Paper uses HGNN to predict stock types from relationships and temporal data.
problem Predicting stock types from complex market data.
method Integrates stock relationships and temporal data using HGNN.
result Effective prediction of stock types with HGNN model.
Proposes C2RM to mine cross-cryptocurrency relationships for better Bitcoin price prediction.
problem Limited consideration of historical relationships and interactions between cryptocurrencies for Bitcoin price prediction.
method C2RM module using Dynamic Time Warping for lead-lag relationship extraction and aggregation.
result Improves existing price prediction methods by significant performance improvement.
Study on the relationship between explanations and predictions in machine learning models.
problem Understanding the relationship between explanations and predictions in machine learning models.
method Causal inference to measure treatment effect on hyperparameters and inputs.
result The relationship between explanations and predictions is far from ideal, especially in high-performing models.
Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus…
Proposes LSR-IGRU for improved stock trend prediction.
problem Challenges in stock price prediction due to complex relationships and nonlinear dynamics.
method Long short-term relationships matrix and improved GRU input for better temporal and relationship integration.
result Significantly improved accuracy in predicting stock trend changes.
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. Most existing methods mainly model the feature-CTR relationship and suffer from the data sparsity issue. In this paper, we propose DeepMCP, which models other types of relationships in order to learn more informative and statistically…
NGAT predicts long-term stock trends using graph attention networks.
problem Lack of effective corporate relationship graph comparison methods and model complexity in stock prediction.
method Developed a Node-level Graph Attention Network (NGAT) for corporate relationship graphs.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of NGAT across two datasets.
Study predicts social relationships using triadic influence from social networks.
problem Difficulty in quantifying social relationships and their dynamics.
method Real social networks of 13 schools, neural networks, high-dimensional embedding.
result Triadic influence achieves highest accuracy in predicting student relationships.
Predict stock movement by considering cross effects among stocks.
problem Challenges in predicting stock price movement due to cross effects among stocks.
method Multi-GCGRU framework combining GCN and GRU, encoding cross effects from financial domain knowledge and data-driven relationships.
result Our model outperforms other baselines in predicting stock movement.
DBNs predict cryptocurrency price directions by uncovering causal relationships.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price movements due to volatility and external factors.
method Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach to identify causal relationships among features.
result DBN significantly outperforms baseline models in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
Enhances VC startup success predictions using graph augmented time series models.
problem Challenges in predicting startup success due to limited financial data and subjective forecasts.
method Integrates inter-company relationships into time series analysis using GraphRAG.
result Significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions.
CD-RCA method identifies causal relationships in prediction errors without predefined graphs.
problem Challenges in diagnosing prediction errors due to lack of transparency in black-box models.
method Causal-Discovery-based Root-Cause Analysis (CD-RCA) method that estimates causal relationships without predefined causal graphs.
result CD-RCA outperforms heuristic attribution methods in identifying variable contributions to prediction errors.
The prediction of workers' safety behaviour can help identify vulnerable workers who intend to undertake unsafe behaviours and be useful in the design of management practices to minimise the occurrence of accidents. The latest literature has evidenced that there is within-population diversity that leads people's intend…
NURD improves model performance by distilling representations independent of nuisance variables.
problem Models trained under spurious correlations may fail on data with different nuisance-label relationships.
method Developed Nuisance-Randomized Distillation (NURD) to find representations independent of nuisance variables.
result NURD finds representations that perform better regardless of nuisance-label relationships.
New measure assesses predictive dependence between continuous variables, capturing non-functional relationships.
problem Quantifying the joint dependence between continuous random variables.
method Introduces a novel, fully non-parametric measure bounded [0,1] that assesses predictive accuracy loss.
result The measure captures a wide range of relationships, including non-functional ones, and is interpretable.
A new method for embedding temporal relationships in graphs.
problem Limited performance of existing time-aware graph embedding methods.
method Integrates temporal smoothness and task-oriented negative sampling.
result Improves performance in various tasks, especially entity/relationship/temporal scoping prediction.
New method for nonlinear Granger causality improves predictive relationships.
problem Challenges in applying Granger causality to nonlinear data.
method Permutation of covariate set, artificial neural networks, consistent variance estimation.
result Permutation method outperforms other techniques in predicting nonlinear relationships.
Recent advances in employing neural networks on graph domains helped push the state of the art in link prediction tasks, particularly in recommendation services. However, the use of temporal contextual information, often modeled as dynamic graphs that encode the evolution of user-item relationships over time, has been …
dGAP learns feature dependencies and predicts targets simultaneously.
problem Learning task-agnostic statistical dependencies and missing explicit feature dependencies.
method Jointly optimizes a neural dependency graph and target prediction loss.
result dGAP can recover correct feature dependencies and improve prediction accuracy.
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
problem Challenges in discovering robust lead-lag relationships in prediction markets due to spurious correlations.
method Two-stage approach: statistical Granger causality followed by LLM semantic re-ranking.
result LLM-based method outperforms statistical baseline, increasing win rate and reducing average loss magnitude.
TTERGM models improve social network predictions by incorporating triadic relationships.
problem Lack of models capturing triadic relationships and social learning theories in temporal network data.
method Introduced TTERGM, a generative model that includes triadic relationships and social learning theory as additional probability distributions. Parameters are estimated via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood.
result TTERGM achieves improved accuracy and fidelity compared to existing models on social network data.
Although the Lasso has been extensively studied, the relationship between its prediction performance and the correlations of the covariates is not fully understood. In this paper, we give new insights into this relationship in the context of multiple linear regression. We show, in particular, that the incorporation of …
Method predicts which high-dimensional correlation signs will change in the future.
problem Predicting which correlation matrix coefficients will change signs in high-dimensional data.
method Stability of correlation signs depends on three-by-three relationships, inspired by Heider social cohesion theory.
result The method accurately predicts the stability of correlation signs in high-dimensional data.
New framework models stock relationships and investor expectations for better financial market predictions.
problem Limited by predefined stock relationships and immediate effects, current financial market analysis methods need improvement.
method Jointly models investor expectations and automatically mines latent stock relationships.
result Annual return exceeds 10%, surpassing existing benchmarks.
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…
Locally adaptive interpretable regression improves linear regression's predictability.
problem Linear regression's predictability is limited; it lacks adaptability.
method Locally adaptive interpretable regression (LoAIR) uses neural networks to predict percentile of a Gaussian distribution for regression coefficients.
result LoAIR achieves comparable or better predictive performance than state-of-the-art baselines.
Motivation: HIV is difficult to treat because its virus mutates at a high rate and mutated viruses easily develop resistance to existing drugs. If the relationships between mutations and drug resistances can be determined from historical data, patients can be provided personalized treatment according to their own mutat…
This paper examines the relationship between Inverse Perpetual Swap contracts, a Bitcoin derivative akin to futures and the margin funding interest rates levied on BitMEX. This paper proves the Heteroskedastic nature of funding rates and goes onto establish a causal relationship between the funding rates and the Bitcoi…
CREAM models enable concept-grounded predictions and interpretability.
problem Designing models that can encode and extend prior knowledge about concept-concept and concept-task relationships.
method Proposes a flexible and efficient framework (CREAMs) that encodes arbitrary C−C and CoY relationships, incorporating a side-channel for incomplete concept sets. result CREAM models achieve competitive task performance while encouraging concept-grounded predictions, avoiding concept leakage and achieving black-box-level performance.
Neural model predicts survival outcomes and reveals feature relationships.
problem Predicting time-to-event outcomes and understanding feature relationships in clinical data.
method Survival and topic modeling combined in a neural network framework.
result Neural survival-supervised topic models achieve competitive accuracy with interpretability.
Spacetimeformer learns spatiotemporal relationships from data alone.
problem Forecasting multivariate time series with distinct spatial relationships.
method Transformers with dynamic graph connections learning interactions between space, time, and value.
result Competitive results on various time series prediction benchmarks.
Improved motion prediction for self-driving cars using trajectory sets and auxiliary losses.
problem Accurately predicting future vehicle motion for self-driving cars.
method Classification over trajectory sets with an auxiliary loss for off-road predictions and spatial-temporal relationships.
result Significant improvement in motion prediction performance on small datasets using map information.
This paper proposes a method to reveal task relationships in multi-task learning models using sparse graphs.
problem Understanding the underlying task relationships in multi-task learning models.
method Proposes a bilevel formulation of multi-task learning that induces sparse graphs.
result The method improves interpretability of multi-task learning models without sacrificing generalization performance.
Long-term prediction of multivariate time series is still an important but challenging problem. The key to solve this problem is to capture the spatial correlations at the same time, the spatio-temporal relationships at different times and the long-term dependence of the temporal relationships between different series.…
Graph convolution network based approaches have been recently used to model region-wise relationships in region-level prediction problems in urban computing. Each relationship represents a kind of spatial dependency, like region-wise distance or functional similarity. To incorporate multiple relationships into spatial …
Two ML frameworks predict antibody properties using structural data.
problem Predicting antibody properties using sequence and structural data.
method ANTIPASTI and INFUSSE models using graph representations and neural networks.
result ANTIPASTI predicts binding affinity; INFUSSE predicts residue flexibility.
FS-GCLSTM predicts stock returns by leveraging value-chain relationships.
problem Traditional time series models fail to capture complex interdependencies in modern markets.
method FS-GCLSTM integrates value-chain networks and graph convolutions to predict stock returns.
result FS-GCLSTM consistently delivers superior portfolio performance compared to traditional models.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved impressive predictive performance due to their ability to learn complex, non-linear relationships between variables. However, the inability to effectively visualize these relationships has led to DNNs being characterized as black boxes and consequently limited their application…
Paper proposes mechanism learning to reverse causal inference in ML.
problem Machine learning models learn associational, not causal, relationships.
method Causally weighted Gaussian mixture models (CW-GMMs).
result CW-GMMs can deconfound observational data for reverse causal inference.
Spatial understanding is a fundamental problem with wide-reaching real-world applications. The representation of spatial knowledge is often modeled with spatial templates, i.e., regions of acceptability of two objects under an explicit spatial relationship (e.g., "on", "below", etc.). In contrast with prior work that r…
The study explores statistical methods to interpret radiological models and identify key features.
problem Interpreting complex radiological models for clinical use.
method Exploration of statistical techniques to assess relationships between radiomic features.
result Identification of key relationships and features for improved interpretability.
New method evaluates financial graphs for stock trend forecasting.
problem Lack of dynamic stock relationship graphs and evaluation methods.
method SPNews dataset and novel evaluation methods independent of downstream tasks.
result Evaluation methods can differentiate between various financial relationship graphs.
Study finds investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with stock returns in Moroccan and Tunisian markets.
problem Investor sentiment and stock returns relationship in Moroccan and Tunisian markets.
method Used indirect measures of investor sentiment (SENT and ARMS) and Granger causality tests.
result Sentiment has a significant positive relationship with stock returns, but not the other way around.
DGC clusters data with side-information for better prediction.
problem Improving clustering strategies through better prediction performance.
method Deep Goal-Oriented Clustering (DGC) framework that clusters data using supervision and unsupervised modeling.
result Achieves prediction accuracies comparable to state-of-the-art, while learning congruent clustering strategies.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Heterosis is the improved or increased function of any biological quality in a hybrid offspring. We have studied yet the largest maize SNP dataset for traits prediction. We develop linear and non-linear models which consider relationships between different hybrids as well as other effect. Specially designed model prove…
The paper investigates causal relationships in heart failure prediction using machine learning.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between clinical variables and heart failure.
method Proposes a new computational framework for causal structure discovery (CSD) of mixed-type clinical variables for binary disease outcomes.
result Feature importance from nonlinear classifiers strongly correlates with causal strength of variables, but not differentiating cause and effect.
A critical decision point when training predictors using multiple studies is whether studies should be combined or treated separately. We compare two multi-study prediction approaches in the presence of potential heterogeneity in predictor-outcome relationships across datasets: 1) merging all of the datasets and traini…