This paper improves prediction rule ensembles using model-based data generation.
problem Improving the sparsity and predictive accuracy of prediction rule ensembles.
method The authors use surrogate models to train Lasso regression with data generated by a boosted decision tree ensemble, improving PRE performance.
result The use of surrogacy models can substantially improve the sparsity of PRE while retaining predictive accuracy.
Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach to overcome this missing data problem is to analyze treatments effects on an int…
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Study uses surrogate data to improve treatment effect estimation with scarce outcome data.
problem Limited outcome data hinders estimating treatment effects.
method Uses abundant surrogate data to estimate treatment effects without stringent assumptions.
result Improves precision of treatment effect estimation.
The paper proposes a method to assess surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.
problem Lack of methods to evaluate surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.
method Proposes a framework using meta-learners to assess surrogate heterogeneity in real-world data.
result Identifies individuals for whom the surrogate is a valid replacement of the primary outcome.
We consider the recovery of regression coefficients, denoted by β0, for a single index model (SIM) relating a binary outcome Y to a set of possibly high dimensional covariates X, based on a large but 'unlabeled' dataset U, with Y never observed. On U, we fully ob…
New LT-O-learners improve HLTE estimation with low overlap.
problem Challenges in estimating heterogeneous long-term treatment effects due to limited overlap.
method Introduces LT-O-learners that use custom overlap weights to downweight low-overlap samples.
result LT-O-learners provide robust HLTE estimates with lower variance in low-overlap regimes.
Estimates proxy-based inference adjustments for distribution shifts.
problem Imperfect proxy data leads to biased inference.
method Empirical calibration of proxy-primary metric discrepancy as a random effect.
result Empowers inference without individual-level response data.
The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.
problem Maximizing long-term outcomes observed only in the future.
method Imputing missing long-term outcomes and using a doubly-robust approach for policy evaluation and optimization.
result The approach outperforms simple short-term proxies and achieves significant revenue impact over three years.