In this note, we extend an evolutionary stochastic portfolio optimization framework to include probabilistic constraints. Both the stochastic programming-based modeling environment as well as the evolutionary optimization environment are ideally suited for an integration of various types of probabilistic constraints. W…
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48 results for “probabilistic constraints”
Incorporating constraints is a major concern in probabilistic machine learning. A wide variety of problems require predictions to be integrated with reasoning about constraints, from modelling routes on maps to approving loan predictions. In the former, we may require the prediction model to respect the presence of phy…
Develops a new method for optimizing with uncertain data.
problem Uncertainty in real-world optimization problems.
method Combines chance constraints and constraint learning for mixed-integer linear optimization.
result Data-driven solution for setting probabilistic bounds on learned constraints.
Solves optimal control with state constraints using probabilistic methods.
problem Optimal control of diffusion processes within state constraints.
method Probabilistic representation and optimal control under mild conditions.
result Explicit formulae for optimally controlled dynamics in examples.
Method estimates posterior model for boundary value problems with uncertain constraints.
problem Estimating posterior probability model for stochastic boundary value problems with uncertain constraints.
method Probabilistic learning inference using Kullback-Leibler divergence and MCMC.
result Method successfully estimates posterior probability measure with constraints.
Enforces physical constraints in GP regression models.
problem Unbounded GP models can produce infeasible values.
method Enforces nonnegativity constraints probabilistically.
result Reduces model variance and enforces physical bounds.
A new GP method enforces physical constraints in probabilistic terms.
problem Unbounded model in GP regression leading to infeasible values.
method Introduces a new GP method using QHMC to enforce soft inequality and monotonicity constraints.
result Improves accuracy and reduces variance in GP model.
Solves probabilistic Lambert problem connecting astrodynamics with optimal mass transport.
problem Determining spacecraft velocity for given positions with probabilistic constraints.
method Generalized optimal mass transport (OMT) and Schrödinger bridge (SBP) connections.
result Existence and uniqueness of solution for probabilistic Lambert problem.
Incorporating domain knowledge into the modeling process is an effective way to improve learning accuracy. However, as it is provided by humans, domain knowledge can only be specified with some degree of uncertainty. We propose to explicitly model such uncertainty through probabilistic constraints over the parameter sp…
We introduce a novel generative formulation of deep probabilistic models implementing "soft" constraints on their function dynamics. In particular, we develop a flexible methodological framework where the modeled functions and derivatives of a given order are subject to inequality or equality constraints. We then chara…
We provide a dynamic programming principle for stochastic optimal control problems with expectation constraints. A weak formulation, using test functions and a probabilistic relaxation of the constraint, avoids restrictions related to a measurable selection but still implies the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the …
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
New method controls renewable energy storage and portfolio selection with probabilistic constraints.
problem Control of McKean-Vlasov dynamics with probabilistic state constraints.
method Level-set approach for exact penalization and running maximum/integral cost.
result Extension to mean-field setting with machine learning algorithm.
Probabilistic grammars improve equation discovery from data.
problem Discovering scientific laws from data using equations.
method Proposed probabilistic context-free grammars to encode soft constraints and a Monte-Carlo algorithm.
result Probabilistic grammars lead to more efficient equation discovery.
In a recent paper, the authors proposed a general methodology for probabilistic learning on manifolds. The method was used to generate numerical samples that are statistically consistent with an existing dataset construed as a realization from a non-Gaussian random vector. The manifold structure is learned using diffus…
Incorporating physical constraints in a deep probabilistic machine learning framework for coarse-graining dynamical systemsphysics.comp-ph
Data-based discovery of effective, coarse-grained (CG) models of high-dimensional dynamical systems presents a unique challenge in computational physics and particularly in the context of multiscale problems. The present paper offers a data-based, probablistic perspective that enables the quantification of predictive u…
The paper studies batch decompositions of random datasets with probabilistic similarity constraints.
problem Understanding how to optimally split large datasets into batches for better model learning.
method Assumes independent data points from a space, defines similarity, and uses probabilistic and martingale methods to find bounds on batch sizes.
result Demonstrates an inherent tradeoff between relaxing similarity constraints and batch size, and provides bounds for maximum similarity subsets.
LinConTS improves regret and constraint violations in probabilistic linearly constrained bandits.
problem Maximizing cumulative reward under probabilistic linear constraints.
method LinConTS, a Thompson Sampling-based algorithm for bandits with linear constraints.
result LinConTS achieves O(log T) regret and constraint violations for suboptimal arms.
Efficiently updates beliefs with virtual observations.
problem Incremental belief updates in Bayesian models.
method Constructs weighted virtual observations to match posterior.
result Reconstructed posterior matches original posterior closely.
This work interprets SFA through variational inference, relaxing linearity constraints.
problem Recover non-linear SFA from variational inference.
method Probabilistic interpretation of SFA through variational inference, relaxing linearity constraints.
result Reinterprets SFA as a variational framework, allowing slowness as a regularizer to reconstruction loss.
HyperFair integrates fairness in recommender systems using probabilistic soft logic.
problem Ensuring fairness in recommender systems across diverse domains.
method Soft fairness constraints integrated as regularization in a joint inference objective function.
result HyperFair improves fairness of predictions from black-box models and hybrid systems.
We present sparse topical coding (STC), a non-probabilistic formulation of topic models for discovering latent representations of large collections of data. Unlike probabilistic topic models, STC relaxes the normalization constraint of admixture proportions and the constraint of defining a normalized likelihood functio…
This paper proposes an Adaptive Stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for stable linear time-invariant systems in the presence of bounded disturbances. We consider multi-input, multi-output systems that can be expressed by a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model. The parameters of the FIR model corresponding…
A new Bayesian framework simplifies stochastic optimization by focusing on key parameters.
problem Bayesian methods struggle with complex structural constraints.
method Minimalist Bayesian framework that eliminates nuisance parameters via profile likelihood.
result Near-optimal regret guarantees for multi-armed bandits and convex optimization.
Graphs are fundamental mathematical structures used in various fields to represent data, signals and processes. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for learning/estimating graphs from data. The proposed framework includes (i) formulation of various graph learning problems, (ii) their probabilistic interpretatio…
This review explores probabilistic forecasting methods in evolving energy markets.
problem Volatility and uncertainty in renewable energy markets require probabilistic forecasting for risk assessment.
method Traces evolution from Bayesian and distribution-based approaches to conformal prediction.
result Probabilistic forecasting offers a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and market participation.
Iterative method learns unknown constraints for MPC control.
problem Learning to satisfy unknown polyhedral state constraints in iterative MPC.
method Collects and improves estimates of unknown constraints using collected data, designs an MPC controller to satisfy the estimated constraints.
result Robust and probabilistic guarantees of constraint satisfaction as a function of task iterations.
A lending scheme for a system of interconnected banks with probabilistic constraints of failureq-fin.MF
We derive a closed form solution for an optimal control problem related to an interbank lending schemes subject to terminal probability constraints on the failure of banks which are interconnected through a financial network. The derived solution applies to a real banks network by obtaining a general solution when the …
Federated Learning with L0 constraint improves sparsity and performance.
problem Inherent sparsity in data and models leads to dense models with poor generalizability.
method L0 constraint on model density achieved through probabilistic gates and federated stochastic gradient descent.
result Achieves target sparsity (rho) in FL with minimal loss in statistical performance.
Physics-aware, deep probabilistic modeling of multiscale dynamics in the Small Data regimephysics.comp-ph
The paper develops a physics-aware method for modeling multiscale dynamics with reduced data.
problem Discovering effective, lower-dimensional models for high-dimensional dynamical systems.
method Probabilistic deep neural networks incorporating physical constraints.
result The method reduces the need for extensive multiscale simulations (Small Data regime).
Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.
problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
We solve a class of control problems with fuel constraint by means of the log-Laplace transforms of -functionals of Dawson-Watanabe superprocesses. This solution is related to the superprocess solution of quasilinear parabolic PDEs with singular terminal condition. For the probabilistic verification proof, we develo…
A new error bound improves safety in Bayesian optimization.
problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models.
method Introducing a novel error bound using Wiener kernel regression for Gaussian processes and noise.
result The new error bound provides larger safety regions than previous methods.
We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any graphical model, can be optimized with respect to an arbitrary subset of its sampled …
Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a group level scalable probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component pruning using automa…
SAMBA improves safe reinforcement learning with active exploration metrics.
problem Safe reinforcement learning in dynamic systems.
method Combines probabilistic modelling, information theory, and statistics. Uses novel metrics for out-of-sample Gaussian process evaluation.
result Orders of magnitude reduction in samples and violations compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Adversarial observations in probabilistic State-Space Models for robust Reinforcement Learningstat.ML
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
The paper proposes a probabilistic autoencoder for discovering causal directions between variables.
problem Finding the causal direction between two associated variables.
method Building an autoencoder of the joint distribution and maximizing its estimation capacity relative to marginal distributions.
result The higher estimation capacity is consistent with the unconstrained choice of a distribution representing the cause, while the lower capacity reflects the constraints imposed by the mechanism on the distribution of the effect.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
Trial-and-error based reinforcement learning (RL) has seen rapid advancements in recent times, especially with the advent of deep neural networks. However, the majority of autonomous RL algorithms require a large number of interactions with the environment. A large number of interactions may be impractical in many real…
We provide a probabilistic solution of a not necessarily Markovian control problem with a state constraint by means of a Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (BSDE). The novelty of our solution approach is that the BSDE possesses a singular terminal condition. We prove that a solution of the BSDE exists, thus part…
New method provides scalable safety guarantees for RL agents.
problem Safe reinforcement learning in real-life scenarios.
method State-augmentation and shield design for probabilistic avoidance.
result Strict formal safety guarantees for RL agents, scalable and practical.
In recent years, a myriad of advanced results have been reported in the community of imitation learning, ranging from parametric to non-parametric, probabilistic to non-probabilistic and Bayesian to frequentist approaches. Meanwhile, ample applications (e.g., grasping tasks and human-robot collaborations) further show …
ARO overfits by making constraints dependent on uncertainty, leading to brittleness.
problem ARO's adaptive policies become brittle when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set.
method Assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes with probabilistic guarantees.
result Regularization through specific uncertainty set sizes ensures stability and flexibility.
A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.
problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.
New probabilistic method speeds up calibration of complex models.
problem Calibrating large-scale differential equation models efficiently.
method Probabilistic approach to computing local sensitivities.
result Significantly reduces computational effort for iterative gradient-based calibration.
The broad set of deep generative models (DGMs) has achieved remarkable advances. However, it is often difficult to incorporate rich structured domain knowledge with the end-to-end DGMs. Posterior regularization (PR) offers a principled framework to impose structured constraints on probabilistic models, but has limited …