Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

128256383511 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for predictive ambiguity

ITCA optimizes label combination for ambiguous outcomes in multi-class classification.

problem Ambiguous outcome labels in real-world datasets hinder accurate multi-class classification.
method Information-theoretic classification accuracy (ITCA) and search strategies (greedy, breadth-first) guide label combination.
result ITCA improves prediction accuracy and identifies ambiguous labels across diverse applications.

Proposes a method to learn adaptive ambiguity sets for robust optimization.

problem Misspecification in distributionally robust optimization (DRO).
method Learned predictive ambiguity sets (LPAS) using deep contextual models.
result Significantly improves portfolio optimization performance compared to baselines.

This paper improves conformal prediction for robust interval estimation under distribution shifts.

problem Robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shifts.
method Modeling distribution shifts using Levy-Prokhorov (LP) ambiguity sets, which capture both local and global perturbations.
result Constructs robust conformal prediction intervals that remain valid under distribution shifts.

Flexible framework integrates machine learning and DRO for uncertain parameter prediction.

problem Limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates.
method Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets.
result Validation of theoretical and practical benefits in limited data scenarios.

Improves DRO with Bayesian Ambiguity Sets for model misspecification.

problem Overly conservative decisions due to misspecified models in DRO.
method Introduces DRO-RoBAS with robust posterior predictive distribution.
result Outperforms other Bayesian and empirical DRO approaches in out-of-sample performance.

OLALA automates document layout annotation by selecting ambiguous regions for labeling.

problem Efficiently annotating complex document layouts with limited resources.
method Object-Level Active Learning framework that selects ambiguous regions for labeling and uses semi-automatic correction.
result OLALA significantly boosts model performance and improves annotation efficiency.

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules based on hedging argumen…

2013-01-20abs ↗pdf ↗

New method uses conformalization to create classification regions from ambiguous labels.

problem Creating provable guarantees in classification with uncertain labels.
method Conformal methods applied to credal regions for classification problems.
result New method provides smaller and more disentangled prediction sets.

The paper critiques the ambiguity of rank-based evaluation methods for entity alignment and link prediction.

problem Ambiguity in evaluating entity alignment and link prediction methods using rank-based scores.
method Analysis of multiple evaluation measures and demonstration of their shortcomings.
result Existing scores cannot reliably compare model performance across different datasets.

Unified framework for set-valued classification tackles ambiguous multi-class datasets.

problem Ambiguous multi-class datasets in modern statistics.
method Unified statistical framework encompassing various set-valued classification formulations.
result Infinite sample optimal strategies and plug-in principle for data-driven algorithms.

aMCL uses annealing to improve hypothesis diversity in ambiguous tasks.

problem Limitations of Winner-takes-all in predicting plausible hypotheses.
method Combines simulated annealing with Multiple Choice Learning (MCL).
result Enhanced exploration of hypothesis space during training.

New measures quantify uncertainty in survival models for maintenance tasks.

problem Uncertainty in survival models for maintenance tasks.
method Formal measures of ambiguity, discrepancy, and obscurity introduced.
result Multiple accurate survival models may yield conflicting risk estimates.

A geometric account explains why 'The Dress' is ambiguous, predicting observable signatures in image processing.

problem Understanding and predicting ambiguity in image processing, particularly in intrinsic image decomposition.
method Geometric analysis of intrinsic image decomposition, focusing on the discontinuous switch in prior-mode sections.
result Predicted signatures in albedo Jacobian and Fernet curvature can be observed in various models and datasets.

Unified framework for DRO and DTA using Bayesian nonparametrics.

problem Combining DRO and DTA under ambiguity.
method Unified framework using DP and HDPs, with outlier robustness.
result Favorable performance in prediction accuracy and stability.

Contrastive learning recovers latent distributions for ambiguous inputs, including aleatoric uncertainty.

problem Real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities, making the true posterior probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty.
method Extended InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions, proving they recover the correct posteriors, including aleatoric uncertainty.
result Contrastive learning encoders can recover the correct posteriors of data-generating processes, including aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space.

Underspecified ML models can behave unpredictably in real-world use.

problem ML models can fail in real-world deployment due to ambiguous predictors.
method Identified underspecification as the cause, showing it affects various ML domains.
result Underspecified models can behave differently in deployment domains.

In this paper, we study optimal switching problems under ambiguity. To characterize the optimal switching under ambiguity in the finite horizon, we use multidimensional reflected backward stochastic differential equations (multidimensional RBSDEs) and show that a value function of the optimal switching under ambiguity …

2016-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Study insurance pricing under correlation ambiguity without increasing prices or reducing utility.

problem Understanding the dependence structure between insurance and financial risks.
method Dynamic equilibrium analysis of insurance pricing with worst-case beliefs.
result Correlation ambiguity does not necessarily increase insurance prices or reduce insurers' utility.

New formulations capture aversion to ambiguity about volatility.

problem Capturing aversion to ambiguity about unknown and time-varying volatility.
method Introduces novel preference formulations and compares them with existing models.
result Illustrates the impact of ambiguity aversion in static and dynamic models.

A framework for robust exploration in reinforcement learning under ambiguity.

problem Optimal stopping under ambiguity in reinforcement learning.
method Continuous-time robust reinforcement learning framework using gg-expectation and backward stochastic differential equations.
result Constructs a robust exploratory stopping time approximating the optimal stopping time under ambiguity.

Study inert and ambiguous classes in modular group using combinatorial methods.

problem Counting inert and ambiguous conjugacy classes in modular group.
method Purely combinatorial approach using word length in free product representation.
result Exact counting formulas and asymptotic growth rates for inert and ambiguous classes.

Ordinal data are often seen in real applications. Regular multicategory classification methods are not designed for this data type and a more proper treatment is needed. We consider a framework of ordinal classification which pools the results from binary classifiers together. An inherent difficulty of this framework i…

2015-05-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.

problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.

We study the dynamic indifference pricing with ambiguity preferences. For this, we introduce the dynamic expected utility with ambiguity via the nonlinear expectation--G-expectation, introduced by Peng (2007). We also study the risk aversion and certainty equivalent for the agents with ambiguity. We obtain the dynamic …

2015-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

ST-MAML tackles task ambiguity in meta-learning by encoding tasks with stochastic representations.

problem Handling tasks from multiple distributions is challenging for meta-learning due to task ambiguity.
method ST-MAML uses a stochastic neural network module to encode tasks and propagate task representations to revise input variable encoding.
result ST-MAML matches or outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various tasks.

Paper investigates Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing.

problem Investigates Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing.
method Establishes equivalence of robust ΛΛVaR and traditional ΛΛVaR under ambiguity sets, analyzes properties, derives explicit formulas, and explores risk sharing.
result Unified and extended the concept of Value-at-Risk under ambiguity, derived explicit formulas for specific ambiguity sets, and explored risk sharing.

Paper develops online learning-based risk-averse MPC for uncertain systems.

problem Designing robust MPC for systems with unknown but inferable stochastic disturbances.
method Proposes a novel online learning framework using CVaR constraints and Dirichlet process mixture models.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and adaptability of MPC in handling time-varying disturbance distributions.

Study optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.

problem Optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.
method Smooth model of decision making under ambiguity aversion, optimal stopping problem with learning.
result Proves a minimax result reducing the problem to standard optimal stopping problems with learning.

Optimal policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs) are very sensitive to model misspecification. This raises serious concerns about deploying them in high-stake domains. Robust MDPs (RMDP) provide a promising framework to mitigate vulnerabilities by computing policies with worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learn…

2019-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper compares different DRO formulations for pension fund management.

problem Navigating uncertainty in asset liability management for pension funds.
method Three DRO formulations: mixture, box, and Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
result Wasserstein and box ambiguity sets outperform traditional approaches in fund performance.

Adapts AUM to identify ambiguous tasks in crowdsourced learning, improving generalization.

problem Discerning ambiguous tasks in crowdsourced labels to prevent mislabeling.
method Introduces Weighted Areas Under the Margin (WAUM) to average AUMs weighted by task-specific scores.
result Improves generalization performance by discarding ambiguous tasks.