The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market behavior based on news and investor beliefs.
method A discrete-time model of heterogeneous beliefs where some agents receive noisy signals about asset fundamentals.
result Momentum and reversal in stock prices arise from investors' incorrect beliefs about signal accuracy and fundamental values.
DyHATR learns dynamic heterogeneous networks for better link prediction.
problem Learning effective representations of dynamic heterogeneous networks for link prediction.
method Hierarchical attention for heterogeneous information and temporal RNN for evolutionary patterns.
result DyHATR significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on link prediction tasks.
Proposes BGNN for tumor heterogeneity prediction using graph neural networks.
problem Tumor classification limitations and heterogeneity assessment challenges.
method Artificial data generation, tumor heterogeneity estimation, and BGNN model development.
result BGNN achieves 89.67 % 89.67\% 89.67% accuracy in predicting tumor heterogeneity. ATLAS separates invariant and transferable latent factors across diverse environments.
problem Transfer learning and robust prediction in heterogeneous environments.
method ATLAS leverages invariance principle to disentangle latent factors and uses auxiliary labels for robust prediction.
result Near-oracle performance and robust transferable prediction in new environments.
The paper proposes a method to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using pretraining strategies.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in the presence of many covariates.
method The approach leverages prognostic factors that also predict treatment effect heterogeneity, using the R-learner framework.
result The proposed method improves estimation accuracy and power for detecting treatment effect heterogeneity.
Modeling student behaviors and multiple predictions for early intervention.
problem Predicting student outcomes and interactions among multiple tasks.
method Proposes a variant of LSTM and soft-attention mechanism for heterogeneous behaviors, and co-attention mechanism for task interactions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in predicting student outcomes and interactions.
Graph attention networks improve performance on heterogeneous graphs.
problem Complex performance of GNNs on heterogeneous graphs.
method Integrating positional encodings into graph attention networks.
result Graph attention networks excel in node classification and link prediction.
HL-VAE extends VAE for heterogeneous temporal and longitudinal data.
problem Handling heterogeneous data in temporal and longitudinal datasets.
method Proposes HL-VAE, an extension of existing VAEs for temporal and longitudinal data, incorporating likelihood models for various data types.
result HL-VAE achieves competitive performance in missing value imputation and predictive accuracy.
A new framework for time series forecasting that adapts to varying patterns.
problem Forecasting multivariate time series with predictive heterogeneity.
method Validation-driven clustering framework that applies specialization based on out-of-sample predictive performance.
result Improves robustness to heavy-tailed errors and local anomalies.
New method for robust prediction valid under non-exchangeable data.
problem Non-exchangeability in data violates robustness of common CP methods.
method Introduces efficient CP approach for general non-exchangeable data.
result Produces provably valid confidence sets for non-exchangeable data.
Proposes PFWCP for multi-agent tasks with privacy and validity guarantees.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for multi-agent settings.
method Personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP) combining local density ratio weighting and weighted quantile aggregation.
result Asymptotically valid coverage guarantees for each agent in heterogeneous settings.
When faced with a supervised learning problem, we hope to have rich enough data to build a model that predicts future instances well. However, in practice, problems can exhibit predictive heterogeneity: most instances might be relatively easy to predict, while others might be predictive outliers for which a model train…
Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
problem Predicting optimal failure times in weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
method Using rational expectations to analyze and predict failure times in reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
result Different measures are optimal for predicting system failure depending on component failure distributions.
New functional ME models for predicting heterogeneous functional data.
problem Statistical analysis of heterogeneous functional data for prediction.
method Functional Mixtures-of-Experts (FME) models with Lasso-like regularization for sparsity.
result Accurate capture of complex nonlinear relationships and clustering of heterogeneous regression data.
Study shows pooling scores for conformal prediction distorts group coverage.
problem Pooling scores for conformal prediction distorts group coverage.
method Derived conservation law and lower bound, demonstrated tension between fairness definitions, quantified trade-off between policies.
result Pooling scores for conformal prediction distorts group coverage.
In online social networks people often express attitudes towards others, which forms massive sentiment links among users. Predicting the sign of sentiment links is a fundamental task in many areas such as personal advertising and public opinion analysis. Previous works mainly focus on textual sentiment classification, …
SLiCE learns contextual node embeddings for link prediction in heterogeneous networks.
problem Link prediction requires specific contextual information not captured by static node embeddings.
method Self-supervised pre-training with localized attention mechanisms.
result SLiCE significantly outperforms existing methods on link prediction tasks.
Machine learning approaches have been effective in predicting adverse outcomes in different clinical settings. These models are often developed and evaluated on datasets with heterogeneous patient populations. However, good predictive performance on the aggregate population does not imply good performance for specific …
This paper improves federated learning for industrial predictive analytics by accommodating client heterogeneity.
problem Traditional federated models assume homogeneity in degradation processes, which doesn't apply to industrial settings.
method Personalized federated prognostic model using proximal gradient descent algorithm for joint parameter estimation.
result The proposed model enhances performance and provides comprehensive failure time distributions.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
Bayesian approach clusters survival data for better risk prediction.
problem Identifying subpopulations with distinct risk profiles in survival analysis.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach in a clustered latent space.
result Consistent improvements in predictive performance and interpretability.
Scalable model learns from mixed data groups.
problem Heterogeneous data affecting predictive models and interpretability.
method Joint learning of feature distributions, regression models, and latent group labels.
result Effective in high dimensions, combining data reduction and re-weighting.
PanRep learns universal node embeddings for heterogeneous graphs.
problem Learning universal node embeddings for heterogeneous graphs.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) model with four decoders capturing different properties.
result PanRep outperforms unsupervised and supervised methods in node classification and link prediction.
Proposes a method to improve graph neural networks on heterogeneous graphs using meta-paths.
problem Improving graph neural networks on heterogeneous graphs with auxiliary tasks.
method Self-supervised auxiliary learning with meta-paths for heterogeneous graphs.
result Consistently improves link prediction and node classification on heterogeneous graphs.
Energy distance measures feature heterogeneity in federated learning.
problem Heterogeneity across data sources hinders model aggregation in federated learning.
method Introduced Taylor approximations of energy distance for efficient computation.
result Taylor approximations accurately capture feature discrepancies, improving convergence.
New algorithm optimizes decision-making for complex systems with varying parameters.
problem Optimizing decisions in systems with varying parameters and heterogeneous restlessness.
method Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach with randomized rounding for heterogeneous RMABs.
result Achieves an O ( log N 1 / N ) O(\log N\sqrt{1/N}) O ( log N 1/ N ) optimality gap in infinite time average reward problems. Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.
New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.
problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.
There are many real-world knowledge based networked systems with multi-type interacting entities that can be regarded as heterogeneous networks including human connections and biological evolutions. One of the main issues in such networks is to predict information diffusion such as shape, growth and size of social even…
The availability of a large amount of electronic health records (EHR) provides huge opportunities to improve health care service by mining these data. One important application is clinical endpoint prediction, which aims to predict whether a disease, a symptom or an abnormal lab test will happen in the future according…
Improved forecasting of suicide attempts using LSGPs for patients with little data.
problem Challenges in predicting suicide attempts due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity.
method Introduced Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity.
result LSGPs outperform baseline models, even without kernel-design, and offer new insights into patient similarity.
DFFL tackles federated learning with heterogeneous objectives and constraints.
problem Federated learning with clients having different objectives and feasible regions.
method Derived heterogeneity bounds for cost-vector distances and support-function/shape-distance terms. Lifted pointwise bounds to local-versus-federated excess-risk comparison.
result Federation is beneficial when the statistical advantage of pooling exceeds a client-specific heterogeneity penalty.
Paper adapts DML for panel data, addressing unobserved heterogeneity.
problem Estimating causal effects with panel data and unobserved heterogeneity.
method Adapting double/debiased machine learning (DML) for panel data with predictive models based on correlated random effects.
result Predictive models based on correlated random effects within DML lead to accurate coefficient estimates.
Study identifies key trades predicting market movements.
problem Predicting future market price movements.
method Optimized neural network predictor to identify influential trades.
result Trades with specific characteristics significantly impact future price predictions.
VAEM extends VAEs to handle mixed-type data heterogeneity.
problem Heterogeneous data with different types and marginal distributions.
method Two-stage training approach to handle mixed-type data.
result VAEM improves deep generative model performance on diverse tasks.
DRFLM improves federated learning by handling data heterogeneity and noise.
problem Data heterogeneity and noise in federated learning.
method Distributionally robust optimization and mixup techniques.
result Enhanced global model prediction accuracy through robust optimization and local mixup.
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that B…
A new method clusters heterogeneous subgroups for accurate causal learning.
problem Diverse causal relationships across different time spans, regions, or strategies.
method Nonlinear Causal Kernel Clustering
result Reduction in prediction error through enhanced causal learning.
In Stochastic blockmodels, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman incorporates a node degree correction to mod…
Proposes a federated transfer learning method to improve precision medicine models for underrepresented populations.
problem Underrepresentation of minorities in precision medicine research leads to underperforming risk prediction models.
method Two-way federated transfer learning strategy integrating diverse populations and healthcare institutions.
result Improves risk prediction models for underrepresented populations, reducing performance gaps.
Paper uses ensemble learning for IoT cybersecurity anomaly detection.
problem Anomaly detection in IoT data is challenging due to heterogeneous device types.
method Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation for ensemble learning.
result Ensemble learning with Bayesian optimisation improves anomaly detection accuracy.
Proposes a THGNN for dynamic financial time series prediction.
problem Challenges in predicting stock market price movements.
method Temporal and heterogeneous graph neural network (THGNN) approach.
result Significantly improved prediction performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
In this work, we utilize Machine Learning for early recognition of patients at high risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which is critical for successful prevention strategies for this devastating syndrome. The difficulty in early ARDS recognition stems from its complex and heterogenous nature. In this s…
Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that seriously endangers millions of people over the world. Hopefully, with the widespread availability of electronic health records (EHR), predictive models that can effectively deal with clinical sequential data increase the possibility to predict sepsis and take early preventiv…
A framework for causal classification using uplift and causal heterogeneity methods.
problem Predicting the effect of interventions on different individuals from data.
method Causal classification framework using off-the-shelf supervised methods.
result Framework works for causal classification and uplift modelling, competitive with other methods.
LATTE tackles heterogeneous network embedding challenges with layer-stacked attention.
problem Aggregating higher-order indirect relations in heterogeneous networks.
method Layer-stacked ATTention Embedding (LATTE) that decomposes meta relations at each layer.
result LATTE achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
A new graph model HMG and neural network HMGNN improve molecule property predictions.
problem Predicting quantum mechanical properties of molecules with limited consideration of many-body interactions.
method Introducing heterogeneous molecular graphs (HMG) and building HMGNN on neural message passing scheme.
result HMGNN achieves state-of-the-art performance in 9 out of 12 tasks on the QM9 dataset.
A new method corrects weight values to improve treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in high-dimensional data with sample selection bias.
method Differentiable Pareto-Smoothed Weighting (DPSW) framework.
result Our method outperforms existing methods in treatment effect estimation.