimization (BO) has been proposed as a powerful framework for direct controller tuning from experimental trials. For selecting the next query point and finding the global optimum, BO relies on a probabilistic desc…
The statistical description and modeling of volatility plays a prominent role in econometrics, risk management and finance. GARCH and stochastic volatility models have been extensively studied and are routinely fitted to market data, albeit providing a phenomenological description only. In contrast, the field of econop…
New meta-score EPP interprets model performance differences.
problem Lack of interpretable benchmarks for model performance.
method Elo-based Predictive Power (EPP) meta-score, logistic regression.
result EPP scores have probabilistic interpretation and can be compared between data sets.
We study several new invariants associated to a holomorphic projective structure on a Riemann surface of finite analytic type: the Lyapunov exponent of its holonomy which is of probabilistic/dynamical nature and was introduced in our previous work; the degree which measures the asymptotic covering rate of the developin…
This paper is the continuation of "Pricing with coherent risk" and deals with further applications of coherent risk measures to problems of finance. First, we study the optimization problem. Three forms of this problem are considered. Furthermore, the results obtained are applied to the optimality pricing. Again three …