A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Advances rule-based multi-label classification using conformal prediction.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
Proposes a score to compare rule-based algorithms' interpretability.
In this paper, we study the problem of learning probabilistic logical rules for inductive and interpretable link prediction. Despite the importance of inductive link prediction, most previous works focused on transductive link prediction and cannot manage previously unseen entities. Moreover, they are black-box models …
As we rely more and more on machine learning models for real-life decision-making, being able to understand and trust the predictions becomes ever more important. Local explainer models have recently been introduced to explain the predictions of complex machine learning models at the instance level. In this paper, we p…
This paper improves prediction rule ensembles using model-based data generation.
A new gradient boosting method improves interpretability of probabilistic models.
Paper presents unsupervised calibration for split conformal classification.
Two methods are proposed for high-dimensional shape-constrained regression and classification. These methods reshape pre-trained prediction rules to satisfy shape constraints like monotonicity and convexity. The first method can be applied to any pre-trained prediction rule, while the second method deals specifically w…
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
This research adapts scoring rules for training survival models, improving predictive performance.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
Ensemble methods for supervised machine learning have become popular due to their ability to accurately predict class labels with groups of simple, lightweight "base learners." While ensembles offer computationally efficient models that have good predictive capability they tend to be large and offer little insight into…
R2N learns interpretable rules and literals from numerical features.
Proposes PEMI for online selective conformal prediction with asymmetric rules.
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
New framework learns interpretable rule ensembles without sacrificing accuracy.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
We propose a method to extract interpretable rules from tree ensembles.
Paper proves Jeffrey's update rule minimizes relative entropy.
The nearest neighbor rule is proven consistent in a broad setting.
New methods prune unpromising rules from KGs, improving scalability and runtime.
In this article supervised learning problems are solved using soft rule ensembles. We first review the importance sampling learning ensembles (ISLE) approach that is useful for generating hard rules. The soft rules are then obtained with logistic regression from the corresponding hard rules. In order to deal with the p…
With a growing interest in using non-representative samples to train prediction models for numerous outcomes it is necessary to account for the sampling design that gives rise to the data in order to assess the generalized predictive utility of a proposed prediction rule. After learning a prediction rule based on a non…
SIRUS creates interpretable rules from random forests for regression.
A new score function improves explainability and reliability of AI systems.
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…
In this paper, we explore various statistical techniques for anomaly detection in conjunction with the popular Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model for transportation networks. We obtain the prediction errors from an LSTM model, and then apply three statistical models based on (i) the Gaussian distribution…
In this paper we study predictive pattern mining problems where the goal is to construct a predictive model based on a subset of predictive patterns in the database. Our main contribution is to introduce a novel method called safe pattern pruning (SPP) for a class of predictive pattern mining problems. The SPP method a…
A prediscretisation of numerical attributes which is required by some rule learning algorithms is a source of inefficiencies. This paper describes new rule tuning steps that aim to recover lost information in the discretisation and new pruning techniques that may further reduce the size of rule models and improve their…
TransINT embeds KGs by preserving implication rules, outperforming existing methods.
Understanding the behavior of a trained network and finding explanations for its outputs is important for improving the network's performance and generalization ability, and for ensuring trust in automated systems. Several approaches have previously been proposed to identify and visualize the most important features by…
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
This paper considers generalized linear models using rule-based features, also referred to as rule ensembles, for regression and probabilistic classification. Rules facilitate model interpretation while also capturing nonlinear dependences and interactions. Our problem formulation accordingly trades off rule set comple…
Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest sensitivity of 18.2-…
Design rule check is a critical step in the physical design of integrated circuits to ensure manufacturability. However, it can be done only after a time-consuming detailed routing procedure, which adds drastically to the time of design iterations. With advanced technology nodes, the outcomes of global routing and deta…
Study efficient sequential evaluation of large language models using historical data.
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. Their profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousands traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Co…
Improves risk control in predictions using semi-supervised calibration.
This work proposes optimal decision rules for hierarchical classifiers to better align with evaluation metrics.
When people learn mathematical patterns or sequences, they are able to identify the concepts (or rules) underlying those patterns. Having learned the underlying concepts, humans are also able to generalize those concepts to other numbers, so far as to even identify previously unseen combinations of those rules. Current…
In many predictive decision-making scenarios, such as credit scoring and academic testing, a decision-maker must construct a model that accounts for agents' propensity to "game" the decision rule by changing their features so as to receive better decisions. Whereas the strategic classification literature has previously…
Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
We consider using an ensemble of binary classifiers for transductive prediction, when unlabeled test data are known in advance. We derive minimax optimal rules for confidence-rated prediction in this setting. By using PAC-Bayes analysis on these rules, we obtain data-dependent performance guarantees without distributio…
The paper argues that machine learning is a falsificationist process.