Flexible neural likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian processes improve prediction quality.
problem Improving prediction quality in multi-output Gaussian process models.
method Constructing flexible likelihoods using neural networks and applying sparse variational inference.
result Neural likelihoods can improve prediction quality compared to simpler Gaussian process models.
Proposes a method for credal prediction using relative likelihood.
problem Representing epistemic uncertainty with sets of probability distributions.
method Credal prediction based on relative likelihood and ensemble learning techniques.
result Superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance.
New techniques make fair prediction models easier to train.
problem Fairness constraints on predictive models are complex and nonlinear.
method Reparameterization and optimization techniques to simplify fairness constraints.
result Transformed complex constrained optimization into a simple optimization problem.
Proposes a deep neural network for predicting clustered time-to-event data.
problem Predicting clustered time-to-event data with subject-specific frailties.
method Deep neural network based gamma frailty model (DNN-FM) trained using negative profiled h-likelihood.
result Enhances prediction performance compared to existing methods.
Bayesian models use marginal likelihood; non-Bayesian use cross-validation, shown equivalent.
problem Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian models for evaluation.
method Showed marginal likelihood is equivalent to leave-p-out cross-validation, with log posterior predictive as scoring rule.
result Marginal likelihood and cross-validation are formally equivalent under data exchangeability.
Separable losses are inconsistent for structured prediction models.
problem Inconsistency of separable losses in structured prediction models.
method Analysis of separable negative log-likelihood losses for structured prediction.
result Separable losses are not Bayes consistent and may not predict the most probable structure.
Bayesian framework improves minority class performance in class-imbalanced data.
problem Class imbalance in predictive toxicology models.
method Weighted likelihood approach modifying likelihood function weights inversely proportional to class proportions.
result Improves balanced accuracy and sensitivity for minority class (toxic compounds).
In this paper, we study the effects of different prior and likelihood choices for Bayesian matrix factorisation, focusing on small datasets. These choices can greatly influence the predictive performance of the methods. We identify four groups of approaches: Gaussian-likelihood with real-valued priors, nonnegative prio…
The paper addresses ill-conditioning in large spatial data, proposing solutions for prediction and likelihood estimation.
problem Ill-conditioning of the kernel matrix in large spatial data sets.
method Introduction of various optimality criteria and solutions for managing large spatial data.
result Solutions for managing large spatial data, addressing ill-conditioning and improving prediction and likelihood estimation.
A new DDPM for link prediction using sub-graph likelihood estimation.
problem Link prediction in graph domains.
method Sub-graph based diffusion model with DDPMs, decomposing likelihood estimation.
result Our model achieves superior performance in link prediction across various datasets.
This work improves neural network calibration using explicit regularization.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Introducing a probabilistic calibration measure and exploring explicit regularization techniques.
result Explicit regularization improves log-likelihood and predictive uncertainty.
Maximum likelihood estimation fails to be well-posed in Gaussian process regression.
problem Establishing well-posedness of maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian process regression.
method Analyzing the conditions under which maximum likelihood estimation is not Lipschitz in the data with respect to the Hellinger distance.
result Maximum likelihood estimation is not well-posed in the noiseless data setting for any Gaussian process with a stationary covariance function whose lengthscale parameter is estimated using maximum likelihood.
New approach combines likelihood and adversarial losses for better precipitation predictions.
problem Spatially inconsistent precipitation projections from likelihood-based models.
method Fuses likelihood-based and adversarial losses for generative models.
result Improves spatial consistency in precipitation downscaling.
Optimal selective classification using likelihood ratios improves model reliability.
problem Enhancing predictive model reliability by allowing uncertain predictions.
method Neyman--Pearson lemma applied to likelihood ratios for optimal selection.
result Neyman--Pearson-informed methods outperform existing baselines under covariate shifts.
Patent lawsuits are costly and time-consuming. An ability to forecast a patent litigation and time to litigation allows companies to better allocate budget and time in managing their patent portfolios. We develop predictive models for estimating the likelihood of litigation for patents and the expected time to litigati…
Proposes a conservative LR estimator for infrequent data near a frequency threshold.
problem Overestimation of likelihood ratios for infrequent data near a frequency threshold.
method Conservative likelihood ratio estimator for frequencies slightly above a threshold.
result Improves prediction accuracy in named entity context prediction.
Paper introduces c-Glow for efficient structured output learning.
problem Intractable computation of conditional likelihood in structured prediction models.
method Conditional Glow (c-Glow) - a conditional generative flow that computes p(y|x) exactly and efficiently.
result c-Glow outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in structured prediction tasks.
A new method for experimental design focuses on predicting downstream quantities of interest.
problem Designs that maximize parameter learning may not maximize downstream quantity prediction.
method Likelihood-free goal-oriented optimal experimental design (LF-GO-OED) using ABC density ratio estimation.
result LF-GO-OED maximizes the expected information gain for downstream quantities.
Quantum ML predicts data with improved speed and accuracy.
problem Predicting data using maximum likelihood in a quantum setting.
method Quantum states embedding and minimization of quantum relative entropy.
result Unified framework for classical and quantum LLMs with performance guarantees.
The real-time crash likelihood prediction has been an important research topic. Various classifiers, such as support vector machine (SVM) and tree-based boosting algorithms, have been proposed in traffic safety studies. However, few research focuses on the missing data imputation in real-time crash likelihood predictio…
We extend Bayes' theorem for upper probabilities considering likelihood uncertainty.
problem Addressing uncertainty in likelihood for upper probability bounds.
method Generalization of Wasserman and Kadane's result, considering both prior and likelihood uncertainty.
result A sufficient condition for the upper bound to become an equality.
PresGANs improve GANs by mitigating mode collapse and enhancing log-likelihood.
problem GANs struggle with mode collapse and lack a reliable way to evaluate generalization.
method PresGANs add noise to density networks and use entropy regularization to stabilize training and capture all modes.
result PresGANs reduce the gap in predictive log-likelihood between GANs and VAEs.
Improved Gaussian process regression with tighter log marginal likelihood bounds.
problem Improving predictive performance in Gaussian process regression models.
method Lower bound on log marginal likelihood using conjugate gradients.
result Improved predictive performance compared to other conjugate gradient based approaches.
A simple method treats heteroscedastic variance variatively, improving model calibration and sample quality.
problem Brittle optimization impacts model likelihoods for mean and variance estimation.
method Proposes a variational approach to heteroscedastic variance, improving predictive mean and variance calibration.
result The proposed method significantly improves parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.
The normalized maximized likelihood (NML) provides the minimax regret solution in universal data compression, gambling, and prediction, and it plays an essential role in the minimum description length (MDL) method of statistical modeling and estimation. Here we show that the normalized maximum likelihood has a Bayes-li…
Bayesian neural networks improve likelihood-free inference efficiency.
problem Efficient parameter inference from simulation models with uncertainty.
method Bayesian neural networks for summary statistics, adaptive sampling.
result More robust and efficient posterior estimation.
The paper extends explainability methods to uncertainty-aware models, revealing feature impacts on predictive entropy and likelihood.
problem Understanding the factors contributing to uncertainty in probabilistic models.
method Adapting permutation feature importance, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots to measure feature impacts on predictive entropy and likelihood.
result Novel insights into model behaviour and feature impacts on uncertainty are obtained.
New model handles mixed data types better.
problem Handling data with different types of attributes.
method Mixed likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model with separate likelihoods for each dimension.
result Better predictive performance for real-world data with mixed attributes.
Improved Gaussian Neural Processes for efficient multi-dimensional predictions.
problem Inability to model dependencies in outputs limits CNPs and NPs applicability.
method Proposes a new approach to model output dependencies using latent variables for maximum likelihood training, scalable to 2D and 3D data.
result Proposed models show good performance in synthetic experiments.
New method resolves nonidentifiability in mixture models.
problem Nonidentifiability in marginal models of mixture models.
method Introducing an effective temperature to generalize the marginal likelihood.
result Maximization of the generalized likelihood leads to unique results.
New method for valid prediction sets in high-dimensional covariate shifts.
problem Valid prediction sets in high-dimensional covariate shifts.
method Likelihood-ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm.
result LR-QR constructs valid prediction sets with desired coverage in target domain.
DeepLR constructs confidence intervals for neural networks with asymmetric expansions.
problem Uncertainty estimation for neural network predictions.
method Likelihood-ratio-based approach for constructing asymmetric confidence intervals.
result DeepLR offers asymmetric intervals expanding in regions with limited data.
New method improves prediction accuracy for low-risk patients in healthcare.
problem Machine learning models often focus on high-risk patients, ignoring low-risk ones.
method Proposed a new log-likelihood formulation to minimize proportional rate error.
result Improved prediction accuracy for low-risk patients in EHR data.
Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response var…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
RNNs are suboptimal at compressing past sensory inputs for future prediction.
problem RNNs do not optimally compress past sensory inputs for future prediction.
method Investigated RNNs trained with maximum likelihood and found they extract unnecessary information. Injected noise into hidden states to improve performance.
result Injecting noise into RNN hidden states improves predictive information, sample quality, likelihood, and classification performance.
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
problem State inference in state-space models with computationally expensive and undefined dynamics.
method Estimate state transition dynamics using a multi-output Gaussian process and Bayesian Neural Network as a surrogate model.
result Significant improvement in accuracy for state inference and prediction in non-stationary user models.
Improves sampling speed of ARM models without losing accuracy.
problem Slow sampling from ARMs.
method Predictive sampling algorithm using ARM fixed-point iteration and learned forecasting modules.
result Significant improvements in sampling speed and efficiency.
Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of prediction accuracy. We assume only that the densities have a convex parametrization …
Surveying a new method to predict computational hardness in hypothesis testing.
problem Understanding statistical-versus-computational tradeoffs in high-dimensional inference problems.
method The low-degree method, which predicts computational hardness using the second moment of the low-degree likelihood ratio.
result Sharp low-degree lower bounds against subexponential-time algorithms for tensor PCA.
WCPS extends CPS to handle covariate shifts, providing probabilistically calibrated predictions.
problem Applying CPS to scenarios with covariate shifts.
method WCPS uses likelihood ratios between training and testing covariate distributions.
result WCPS are probabilistically calibrated under covariate shift.
Improved model-based estimation through tempered Bayes filter.
problem Improving predictive accuracy in partially-observable stochastic systems.
method Developed tempered Bayes filter combining likelihood and full posterior tempering.
result Tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance over the Bayes filter baseline.
Efficiently estimates marginal likelihood using SGAIS.
problem Estimating marginal likelihood in i.i.d. data settings.
method Stochastic Gradient Annealed Importance Sampling (SGAIS).
result Significantly faster and more accurate estimates of marginal likelihood.
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
problem Improving predictive evaluation in scenarios with different likelihoods for estimation and evaluation.
method Developed the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC) to handle weighted likelihood inference.
result PCIC is asymptotically unbiased for quasi-Bayesian generalization error in weighted inference.
StAD predicts divergence of diffusion and flow models without Jacobian computation.
problem Computing likelihood from diffusion and flow models is computationally expensive.
method Introduces StAD, a distillation method to predict divergence using Langevin-Stein operator.
result StAD predicts divergence with competitive variance and speed compared to existing methods.
CMLE reduces spurious correlations in deep models.
problem Spurious correlations in deep learning models.
method Counterfactual Maximum Likelihood Estimation (CMLE) on interventional distribution.
result CMLE outperforms regular MLE in out-of-domain generalization and spurious correlation reduction.
Maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration outperforms label shift adaptation methods.
problem Label shift adaptation in settings where class prevalence changes.
method Combining maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration, without model retraining.
result Maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration outperforms BBSL and RLLS.