Advances rule-based multi-label classification using conformal prediction.
problem Improving accuracy and decision making in multi-label classification.
method Combines conformal prediction with rule-based learning to provide natural conformity scores and calibrate rule assessments.
result Calibrated conformity scores enhance prediction accuracy and decision making.
Two reshaping methods enforce shape constraints on pre-trained prediction rules.
problem Enforcing shape constraints on pre-trained prediction rules.
method Two methods: first for any pre-trained rule, second for random forests.
result Reshaping methods enforce shape constraints without sacrificing predictive accuracy.
DRUM discovers interpretable rules from knowledge graphs for unseen entities.
problem Inductive link prediction on unseen entities and lack of interpretability.
method Differentiable approach using bidirectional RNNs for low-rank tensor approximation.
result DRUM outperforms existing methods in inductive link prediction.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
Proposes a score to compare rule-based algorithms' interpretability.
problem Lack of consensus on interpretability for predictive models.
method Defines a score with three terms: predictivity, stability, and simplicity, each quantified by simple formulas.
result Compares interpretability of rule-based and tree-based algorithms for regression and classification.
LoRMIkA finds k-optimal association rules for local model interpretability.
problem Ensuring trust in machine learning predictions.
method Model-agnostic approach using k-optimal association rules from a neighbourhood.
result Achieves competitive results in local accuracy and interpretability.
This paper improves prediction rule ensembles using model-based data generation.
problem Improving the sparsity and predictive accuracy of prediction rule ensembles.
method The authors use surrogate models to train Lasso regression with data generated by a boosted decision tree ensemble, improving PRE performance.
result The use of surrogacy models can substantially improve the sparsity of PRE while retaining predictive accuracy.
A new gradient boosting method improves interpretability of probabilistic models.
problem Learning interpretable yet accurate probabilistic models with limited rule complexity.
method A new objective function that measures the angle between risk gradient and condition output vector projection.
result Significantly improves comprehensibility/accuracy trade-off of fitted ensemble.
Paper presents unsupervised calibration for split conformal classification.
problem Inconvenient requirement of labeled calibration samples.
method Uses unsupervised calibration samples alongside supervised training samples.
result Achieves comparable performance to supervised calibration methods.
New prediction rule for preterm births with high sensitivity and specificity.
problem Difficulty in predicting preterm births accurately.
method Automatically generated and selected interpretable prediction rule from high-dimensional data.
result Simplified prediction rule with 10 items has 62.3% sensitivity and 81.5% specificity.
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
problem Improving tree-based nonparametric predictive distributions.
method Using proper scoring rules for tree splitting criteria.
result Trees with new splitting criteria produce better predictive distributions.
RIPE predicts and explains continuous/discrete data with sparse rule sets.
problem Predicting and explaining continuous/discrete data.
method RIPE infers a model from a sample, extracting a sparse set of hyperrectangles (rules) to partition the feature space.
result RIPE efficiently predicts and explains data, superior to other algorithms.
This research adapts scoring rules for training survival models, improving predictive performance.
problem Training survival models with traditional methods struggles with censoring.
method Adapting scoring rules for survival analysis, creating a flexible framework for model training.
result Scoring rules can be successfully incorporated into model training, yielding competitive performance.
QCBA improves rule classifiers by recovering lost information from discretised quantitative data.
problem Inefficiencies in rule learning algorithms due to prediscretisation of numerical attributes.
method New rule tuning steps and pruning techniques to recover lost information and reduce rule model size.
result FOIL2+QCBA outperforms all seven baselines on 22 UCI datasets, including FOIL2+QCBA.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
problem Evaluation of probabilistic top lists in classification.
method Elicitability through symmetric proper scoring rules.
result Brier score provides a well-suited metric for comparison.
Ensemble methods for supervised machine learning have become popular due to their ability to accurately predict class labels with groups of simple, lightweight "base learners." While ensembles offer computationally efficient models that have good predictive capability they tend to be large and offer little insight into…
Rule induction explains neural network predictions globally.
problem Understanding and explaining the behavior of trained models.
method Calculate feature importance, transform inputs, simplify space, fit rule induction model.
result Rule sets explain neural network predictions with 0.80 macro-averaged F-score.
R2N learns interpretable rules and literals from numerical features.
problem Lack of expressive vocabulary in rule-based decision models.
method Relational Rule Network (R2N) learns literals and rules end-to-end.
result Learned literals improve prediction accuracy and rule conciseness.
Proposes PEMI for online selective conformal prediction with asymmetric rules.
problem Challenges of handling asymmetric selection mechanisms in online selective conformal prediction.
method PEMI: permutation-based framework for selective conformal prediction with arbitrary asymmetric selection rules.
result Achieves exact selection-conditional coverage for any asymmetric selection mechanism and any prediction model.
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
problem Deriving optimal treatment rules for bivariate survival outcomes in randomized trials.
method Adaptive prediction-powered learning using deep neural networks and stochastic policies.
result Maximizes joint survival probability beyond fixed time points (t1,t2). New framework learns interpretable rule ensembles without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Trade-off between accuracy and interpretability in rule ensembles.
method Introduces local interpretability and a regularizer to promote it, using coordinate descent with local search.
result Learns rule ensembles with fewer rules to explain individual predictions, maintaining comparable accuracy.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
Neural network ensembles predict design rule violations from early stages of IC design.
problem Predicting design rule violations from placement and global routing stages in IC design.
method Proposes a framework using neural network ensembles with soft voting and PCA-based subset selection.
result Significant improvement in model performance compared to baseline, including better performance than random forest.
We propose a method to extract interpretable rules from tree ensembles.
problem Tree ensembles are accurate but hard to interpret.
method Propose an estimator to extract compact sets of decision rules from tree ensembles.
result Our estimator improves accuracy and reveals useful relationships in the data.
Paper proves Jeffrey's update rule minimizes relative entropy.
problem Improving Bayesian learning algorithms.
method More concise proof of Jeffrey's update rule.
result Jeffrey's update rule reduces relative entropy.
The nearest neighbor rule is proven consistent in a broad setting.
problem Proving consistency of the nearest neighbor rule in various settings.
method Proving online consistency for all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces under mild assumptions.
result The nearest neighbor rule is online consistent in all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces.
Bayesian model predicts sequences better than LSTMs by identifying underlying rules.
problem Current RNNs struggle to generalize from limited training data and identify underlying rules in sequences.
method Bayesian model that learns underlying concepts from sequences and generalizes to new data.
result Bayesian model predicts sequences better than traditional LSTMs.
New methods prune unpromising rules from KGs, improving scalability and runtime.
problem Scalability issues in walk-based rule learning from KGs.
method Rule Hierarchy Framework (RHF) and Hierarchical Pruning (HPMs).
result Significant reductions in runtime and number of learned rules without compromising predictive performance.
In this article supervised learning problems are solved using soft rule ensembles. We first review the importance sampling learning ensembles (ISLE) approach that is useful for generating hard rules. The soft rules are then obtained with logistic regression from the corresponding hard rules. In order to deal with the p…
Estimates prediction error for non-uniform samples.
problem Account for non-uniform sampling in prediction model evaluation.
method Extends Efron's estimator with Horvitz-Thompson weights for complex samples.
result Consistent estimator of generalized prediction error for complex samples.
A new score function improves explainability and reliability of AI systems.
problem Designing AI systems that are explainable, robust, and trustworthy.
method Integrates conformal prediction with explainable machine learning using a novel score function.
result The method achieves improved performance on target classes and satisfies conformal guarantees.
SIRUS creates interpretable rules from random forests for regression.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models.
method Random forest with rule extraction for stability and simplicity.
result SIRUS produces stable and interpretable rule sets.
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
Paper uses LSTM for anomaly detection in transportation networks.
problem Anomaly detection in transportation networks.
method LSTM model combined with statistical techniques (Gaussian, EVT, Tukey's method).
result EVT-based detection rule outperforms other methods.
Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…
TransINT embeds KGs by preserving implication rules, outperforming existing methods.
problem Embedding KGs while preserving relation implications for better access and analysis.
method Isomorphic intersections of linear subspaces with shared parameters for missing facts.
result Significant performance improvement in link prediction and triple classification.
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
problem Performative predictions undermine standard forecasting methods.
method Condition forecasts on covariates to make them forecast-invariant.
result Proper scoring rules fail under conditioning, but two solutions are identified.
Safe pattern pruning finds predictive patterns efficiently.
problem Finding optimal predictive patterns in databases.
method Safe Pattern Pruning (SPP) method for predictive pattern mining.
result SPP method efficiently finds superset of all needed predictive patterns.
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.
SIRUS creates interpretable rules from random forests for manufacturing.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex models for critical decisions.
method SIRUS is a classification algorithm based on random forests that produces a simple list of rules.
result SIRUS achieves stability and accuracy comparable to random forests.
aLIME produces clear rule-based explanations for model predictions.
problem Interpreting machine learning models for accurate human predictions.
method Anchor-LIME (aLIME) for model-agnostic rule-based explanations.
result aLIME produces high-precision rule-based explanations with clear coverage boundaries.
Study efficient sequential evaluation of large language models using historical data.
problem Sequentially evaluate a new large language model (LLM) on a fixed question set.
method Construct a confidence sequence (CS) and design active querying rules to shrink CS width.
result Simple uniform sampling can sometimes outperform adaptive querying rules.
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.
HyRS model achieves transparency without sacrificing predictive performance.
problem Achieving interpretability in black-box models with good predictive power.
method HyRS model using decision rules for interpretable subspace, efficient search algorithm for optimal model selection.
result HyRS model obtains effective trade-off between transparency and interpretability.
The paper proposes a method to optimize rule-based models for better accuracy and interpretability.
problem Developing rule-based models for regression and classification with better accuracy and interpretability.
method Column generation to optimize over an exponentially large space of rules, using integer programming or a heuristic.
result The proposed methods achieve better accuracy-complexity trade-offs than existing rule ensemble algorithms.
Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. Their profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousands traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Co…
Improves risk control in predictions using semi-supervised calibration.
problem Noisy hyper-parameter tuning from limited labeled data.
method Semi-supervised calibration using unlabeled data to tune hyper-parameters rigorously.
result Improves prediction accuracy without sacrificing statistical validity.