A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling HFT interactions reveals market instability.
Investment strategies in financial markets can lead to instability due to market impacts.
Crowded trades cluster investors, affecting stock price stability.
The square root of Fredholm determinants causes numerical instabilities in option pricing models.
Study uses DNM theory to detect early warning signals of market instability.
Study on market instability in multi-agent trading with price impact and transaction costs.
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions pr…
This paper examines how investors mislearn factor risk premia under structural breaks in a misspecified Bayesian framework.
We take prior-to-crash market prices (NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average) as a signal, a function of time, we project these discrete values onto a vertical axis, thus obtaining a Cantordust. We study said cantordust with the tools of multifractal analysis, obtaining spectra by definition and by lagrangian coordinates…
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual unpredictable fluctuations. This classical view of markets absorbing information a…
This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of time series segmentation on the Japanese stock prices listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange during the period from 4 January 2000 to 30 January 2012. A recursive segmentation procedure is used under the assumption of a Gaussian mixture. The daily number …
Price fluctuations in financial markets can be characterized by Lévy's stable distribution, which is supported by the generalized central limit system. When the stable parameters were estimated from four different stock markets in long term, they similarly indicated an unique value. On the other hand, when analyzed in …
Graph auto-encoders predict stock market instability by measuring graph structure changes.
Model predicts stationary equilibrium in investment decisions of firms in fluctuating markets.
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To investigate this surprising feature, here we propose using the mean first hitting…
Study examines pricing strategies in competitive supply chains with discrete prices.
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This captures the fact that correlations determine the optimal portfolio but are affe…
A hybrid framework uses machine learning to price options faster and more accurately.
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither …
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random markets using techniques borrowed from statistical mechanics of disordered systems. …
We investigate the possible drawbacks of employing the standard Pearson estimator to measure correlation coefficients between financial stocks in the presence of non-stationary behavior, and we provide empirical evidence against the well-established common knowledge that using longer price time series provides better, …
Empirical data reveals that the liquidity flow into the order book (depositions, cancellations andmarket orders) is influenced by past price changes. In particular, we show that liquidity tends todecrease with the amplitude of past volatility and price trends. Such a feedback mechanism inturn increases the volatility, …
Biondi et al. (2012) develop an analytical model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, capable to capture important stylized facts. These latter properties prove to be sensitive to regulatory regimes for fundamental information provision, as well as to market confidence c…
In two previous papers the author developed a second-order price adjustment (tâtonnement) process. This paper extends the approach to include both quantity and price adjustments. We demonstrate three results: a analogue to physical energy, called "activity" arises naturally in the model, and is not conserved in general…
Network geometry measures predict market instability.
Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a method for extracting slowly varying features from a quickly varying multidimensional signal. An open source Matlab-implementation sfa-tk makes SFA easily useable. We show here that under certain circumstances, namely when the covariance matrix of the nonlinearly expanded data does not …
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
We improve current instability-based methods for the selection of the number of clusters in cluster analysis by developing a normalized cluster instability measure that corrects for the distribution of cluster sizes, a previously unaccounted driver of cluster instability. We show that our normalized instability mea…
Persistence norms explain financial uncertainty better than volatility.
Peters (2011a) defined an optimal leverage which maximizes the time-average growth rate of an investment held at constant leverage. It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment in the market portfolio cannot yield long-term outperformance. This places a str…
The paper uses a novel framework to learn option prices by imitating principal investor behavior.
New proof of instability for certain Einstein metrics.
Study stability and instability of Ricci-flat metrics under generalized Ricci flow.
Some exotic compact objects possess evanescent ergosurfaces: timelike submanifolds on which a Killing vector field, which is timelike everywhere else, becomes null. We show that any manifold possessing an evanescent ergosurface but no event horizon exhibits a linear instability of a peculiar kind: either there are solu…
Here we develop an option pricing method based on Legendre series expansion of the density function. The key insight, relying on the close relation of the characteristic function with the series coefficients, allows to recover the density function rapidly and accurately. Based on this representation for the density fun…
Paper proposes a new stock price forecasting method using DRAGAN and feature matching.
Interval Neural Networks detect instabilities in image reconstructions.
Note on instabilities in super-time-stepping methods for Heston model.
The paper explores how word embeddings affect the stability of downstream NLP models.
In this paper we explain the wild fluctuations of financial prices from the intrinsic amplifying feedback of speculative supply and demand. Formally, we show that an asset return follows a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input, which is well-known to be a generic power-law generating process, and which coul…
We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey and consumers as predators provides the required instability, but its natural d…
Binary perceptron's instability linked to replica symmetry breaking.
A central area of research in nonlinear science is the study of instabilities that drive the emergence of extreme events. Unfortunately, experimental techniques for measuring such phenomena often provide only partial characterization. For example, real-time studies of instabilities in nonlinear fibre optics frequently …
High-speed computerized trading, often called "high-frequency trading" (HFT), has increased dramatically in financial markets over the last decade. In the US and Europe, it now accounts for nearly one-half of all trades. Although evidence suggests that HFT contributes to the efficiency of markets, there are concerns it…
Mathematical framework investigates fire sales amplification and stability.
Develops a geometric framework for soap film instabilities.
The study examines stability and instability of Poincaré-Einstein metrics using Ricci flow.
Study shows instability of naked singularities in perfect fluid models.