We quantify predictive uncertainty using the posterior predictive variance.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in predictive models.
method Using the law of total variance, we generate expansions for the posterior predictive variance.
result Identify the main contributors to prediction intervals and quantify term-wise uncertainty.
MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
problem MFVI underestimates posterior variance
method Analyzing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression
result MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
A simple method treats heteroscedastic variance variatively, improving model calibration and sample quality.
problem Brittle optimization impacts model likelihoods for mean and variance estimation.
method Proposes a variational approach to heteroscedastic variance, improving predictive mean and variance calibration.
result The proposed method significantly improves parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.
The paper analyzes the bias-variance tradeoff for Bregman divergences.
problem Understanding the bias-variance tradeoff for Bregman divergences.
method Analyzes the bias-variance tradeoff through operations in dual space.
result Derives several results including a generalized law of total variance and ensembling operations.
Develops a multilevel Monte Carlo framework with dropout for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Efficiently quantify uncertainty in complex models using dropout.
method Integrates multilevel Monte Carlo with Monte Carlo dropout, creating coupled estimators to reduce variance.
result Demonstrates significant variance reduction and efficiency gains over single-level Monte Carlo dropout.
Integrates prediction models into portfolio optimization for better asset allocation.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization ignores prediction models, leading to suboptimal decisions.
method Developed a framework that combines regression prediction with mean-variance optimization, providing analytical solutions and neural-network-based optimization for inequality constraints.
result Demonstrated through simulations that integrating prediction models improves portfolio performance.
The paper explores trade-offs between regret and variance in online learning algorithms.
problem Investigating the trade-offs between regret and variance in online learning.
method Analysis of the Exponentially Weighted Average (EWA) algorithm and its variants.
result A variant of EWA either achieves negative regret or guarantees a logarithmic bound on both variance and regret.
Unified approach combines prediction-powered inference and variance reduction for semi-supervised optimization.
problem Scarcity of labeled data in semi-supervised optimization.
method PPI-SVRG, combining PPI and SVRG methods.
result Unified convergence bound with improved performance under label scarcity.
Study on fluctuations in neural network kernels and predictions, focusing on finite width effects.
problem Characterizing fluctuations in finite width neural networks.
method Dynamical mean field theory analysis of wide but finite feature learning neural networks.
result Fluctuations in kernels and predictions are dynamically coupled, leading to reduced variance in feature learning regimes.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
New model optimizes portfolios over multiple periods using predictive control.
problem Optimizing multi-period portfolios with risk and variance objectives.
method Model Predictive Control with Mean-Variance and Risk Parity.
result 30x faster and more robust solutions compared to single period models.
This work introduces a bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, improving uncertainty estimation in predictive models.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for predictions in safety-critical applications, especially under domain drift.
method Developed a general bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, introducing the Bregman Information as the variance term.
result The decomposition provides novel formulations for different predictive tasks, including classification and model ensembles.
New method uses machine learning to improve statistical inference.
problem Performing inference on conditional functionals with scarce labeled data.
method Combines localization with prediction-based variance reduction.
result Valid and sharp confidence intervals for conditional functionals.
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally independent increments and symmetric jump measure, then its discrete realized variance…
Machine learning reduces variance in online experiment results.
problem Reducing variance in randomized controlled trials.
method Machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator (MLRATE).
result MLRATE reduces estimator variance by over 70% in A/A tests.
Develops abstention procedure for nonparametric regression via variance testing.
problem Prediction with selective abstention in error-critical machine learning.
method Nonparametric heteroskedastic regression via testing hypothesis on conditional variance.
result Non-asymptotic risk bounds and convergence regimes for the estimator.
We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between predictive uncertainty of networks and variance of the prediction scores obtained by …
New metric reduces arbitrariness in fair binary classification predictions.
problem Variance in predictions leads to arbitrary decisions in fair classification.
method Developed a self-consistency metric and an abstention algorithm.
result Fair binary classification is often close to fair due to variance, not interventions.
We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to make unbiased weight updates to a variance network. Further, we formulate a heurist…
New method optimizes PCA for better prediction and variance.
problem Improve PCA for better prediction and variance.
method Jointly optimize prediction error and variance explained.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in both prediction and variance.
VGE provides a practical approach to uncertainty estimation in ensemble models.
problem Uncertainty estimation in ensemble models using additive decomposition breaks down.
method Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE) introduces a differentiable framework with a signal-to-noise gate.
result VGE provides a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score and Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer.
We study the variance of the REINFORCE policy gradient estimator in environments with continuous state and action spaces, linear dynamics, quadratic cost, and Gaussian noise. These simple environments allow us to derive bounds on the estimator variance in terms of the environment and noise parameters. We compare the pr…
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
This study optimizes neural networks for doubly robust ATE estimation to balance bias and variance.
problem Balancing bias and variance in doubly robust estimators with neural networks.
method Investigates two neural network architectures and their hyperparameters in the presence of confounders and IVs.
result Optimal hyperparameters for neural networks reduce bias-variance tradeoff for ATE estimators.
This study investigates how Decision-Focused Learning improves stock return predictions for better portfolio optimization.
problem The challenge of precise expected returns estimation in mean-variance optimization.
method Investigates Decision-Focused Learning (DFL) to adjust stock return prediction models for MVO.
result DFL tilts prediction errors by the inverse covariance matrix, leading to systematic prediction biases in portfolio optimization.
A new method reduces data valuation variance for more trustworthy data trading.
problem Data valuation and trustworthy data trading in algorithmic prediction.
method Variance reduced Shapley value estimation using stratified sampling.
result VRDS method reduces estimation variance and improves data marketplace development.
Proposes a new method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks for high-risk applications.
method Intuitive framework based on signal-to-noise ratio and variance-gated measure.
result Demonstrates a collapse in diversity of committee machines.
Estimates uncertainty in bounding box regression for object detection.
problem Reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks.
method Training variance networks with energy score as a proper scoring rule.
result Energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions.
Transformer-based models overfit financial time series data, leading to increased prediction variance.
problem Forecast collapse of transformer-based models under squared loss in financial time series.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data.
result Increased model expressivity in Transformer-based models leads to spurious fluctuations without reducing bias, resulting in higher prediction variance.
Study ridge regression for non-identically distributed data with varying variances.
problem Investigate high-dimensional regression with non-identical data variance.
method Propose a random effect model and use tools from random matrix theory.
result Highlight the double descent phenomenon in high-dimensional regression for certain variance profiles.
Paper presents a method to reduce prediction variance of DNNs for unknown systems.
problem Uncertainty in DNN predictions due to high variance.
method Ensemble averaging of multiple DNN models trained independently.
result Reduction in variance of DNN predictions, improving reliability.
Paper tackles bias-variance trade-off in missing data, proposing a dynamic framework.
problem Missing data in practical applications deteriorates model performance.
method Develops a fine-grained dynamic learning framework to jointly optimize bias and variance.
result Theoretical and empirical validation of joint bias-variance optimization.
VR-ConfTr reduces noise in CP training, leading to more stable and efficient model performance.
problem Improving the efficiency and stability of conformal prediction during model training.
method Variance-reduced conformal training (VR-ConfTr) that incorporates variance reduction in gradient estimation.
result VR-ConfTr achieves faster convergence and smaller prediction sets compared to existing methods.
In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional entropy of the data point to be estimated or predicted given the side information or p…
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function parameters are usually learned using maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitt…
Dynamic Boltzmann Machine (DyBM) has been shown highly efficient to predict time-series data. Gaussian DyBM is a DyBM that assumes the predicted data is generated by a Gaussian distribution whose first-order moment (mean) dynamically changes over time but its second-order moment (variance) is fixed. However, in many fi…
MEVA aggregates model predictions to improve accuracy without needing model details.
problem Improving model accuracy by combining multiple models.
method Non-intrusive, data-driven framework that treats models as black boxes and optimizes aggregation methods.
result MVA outperforms MEA in estimating aggregated predictions, enhancing robustness and accuracy.
This paper optimizes predicting support and resistance levels in financial markets.
problem Optimizing prediction of resistance and support levels in financial markets.
method Assuming a constant elasticity of variance process, the paper derives optimal trading boundaries using the aspiration level hypothesis.
result Optimal trading boundaries serve as predictors of resistance and support levels, located relative to the median interval of the hidden aspiration level.
The paper examines prediction and estimation risks of ridgeless least squares under general error assumptions.
problem Prediction and estimation risks of ridgeless least squares under realistic error structures.
method Analysis of prediction and estimation risks under general regression error assumptions, including clustered or serial dependence.
result The benefits of overparameterization extend to time series, panel, and grouped data.
Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine …
Introduces TPV to analyze model robustness without labels.
problem Analyzing post-training robustness of machine learning models.
method Parameter perturbations and test prediction variance (TPV) as a unifying framework.
result TPV connects various perturbations under a single lens, providing insights into model stability.
The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.
problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.
Optimal estimator derived for partially observable LTI systems.
problem Optimal estimator for partially observable LTI systems.
method State-space representation for derivation of optimal estimator.
result Derivation of minimum error variance estimator for partially observable LTI systems.
Generalizes bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
problem No specific problem stated; generalization of bias-variance for Bregman divergences.
method Provided a generalization of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
result A clear, standalone derivation of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.
problem Adaptive experiments require a fixed horizon for ATE estimation, but propensities can change.
method The method uses self-normalized martingale limit theory to estimate ATE.
result The Studentized statistic is asymptotically N(0,1) at the prespecified horizon.
Study improves forecast accuracy of daily volatility to enhance portfolio performance.
problem Improving predictability of realized variance from market views.
method High-dimensional machine learning models and low-dimensional factor models used to forecast firm-level volatility.
result Marginal improvements in forecast error lead to significant gains in portfolio performance.