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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for predictive state representations

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precludi…

2017-09-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Unsupervised representation learning has succeeded with excellent results in many applications. It is an especially powerful tool to learn a good representation of environments with partial or noisy observations. In partially observable domains it is important for the representation to encode a belief state, a sufficie…

2018-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce Recurrent Predictive State Policy (RPSP) networks, a recurrent architecture that brings insights from predictive state representations to reinforcement learning in partially observable environments. Predictive state policy networks consist of a recursive filter, which keeps track of a belief about the stat…

2018-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Predictive State Representations (PSRs) are an expressive class of models for controlled stochastic processes. PSRs represent state as a set of predictions of future observable events. Because PSRs are defined entirely in terms of observable data, statistically consistent estimates of PSR parameters can be learned effi…

2013-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Self-Predictive Representations improves data-efficient reinforcement learning from limited interaction.

problem Efficient reinforcement learning from limited data.
method Train agents to predict future latent state representations using self-supervised objectives.
result Achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari with 100k steps of interaction, 55% improvement over previous state-of-the-art.

Study learns state representations from observations for control, proving guarantees.

problem Learning state representations from high-dimensional observations for control.
method Cost-driven approach, learning latent state model to predict costs.
result Proves finite-sample guarantees for near-optimal state representation and controller.

Study cost-driven state representation learning for control from partial observations.

problem Learning state representation for control from partial and high-dimensional observations.
method Cost-driven state representation learning via predicting cumulative costs.
result Established finite-sample guarantees for near-optimal representation and controller.

Model-based reinforcement learning methods typically learn models for high-dimensional state spaces by aiming to reconstruct and predict the original observations. However, drawing inspiration from model-free reinforcement learning, we propose learning a latent dynamics model directly from rewards. In this work, we int…

2019-12-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Exploration is an extremely challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially in high dimensional state and action spaces and when only sparse rewards are available. Effective representations can indicate which components of the state are task relevant and thus reduce the dimensionality of the space to explore.…

2019-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. Most existing methods mainly model the feature-CTR relationship and suffer from the data sparsity issue. In this paper, we propose DeepMCP, which models other types of relationships in order to learn more informative and statistically…

2019-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for estimating uncertainty in deep neural networks.

problem Challenges in uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks, especially with increased complexity.
method Decompose tasks into representation learning and state space model for uncertainty estimation.
result The proposed method can estimate predictive distributions on top of existing neural networks.

Self-supervised reward prediction improves RL in sparse reward settings.

problem Data efficiency and sparse reward signals in reinforcement learning.
method Learning a state representation for reward prediction and using it to shape rewards.
result Self-supervised reward prediction enhances RL algorithms in single-goal environments.

Method infers causal structure from system behaviors using RKHS and kernel εε-machines.

problem Discovering causal structure in systems with varying external and measurement noise.
method Combines causal states and RKHS for efficient representation and inference of causal structure.
result Robustly estimates causal structure in high-dimensional data with varying noise.

Sequential data often originates from diverse domains across which statistical regularities and domain specifics exist. To specifically learn cross-domain sequence representations, we introduce disentangled state space models (DSSM) -- a class of SSM in which domain-invariant state dynamics is explicitly disentangled f…

2019-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural Physicist learns physical dynamics from images.

problem Learning meaningful physical state representations and accurate state transitions from image sequences.
method Neural Physicist uses VAE for state extraction, NP for parameters, and SSM for dynamics.
result Achieves long-term predictions and identifies system degrees of freedom.

End-to-end learnable network for safer self-driving with interpretable intermediate representations.

problem Safe motion planning for self-driving vehicles.
method Differentiable semantic occupancy representation for cost calculation in motion planning.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art planners in imitating human behaviors and producing safer trajectories.

Reinforcement learning algorithms struggle when the reward signal is very sparse. In these cases, naive random exploration methods essentially rely on a random walk to stumble onto a rewarding state. Recent works utilize intrinsic motivation to guide the exploration via generative models, predictive forward models, or …

2018-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

New insights into state representations in RL help design better learning rules.

problem Lack of automatic feature learning in RL for large or continuous state spaces.
method Bootstrapping methods and theoretical analysis of temporal difference learning.
result State representations differ from other auxiliary-task-based approaches.

Prediction of toxicity levels of chemical compounds is an important issue in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling. Although toxicity prediction has achieved significant progress in recent times through deep learning, prediction accuracy levels obtained by even very recent methods are not yet ver…

2019-07-19abs ↗pdf ↗

KINet learns object interactions without supervision for robotic pushing.

problem Lack of supervised data for object-centric forward prediction.
method End-to-end unsupervised framework using keypoint representation and contrastive estimation.
result Automatically generalizes to unseen scenarios and accurately predicts future states.

Improved AutoDML estimator for causal inference using outcome-adapted shared covariate representation.

problem Efficiency in estimating treatment or policy effects in causal inference.
method Outcome-adapted AutoDML estimator that uses a shared covariate representation that is predictive of the outcome but not the Riesz representer.
result Outcome-adapted AutoDML estimator is asymptotically more efficient than baseline AutoDML.

A popular approach for predicting the future of dynamical systems involves mapping them into a lower-dimensional "latent space" where prediction is easier. We show that the information-theoretically optimal approach uses different mappings for present and future, in contrast to state-of-the-art machine-learning approac…

2019-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores how AI trading agents' similar information representation can cause financial market instability.

problem Systemic instability in AI-dominated financial markets due to similar information representation.
method Structural multi-agent market model with two-layer decision architecture for AI agents.
result Representation homogeneity can lead to systemic instability in financial markets.

A method removes treatment-covariate dependence for counterfactual prediction without adversarial training.

problem Counterfactual prediction under assignment bias.
method Information-theoretic approach learning a stochastic representation Z to minimize mutual information with outcomes.
result The method performs favorably in likelihood, counterfactual error, and policy evaluation compared to adversarial baselines.

Recently there has been a significant interest in learning disentangled representations, as they promise increased interpretability, generalization to unseen scenarios and faster learning on downstream tasks. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of different notions of disentanglement for improving the fairness…

2019-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Clinical notes are a rich source of information about patient state. However, using them to predict clinical events with machine learning models is challenging. They are very high dimensional, sparse and have complex structure. Furthermore, training data is often scarce because it is expensive to obtain reliable labels…

2017-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

GRAPE uses graph representation to handle missing data in feature imputation and label prediction.

problem Handling missing data in machine learning tasks.
method GRAPE uses a bipartite graph where observations and features are nodes, and observed feature values are edges. It formulates feature imputation as edge-level prediction and label prediction as node-level prediction, solving these with Graph Neural Networks.
result GRAPE achieves 20% lower mean absolute error for imputation and 10% lower for label prediction compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Prediction tasks over nodes and edges in networks require careful effort in engineering features used by learning algorithms. Recent research in the broader field of representation learning has led to significant progress in automating prediction by learning the features themselves. However, present feature learning ap…

2016-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for fair representation learning in machine learning.

problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models, especially when biased data representations lead to unfair predictions.
method Integrates nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction with deep learning to construct fair and informative representations, introducing a penalty term to enforce conditional independence between sensitive attributes and learned representations.
result Achieves a superior balance between fairness and utility, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines on various data structures.

This paper learns graph node representations using global context prediction.

problem Efficiently learning useful node representations from unlabeled graph data.
method Randomly selects node pairs, trains a neural net to predict contextual positions.
result Our approach outperforms many unsupervised methods and sometimes supervised ones.

Learning latent representations of nodes in graphs is an important and ubiquitous task with widespread applications such as link prediction, node classification, and graph visualization. Previous methods on graph representation learning mainly focus on static graphs, however, many real-world graphs are dynamic and evol…

2018-12-22abs ↗pdf ↗

POLAR learns efficient data acquisition policies using pretrained belief representations.

problem Challenges in learning effective policies for adaptive data acquisition.
method POLAR decouples representation learning from policy learning by leveraging pretrained predictive foundation models as belief-state encoders.
result POLAR outperforms state-of-the-art methods across diverse tasks while requiring fewer training samples.

Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.

problem Decentralized counterfactual reasoning in coupled industrial systems with private data.
method Federated causal representation learning in state-space systems.
result Proves convergence to centralized oracle and provides privacy guarantees.

This research improves dynamical systems understanding by identifying latent states and their nonlinear transitions.

problem Previous work on dynamical systems could not identify nonlinear transition dynamics, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a state-space modeling framework using variational auto-encoders to identify latent states and their nonlinear transition functions.
result Demonstrates high accuracy in recovering latent state dynamics and future prediction accuracy.

We present a new model, Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks (PSRNNs), for filtering and prediction in dynamical systems. PSRNNs draw on insights from both Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Predictive State Representations (PSRs), and inherit advantages from both types of models. Like many successful RNN archi…

2017-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗