NNs accurately predict energy eigenvalues and other physical phenomena in 1D quantum mechanics.
problem Understanding how neural networks interpret physics.
method Training NNs to predict energy eigenvalues from potentials and testing their ability to generalize.
result NNs can predict physical phenomena not learned during training, indicating a new way of understanding physics.
Study uses EEG and ML to predict movie ratings with 72% accuracy.
problem Predicting consumer preferences for movie trailers.
method EEG and machine learning techniques to analyze brain responses to movie trailers.
result Predicted movie ratings with 72% accuracy.
Cyclic Boosting offers detailed prediction understanding for machine learning models.
problem Complex machine learning models are often black boxes, making individual predictions hard to understand.
method Cyclic Boosting is a novel machine learning algorithm that provides detailed understanding of predictions.
result Cyclic Boosting enables detailed understanding of how predictions are made, even for complex models.
In this chapter, we provide a brief overview of applying machine learning techniques for clinical prediction tasks. We begin with a quick introduction to the concepts of machine learning and outline some of the most common machine learning algorithms. Next, we demonstrate how to apply the algorithms with appropriate to…
The paper extends explainability methods to uncertainty-aware models, revealing feature impacts on predictive entropy and likelihood.
problem Understanding the factors contributing to uncertainty in probabilistic models.
method Adapting permutation feature importance, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots to measure feature impacts on predictive entropy and likelihood.
result Novel insights into model behaviour and feature impacts on uncertainty are obtained.
Enhances drug discovery models by understanding human language.
problem Low predictive quality of activity prediction models in drug discovery.
method Proposes a novel architecture with separate chemical and natural language input modules and a contrastive pre-training objective.
result Improves predictive performance on few-shot and zero-shot learning benchmarks.
The paper explores how neural networks make predictions using probabilistic programming.
problem Understanding how neural networks make individual predictions.
method Defining and sampling prediction level sets using probabilistic programming.
result The method can obtain examples that result in specified predictions by neural networks.
We present a method for explaining the image classification predictions of deep convolution neural networks, by highlighting the pixels in the image which influence the final class prediction. Our method requires the identification of a heuristic method to select parameters hypothesized to be most relevant in this pred…
Gaining a better understanding of how and what machine learning systems learn is important to increase confidence in their decisions and catalyze further research. In this paper, we analyze the predictions made by a specific type of recurrent neural network, mixture density RNNs (MD-RNNs). These networks learn to model…
System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
problem Helping experts make accurate decisions in multiclass classification tasks.
method Develops an automated decision support system using conformal prediction to provide precise prediction sets and an efficient search method.
result System improves expert predictions by providing precise prediction sets and forcing experts to predict from these sets.
Humans gain an implicit understanding of physical laws through observing and interacting with the world. Endowing an autonomous agent with an understanding of physical laws through experience and observation is seldom practical: we should seek alternatives. Fortunately, many of the laws of behaviour of the physical wor…
FinALBERT predicts stock prices using labelled Stocktwits data.
problem Efficient stock price prediction with limited labelled datasets.
method FinALBERT is an ALBERT-based model trained on labelled Stocktwits data for financial text classification.
result FinALBERT achieves optimal results in predicting stock price changes.
Machine learning (ML) algorithms and machine learning based software systems implicitly or explicitly involve complex flow of information between various entities such as training data, feature space, validation set and results. Understanding the statistical distribution of such information and how they flow from one e…
Linear models can grok without understanding, improving generalization.
problem Understanding the phenomenon of grokking in linear models.
method Analytical and numerical derivation of training and generalization dynamics in linear networks.
result Grokking can occur in linear networks without reaching understanding, and its timing depends on various parameters.
Although deep learning techniques have been successfully applied to many tasks, interpreting deep neural network models is still a big challenge to us. Recently, many works have been done on visualizing and analyzing the mechanism of deep neural networks in the areas of image processing and natural language processing.…
This paper proposes a new method for an optimized mapping of temporal variables, describing a temporal stream data, into the recently proposed NeuCube spiking neural network architecture. This optimized mapping extends the use of the NeuCube, which was initially designed for spatiotemporal brain data, to work on arbitr…
CERT improves language understanding by contrastively learning sentence-level semantics.
problem Lack of sentence-level semantics in existing pretraining tasks.
method Contrastive self-supervised learning at the sentence level using back-translation augmentations.
result CERT outperforms BERT on 7 out of 11 GLUE benchmark tasks, achieving the same performance as BERT on 2 tasks.
How can we explain the predictions of a black-box model? In this paper, we use influence functions -- a classic technique from robust statistics -- to trace a model's prediction through the learning algorithm and back to its training data, thereby identifying training points most responsible for a given prediction. To …
This study aims to predict vessel stay and delay times at ports to optimize logistics.
problem Uncertainties in maritime logistics, including weather, cargo diversity, and port dynamics, lead to increased costs and inefficiencies.
method Developed predictive analytics to address shortcomings in previous works, using feature analysis and SHAP explanations.
result Predictive analytics can assist in efficient planning and scheduling of port operations, reducing costs and improving logistics.
Label smoothing improves generalization by controlling generalization loss.
problem Lack of mathematical understanding of label smoothing's effectiveness.
method Proposed a theoretical framework to show how label smoothing controls generalization loss in the label noise setting.
result Predicted an optimal label smoothing point that minimizes generalization loss.
SAGE quantifies feature importance in machine learning models.
problem Understanding the role of individual features in complex models.
method Formalizing predictive power through model-based and universal measures, and introducing SAGE for efficient calculation.
result SAGE assigns more accurate feature importance values than other methods.
Measures difficulty of predictions to improve deep learning models.
problem Understanding and improving deep learning models.
method Introduces a measure called prediction depth to assess example difficulty.
result Surprising relationships between prediction depth and model performance.
Predictive modeling is invaded by elastic, yet complex methods such as neural networks or ensembles (model stacking, boosting or bagging). Such methods are usually described by a large number of parameters or hyper parameters - a price that one needs to pay for elasticity. The very number of parameters makes models har…
A predictor improves power grid frequency forecasts up to one hour.
problem Improving frequency forecast for better power system stability.
method Developed a weighted-nearest-neighbor (WNN) predictor.
result Forecasts for up to one hour are more precise than averaged daily profiles.
New method estimates model uncertainty in regression.
problem Challenges in distinguishing aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method Conditional predictions with model's initial output.
result Rigorous frequentist approach to epistemic uncertainty.
Financial time series prediction, especially with machine learning techniques, is an extensive field of study. In recent times, deep learning methods (especially time series analysis) have performed outstandingly for various industrial problems, with better prediction than machine learning methods. Moreover, many resea…
A new method predicts links better across various networks.
problem Adaptive link prediction for diverse network types.
method MOLI method using local information from neighbors of different distances.
result MOLI outperforms other link prediction algorithms.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Genomic models learn DNA sequences to predict functions.
problem Understanding complex genetic interactions.
method Training LLMs on DNA sequences to predict functions.
result gLMs can predict functions of DNA elements.
Proposes a method to boost deep reinforcement learning with sparse rewards.
problem Challenges in learning complex behaviors with long horizons and sparse rewards.
method Predictive coding for reward shaping.
result Achieves better learning by providing reward signals that understand environment dynamics and emphasize useful features.
Bayesian method improves predictions in overparameterized nonlinear regression.
problem Understanding overparameterization in nonlinear regression models.
method Bayesian framework with adaptive prior considering data spectral structure.
result Posterior contraction established for generalized linear and single-neuron models, demonstrating prediction consistency.
Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also pr…
Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though a large class of such tools currently exists, most assume that predictions are p…
There is a large amount of interest in understanding users of social media in order to predict their behavior in this space. Despite this interest, user predictability in social media is not well-understood. To examine this question, we consider a network of fifteen thousand users on Twitter over a seven week period. W…
PAQ8 is an open source lossless data compression algorithm that currently achieves the best compression rates on many benchmarks. This report presents a detailed description of PAQ8 from a statistical machine learning perspective. It shows that it is possible to understand some of the modules of PAQ8 and use this under…
Improves understanding of neural network predictions using influence functions.
problem Challenges in understanding neural network predictions.
method Utilized NTK theory to calculate influence functions for over-parameterized neural networks.
result Proved that the approximation error of IF can be arbitrarily small in the over-parameterized regime.
Paper argues for using functional theory of randomness for better understanding of data exchangeability and conformal prediction.
problem Understanding relationships between IID data assumptions and data exchangeability.
method Translation of conformal prediction results into the language of functional theory of randomness.
result Every confidence predictor valid for IID data can be transformed to a conformal predictor without losing much predictive efficiency.
Data scientists guide to streamflow prediction and flood forecasting.
problem Forecasting floods and predicting streamflow volume.
method Explains hydrologic concepts and machine learning applications.
result Helps data scientists understand streamflow prediction.
Non-experts have long made important contributions to machine learning (ML) by contributing training data, and recent work has shown that non-experts can also help with feature engineering by suggesting novel predictive features. However, non-experts have only contributed features to prediction tasks already posed by e…
Deep networks are able to learn highly predictive models of video data. Due to video length, a common strategy is to train them on small video snippets. We apply the deep Taylor / LRP technique to understand the deep network's classification decisions, and identify a "border effect": a tendency of the classifier to loo…
As a result of social network popularity, in recent years, hate speech phenomenon has significantly increased. Due to its harmful effect on minority groups as well as on large communities, there is a pressing need for hate speech detection and filtering. However, automatic approaches shall not jeopardize free speech, s…
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
It is commonly believed that increasing the interpretability of a machine learning model may decrease its predictive power. However, inspecting input-output relationships of those models using visual analytics, while treating them as black-box, can help to understand the reasoning behind outcomes without sacrificing pr…
Gaussian process models simplify neural network behavior for easier understanding.
problem Understanding and predicting the behavior of deep learning systems.
method Constructing surrogate models using Gaussian processes from finite neural networks.
result Surrogate models capture phenomena like spectral bias and predict generalization well.
Background doesn't affect personality predictions in deep networks.
problem Understanding how background images influence personality attribution in deep learning models.
method Explicitly studied the effect of background images on personality prediction in deep residual networks, controlling for confounds.
result Adding background information to input decreases model performance for personality trait prediction.
Predicts the age of astronomical transients from real-time data.
problem Improving understanding of transients and their progenitor systems.
method Bayesian probabilistic recurrent neural network.
result Accurately predicts the age of transients with robust uncertainties.
Study predicts purchasing decisions of online food delivery customers.
problem Understanding and predicting consumer purchasing decisions in online food delivery.
method Used machine learning techniques including CART, C4.5, random forest, and rule-based classifiers to predict purchasing decisions.
result C4.5 decision tree model outperformed others with 91.67% accuracy.
Simplified equation predicts model sensitivity to data.
problem Understanding model sensitivity to training data is challenging and costly.
method Derived using Bayesian principles, the Memory-Perturbation Equation (MPE) unifies and generalizes existing sensitivity measures.
result Empirical results show sensitivity estimates during training can predict generalization on unseen test data.