PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
OpFlow predicts robust OD flows by learning choice potentials conditioned on spatial exposures.
problem Deep models trained on raw counts are vulnerable to distribution shift.
method OpFlow learns row-centered choice potentials and reconstructs flows by combining them with a calibrated origin scale.
result OpFlow improves robustness under environment shifts, as shown by controlled synthetic shifts and a real-world experiment.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
The development of accurate and transferable machine learning (ML) potentials for predicting molecular energetics is a challenging task. The process of data generation to train such ML potentials is a task neither well understood nor researched in detail. In this work, we present a fully automated approach for the gene…
New bounds for prediction with experts using geometric stopping.
problem Online prediction with expert advice, focusing on geometric stopping.
method Potential-based framework, explicit bounds construction.
result First explicit lower and upper bounds in geometric stopping setting.
Unified Bayesian framework predicts cryptocurrency market dynamics and volatility.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency market trends and volatility.
method Bayesian framework based on potential field theory and Gaussian Process.
result Attractors and repellers from the potential field are reliable market indicators.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
We introduce a novel class of localized atomic environment representations, based upon the Coulomb matrix. By combining these functions with the Gaussian approximation potential approach, we present LC-GAP, a new system for generating atomic potentials through machine learning (ML). Tests on the QM7, QM7b and GDB9 biom…
Predictive models are increasingly deployed for the purpose of determining access to services such as credit, insurance, and employment. Despite potential gains in productivity and efficiency, several potential problems have yet to be addressed, particularly the potential for unintentional discrimination. We present an…
The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is a hospital department where machine learning has the potential to provide valuable assistance in clinical decision making. Classical machine learning models usually only provide point-estimates and no uncertainty of predictions. In practice, uncertain predictions should be presented to …
NNs accurately predict energy eigenvalues and other physical phenomena in 1D quantum mechanics.
problem Understanding how neural networks interpret physics.
method Training NNs to predict energy eigenvalues from potentials and testing their ability to generalize.
result NNs can predict physical phenomena not learned during training, indicating a new way of understanding physics.
Proposes a novel tensor-based approach for multi-level link prediction.
problem Inferring potential links from observed networks.
method Tensor-based joint network embedding capturing pairwise and hyperlinks.
result Improves hyperlink and pairwise link prediction accuracy.
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index IS…
Framework learns inter-electronic potential for molecular dynamics.
problem Predicting time-dependent Hartree-Fock dynamics from electron density.
method Developed three models using four-index tensors, preserving symmetries.
result Model with eight-fold symmetry performs best across metrics.
We apply the potential force estimation method to artificial time series of market price produced by a deterministic dealer model. We find that dealers' feedback of linear prediction of market price based on the latest mean price changes plays the central role in the market's potential force. When markets are dominated…
New work shows FP potential monotonicity equals low-degree polynomial estimators limits.
problem Establishing a precise mathematical relationship between statistical physics and polynomial estimators limits.
method Analyzing Gaussian additive models (GAMs) to show FP potential monotonicity equals low-degree polynomial estimators limits.
result For a broad family of Gaussian additive models, the power of low-degree polynomials is equivalent to the monotonicity of the annealed FP potential.
Paper proposes a new framework for predictive optimization without training data.
problem Prediction in a new domain without training samples.
method Proposes a simple framework for predictive optimization with zero-shot domain adaptation.
result Demonstrates the potential usefulness of the proposed framework through numerical experiments.
Efficiently predicts optimal transport plans using sliced potentials.
problem Predicting optimal transport plans across multiple measure pairs efficiently.
method Regression-based and objective-based amortization strategies using sliced optimal transport potentials.
result Efficient and accurate prediction of optimal transport plans for various tasks.
Deep learning models predict postoperative complications more accurately than random forests.
problem Predicting postoperative complications to inform patient care decisions.
method Multi-task deep neural networks integrating intraoperative physiological data.
result Deep learning models improved prediction accuracy and provided interpretable risk factors.
A new method ranks and selects features without model fitting.
problem Feature importance measures algorithm-specific and need improvement.
method Integrates global sensitivity analysis with forward selection and backward elimination.
result Demonstrates clear advantage over state-of-the-art methods.
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. It…
Quantum algorithms improve stock price prediction accuracy.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy using quantum techniques.
method Extracted stock price indicators, used QA and PCA for feature selection and dimensionality reduction, trained QSVM for binary classification.
result Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM) outperformed classical models in stock price prediction accuracy.
LMM predicts healthcare costs and risks with improved accuracy.
problem Wasteful healthcare spending and inefficiencies in risk prediction.
method Generative pre-trained transformer trained on patient event sequences.
result Improves cost prediction by 14.1% and chronic conditions prediction by 1.9%.
Quantum machine learning boosts drug discovery efficiency.
problem Enhancing drug discovery through quantum computing.
method Quantum neural networks on gate-based quantum computers.
result Significant advancements in molecular property prediction and generation.
Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) hold great potential for improving traffic safety and are poised to positively affect the quality of life of millions of people. To unlock this potential one of the critical aspects of the autonomous technology is understanding and predicting future movement of vehicles surrounding the SDV.…
HAL accelerates the generation of training sets for accurate interatomic potentials.
problem Generating accurate and transferable interatomic potentials is time-consuming and requires expert input.
method HAL framework using a physically motivated sampler with a biasing term to drive high uncertainty configurations.
result HAL-generated training databases for alloys and polymers predict macroscopic properties with high accuracy.
hyperSBINN improves drug cardiosafety assessment by efficiently modeling cardiac action potentials.
problem Complexity and limited data in modeling cardiac effects of drugs.
method Combining meta-learning with SBINNs to solve parameterized cardiac action potential models.
result hyperSBINN outperforms traditional solvers in speed and accuracy for predicting APD90 values.
Machine learning predicts liquid water properties from cluster data.
problem Accuracy of bulk properties from machine-learned potentials is limited by training data.
method Local, atom-centred descriptors enable prediction of bulk properties from cluster data.
result Excellent agreement with experimental and theoretical counterparts of liquid water properties.
Dual random fields improve mineral potential predictions.
problem Limited understanding of multi-dimensional causalities and dependencies.
method Introduces dual random fields to pool response functions across the domain.
result Spatial inference and uncertainty assessment of response models and predictions.
Foundation models improve time series prediction reliability, especially with limited data.
problem Improving time series prediction reliability with limited data.
method Comparison of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) with traditional methods in conformal prediction.
result TSFMs provide more reliable conformalized prediction intervals and more stable calibration with limited data.
PriceSeer benchmarks LLMs in real-time stock prediction.
problem Evaluating LLMs' stock prediction accuracy and robustness.
method Real-time benchmark with 110 U.S. stocks, internal and external information expansion.
result LLMs perform suboptimally in long-term predictions due to fake news and specific industries.
A2I Transformer predicts atom energies from coordinates, avoiding heavy featurization.
problem Efficiently predicting atom energies from molecular coordinates with minimal featurization.
method End-to-end model using self-attention, permutation-equivariant.
result Stable predictions with significantly smaller errors than molecular dynamics simulations.
Predict real-time crash risks during hurricane evacuations using connected vehicle data.
problem Mitigate crash risks during hurricane evacuations by predicting high-risk locations.
method Used connected vehicle data to predict crash risks in real-time, considering weather and traffic features.
result Gaussian Process Boosting and Extreme Gradient Boosting models performed best, with recall of 0.91.
Machine learning can improve 2SLS first stage predictions, but nonlinear methods often introduce bias.
problem Improving the first stage of 2SLS using machine learning.
method Decomposed bias into three components, investigated through simulation.
result Nonlinear machine learning methods can introduce substantial bias in second-stage estimates.
Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential statements about potentially observable random quantities given observed data. Th…
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.
End-to-end model predicts multiagent trajectories using game theory and neural nets.
problem Predicting trajectories of interacting agents in complex scenarios.
method Hybrid neural net with game-theoretic reasoning, using implicit layers to map preferences to Nash equilibria.
result Trains an interpretable model that predicts future trajectories and transfers to decision making.
Neural optimal transport improves multivariate conformal prediction.
problem Multivariate quantile regression challenges and existing methods ignore joint distribution geometry.
method Combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization for efficient training and faster inference.
result Constructs tighter and more informative predictive regions for multivariate conformal prediction.
Improved neural network models predict molecular and material properties efficiently.
problem Training neural networks for accurate interatomic potentials is computationally expensive.
method Gaussian moment-based neural networks with improved architecture and active learning.
result The new models achieve high accuracy and reduced training times.
This paper describes recent development and test implementation of a continuous time recurrent neural network that has been configured to predict rates of change in securities. It presents outcomes in the context of popular technical analysis indicators and highlights the potential impact of continuous predictive capab…
Study finds fMRI can predict suicidal ideation, but analysis questions results.
problem Predicting suicidal ideation using fMRI data.
method Naive Bayes classifier trained on fMRI responses to words related to mortality.
result Classification accuracy of 91% for predicting suicidal ideation, but analysis calls into question the accuracy of the findings.
Enhances stock movement prediction using Higher Order Transformers for multimodal time-series data.
problem Predicting stock movements in financial markets with complex dynamics.
method Introduced Higher Order Transformers, extending self-attention and transformer architecture to capture complex market dynamics. Employed low-rank tensor decomposition and kernel attention to manage computational complexity. Integrated technical and fundamental analysis from historical prices and tweets.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of the method on the Stocknet dataset, improving stock movement prediction.
This paper reviews transfer learning for financial data predictions, highlighting its potential.
problem Accurate stock price prediction in financial time series is challenging due to noise and non-linear relationships.
method Transfer Learning applied to financial market predictions.
result Transfer Learning can improve financial prediction capability.
Model predicts activist fund targets with 78.2% accuracy.
problem Predicting activist fund targets to mitigate risks and inform investments.
method Evaluated 123 model configurations using machine learning techniques.
result Best model achieved AUC-ROC of 0.782.
Optimal transport improves multivariate prediction uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate learning tasks, especially in regression and classification.
method Introducing a novel Conformal Prediction procedure using optimal transport to handle multivariate score functions and construct flexible prediction regions.
result Ensures finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees for multivariate prediction sets.
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
Stacked conformal prediction simplifies model validation.
problem Validating stacked predictive models efficiently.
method Meta-learner at the top of a stacked ensemble for approximate marginal validity.
result The method achieves approximate marginal validity without a separate calibration sample.
The paper relaxes constraints on predictive coding models, making them more biologically plausible.
problem Neurophysiological models of predictive coding are not fully biologically plausible.
method The paper relaxes constraints on standard predictive coding algorithms by removing neurally implausible features.
result The removal of neurally implausible features does not significantly affect learning performance.