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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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16.1%32.2%48.3%64.4% · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for predictive learning

Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.

problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.

Proposes active learning for meta-learning in graph node response prediction.

problem Difficulty in improving performance with meta-learning due to unbalanced observations.
method Combines graph convolutional neural networks and reinforcement learning for both prediction and node selection.
result Can predict responses and select nodes even for unseen response variables.

MetaR learns few-shot link prediction in KGs by transferring relation-specific meta info.

problem Few-shot link prediction in KGs with limited associative triples.
method MetaR framework focusing on transferring relation-specific meta information.
result MetaR achieves state-of-the-art results on few-shot link prediction benchmarks.

Bayesian learning improves reliability of molecular predictions for hit compound discovery.

problem Improving reliability of machine learning predictions for virtual screening.
method Bayesian learning algorithms applied to graph neural networks.
result Bayesian learning leads to well-calibrated predictions and higher hit compound success.

The paper uses machine learning to predict volatility from option data.

problem Improving predictability and liquidity of VIX-styled volatility indices.
method Regularized regression and Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) were tested on S&P 500 Index and its option data.
result Ridge regression and FNN improve volatility indexing with higher prediction performance and fewer options required.

Deep learning predicts stock prices using CNN and NALUs.

problem Predicting future stock prices accurately.
method Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for feature extraction and Neural Arithmetic Logic Units (NALUs) for arithmetic operations.
result Improved accuracy in predicting stock prices.

Machine learning improves RNA secondary structure prediction.

problem Stagnant performance of RNA secondary structure prediction methods.
method Machine learning, especially deep learning, is used to predict RNA secondary structures.
result Machine learning methods have improved the prediction of RNA secondary structures.

Generalizes conformal prediction to multiple learnable parameters for efficient prediction sets.

problem Learning valid and efficient prediction sets with low-capacity function classes.
method Constrained empirical risk minimization (ERM) with gradient-based optimization of differentiable surrogate losses and Lagrangians.
result Achieves approximate valid population coverage and near-optimal efficiency within class.

This paper reviews transfer learning for financial data predictions, highlighting its potential.

problem Accurate stock price prediction in financial time series is challenging due to noise and non-linear relationships.
method Transfer Learning applied to financial market predictions.
result Transfer Learning can improve financial prediction capability.

Study examines how imputation accuracy affects prediction accuracy in regression problems with missing covariates.

problem Missing covariates in regression or classification problems.
method Simulation and empirical analysis using UCI datasets and statistical inference.
result Imputation accuracy impacts prediction accuracy, especially with Machine Learning methods.

DeRisk improves credit risk prediction using deep learning.

problem Challenges in training deep neural networks with real-world financial data.
method DeRisk, an effective deep learning framework for credit risk prediction.
result DeRisk outperforms statistical learning methods in credit risk prediction.

This paper proposes a fast method for estimating input-dependent prediction intervals in Extreme Learning Machines.

problem Estimating reliable prediction intervals for Extreme Learning Machines with heteroscedastic outputs.
method A separate Extreme Learning Machine model estimates input-dependent prediction intervals using a weighted Jackknife method to correct for model uncertainty.
result The proposed method is fast, robust to heteroscedastic outputs, and handles large datasets and insufficient training data.

Quantile deep learning improves time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty in multi-step time series prediction.
method Developed a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction.
result Integrating quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without loss in accuracy.

Deep learning predicts vehicle behavior for safer autonomous driving.

problem Enhance autonomous vehicles' hazard awareness in complex environments.
method Review of deep learning-based approaches for vehicle behaviour prediction.
result Deep learning outperforms conventional methods in complex scenarios.

dGAP learns feature dependencies and predicts targets simultaneously.

problem Learning task-agnostic statistical dependencies and missing explicit feature dependencies.
method Jointly optimizes a neural dependency graph and target prediction loss.
result dGAP can recover correct feature dependencies and improve prediction accuracy.

Predictive topic models retain only relevant terms for better prediction and topic coherence.

problem Misspecification of topic models leads to poor prediction and topic coherence.
method Uses supervisory signal to select vocabulary terms improving prediction performance.
result Prediction-focused topic models learn more coherent topics while maintaining competitive predictions.

Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.

problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.

Combining Bayesian deep learning and split conformal prediction affects out-of-distribution coverage.

problem Improving out-of-distribution coverage in multiclass image classification.
method Combining Bayesian deep learning with split conformal prediction methods.
result Combining methods can reduce out-of-distribution coverage in some cases.

Unified approach for multimodal data prediction using synthetic data generation.

problem Challenges in integrating heterogeneous data types for accurate predictive performance.
method Generative Distribution Prediction (GDP) framework that uses multimodal synthetic data generation.
result Empirical validation across four tasks demonstrates versatility and effectiveness of GDP.

Reinforcement learning after next-token prediction aids in learning from diverse sequence lengths.

problem Learning from sequences of varying lengths and complexity.
method Introducing a framework to study reinforcement learning with autoregressive transformers, focusing on next-token prediction and mixture distributions of short and long sequences.
result Reinforcement learning after next-token prediction enables autoregressive transformers to generalize from long sequences, even when they are rare.

Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.

problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.