Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.
problem Understanding why language models generate coherent documents despite focusing on next-token prediction.
method Proving the power of next-token prediction in learning longer-range structure using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).
result Optimizing next-token prediction in RNNs yields a model that closely approximates the training distribution, even for long-range coherence.
Study predicts cryptocurrency trends using LSTM model.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price trends.
method Combination of window-sliding and prediction range method with LSTM model.
result Established model for cryptocurrency price trend prediction.
Prediction and interpolation for long-range video data involves the complex task of modeling motion trajectories for each visible object, occlusions and dis-occlusions, as well as appearance changes due to viewpoint and lighting. Optical flow based techniques generalize but are suitable only for short temporal ranges. …
We investigate the predictability of several range-based stock volatility estimators, and compare them to the standard close-to-close estimator which is most commonly acknowledged as the volatility. The patterns of volatility changes are analyzed using LSTM recurrent neural networks, which are a state of the art method…
Proposes CRA framework for certifying fair predictive models.
problem Certifying fairness of predictive models trained on biased data.
method Formulates CRA for fairness queries, uses background knowledge and limited target population stats.
result Builds certifiably fair predictive models on target population.
Paper proposes a new method to improve BART model predictions outside training data range.
problem Improving prediction and prediction intervals for BART models at extrapolation points.
method Gaussian processes are added to BART leaf nodes for extrapolation.
result The new method outperforms standard BART and frequentist resampling methods in simulations.
A new GP interpolation method for better predictive distributions in ranges of interest.
problem Improving predictive distributions in specific ranges of interest.
method Relaxed Gaussian process interpolation, relaxing interpolation constraints outside ranges of interest.
result Better predictive distributions in ranges of interest, especially in non-stationary cases.
The Neural Testbed evaluates joint predictions of neural agents, revealing their limitations.
problem Evaluating the quality of joint predictions generated by neural agents.
method Developed an open-source benchmark (The Neural Testbed) to assess agents' marginal and joint predictions.
result Popular Bayesian deep learning agents perform poorly on joint predictions, even with accurate marginal predictions.
A multi-scale model predicts atomic-scale properties using both local and long-range information.
problem Inability of machine-learning schemes to capture long-range physical effects.
method Combines local and non-local information in a multipole expansion framework.
result Demonstrates the ability to model electrostatics, polarization, and dispersion.
HGNet improves GNNs' ability to handle long-range interactions in graphs.
problem Insufficiency of GNNs in capturing long-range interactions.
method Introduces hierarchical message passing models with multi-resolution graph representations.
result HGNet outperforms conventional GNNs in molecular property prediction.
Numerous studies have been carried out to measure wind pressures around circular cylinders since the early 20th century due to its engineering significance. Consequently, a large amount of wind pressure data sets have accumulated, which presents an excellent opportunity for using machine learning (ML) techniques to tra…
New method produces coherent forecasts for long-range data.
problem Inaccurate and non-coherent forecasts on long-horizon data.
method Probabilistic forecasting with KL-divergence for coherent aggregates.
result Improves forecast performance across base levels and aggregates.
PARNN improves ARNN with ARIMA feedback for accurate long-range forecasting.
problem Accurate long-range forecasting of complex time series data.
method Improves ARNN using ARIMA feedback, providing uncertainty quantification.
result PARNN outperforms state-of-the-art forecasters across various horizons.
Predicts solar dynamics with diffusion models, improving long-range dependencies.
problem Predicting solar dynamics with limited observable data.
method Multiscale inference scheme for diffusion models.
result Improved long-range predictions with reduced bias.
Proposes a new network for accurate predictions and uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in regression predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
method Decoupled two-stage training process with custom loss function.
result Reduces prediction error by 23-34% while maintaining 95% PICP.
Recently exciting progress has been made on protein contact prediction, but the predicted contacts for proteins without many sequence homologs is still of low quality and not very useful for de novo structure prediction. This paper presents a new deep learning method that predicts contacts by integrating both evolution…
FutureQuant Transformer predicts price ranges and volatility for futures trading.
problem Complex futures trading with real-time LOBs and vast data.
method FutureQuant Transformer model using attention mechanisms.
result Significantly improved trading performance with an average gain of 0.1193%.
Many machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used to generate bioclimatic models for prediction of geographic range of organism as a function of climate. Applications such as prediction of range shift in organism, range of invasive species influenced by climate change are important parameters in understanding the i…
A new method to predict uncertainties in trained neural networks.
problem Reliability of trained neural networks outside their training domain.
method Prediction rigidities as a constrained optimization problem.
result Cheap uncertainties without modifying neural networks.
Clinical outcome prediction based on the Electronic Health Record (EHR) plays a crucial role in improving the quality of healthcare. Conventional deep sequential models fail to capture the rich temporal patterns encoded in the longand irregular clinical event sequences. We make the observation that clinical events at a…
In this work, we investigate whether state-of-the-art object detection systems have equitable predictive performance on pedestrians with different skin tones. This work is motivated by many recent examples of ML and vision systems displaying higher error rates for certain demographic groups than others. We annotate an …
Paper optimizes liquidity provision in decentralized finance markets.
problem Strategic LPs face predictable losses and concentration risk in CL pools.
method Derive optimal liquidity provision strategy based on fees, PL, and concentration risk.
result Optimal strategy increases fee revenue and profit from marginal rate changes.
We study how the regret guarantees of nonstochastic multi-armed bandits can be improved, if the effective range of the losses in each round is small (e.g. the maximal difference between two losses in a given round). Despite a recent impossibility result, we show how this can be made possible under certain mild addition…
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
Fractal analysis is carried out on the stock market indices of seven European countries and the US. We find evidence of long range dependence in the log return series of the Mibtel (Italy) and the PX Glob (Czech Republic). Long range dependence implies that predictable patterns in the log returns do not dissipate quick…
Efficient approach improves prediction calibration for domain shifts.
problem Improving uncertainty-aware predictions for domain shifts.
method Combining entropy-encouraging and adversarial calibration losses.
result Substantially outperforms existing approaches in domain drift calibration.
IGNN captures long-range graph dependencies using fixed-point equations.
problem Limited GNN ability to capture long-range graph dependencies.
method Fixed-point equilibrium equations involving implicitly defined state vectors, leveraging Perron-Frobenius theory and projected gradient descent.
result IGNN consistently captures long-range dependencies and outperforms state-of-the-art GNNs.
Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.
We consider the general problem of modeling temporal data with long-range dependencies, wherein new observations are fully or partially predictable based on temporally-distant, past observations. A sufficiently powerful temporal model should separate predictable elements of the sequence from unpredictable elements, exp…
Preterm newborns undergo various stresses that may materialize as learning problems at school-age. Sleep staging of the Electroencephalogram (EEG), followed by prediction of their brain-age from these sleep states can quantify deviations from normal brain development early (when compared to the known age). Current auto…
A new method for forming learning objectives using the sum of ranked range.
problem Forming learning objectives from aggregated values.
method Sum of ranked range (SoRR) minimization with DCA.
result The proposed method effectively forms learning objectives and is applicable to binary and multi-label/multi-class classification.
Study on how imprecise medical data affects predictions in hyperthyroidism.
problem Impact of imprecise medical data on prediction results.
method Formulated a model for data imprecisions, generated imprecise samples, defined measures to evaluate impacts, and performed experiments.
result Small imprecisions can lead to large ranges of predicted results, potentially causing mis-labeling and inappropriate actions.
Introduces Spectral Attention for better long-range time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in capturing long-range dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Spectral Attention mechanism that preserves temporal correlations and long-range dependencies.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on 11 real-world time series datasets.
In this paper, mm-Pose, a novel approach to detect and track human skeletons in real-time using an mmWave radar, is proposed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first method to detect >15 distinct skeletal joints using mmWave radar reflection signals. The proposed method would find several applications …
Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It is therefore critical to account for kernel uncertainty in our predictive distri…
HGConv uses HRR to efficiently detect malware, outperforming existing methods.
problem Efficiently detecting malware with long sequences.
method Holographic Global Convolutional Networks (HGConv) utilizing Holographic Reduced Representations (HRR).
result Achieved state-of-the-art results on malware benchmarks.
Paper proposes a novel approach to improve spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts for flood damage mitigation.
method Introduces a rain-code fusion approach using ConvLSTM and multi-frame fusion for spatiotemporal precipitation code-to-code forecasting.
result Demonstrates enhanced accuracy in precipitation forecasts beyond 3 timesteps using the rain-code fusion.
Convolutional neural networks predict the analytic rank of elliptic curves accurately.
problem Predicting the analytic rank of elliptic curves over Q.
method Applied one-dimensional convolutional neural networks to Frobenius traces.
result High accuracy predictions for analytic rank across various conductors.
In this paper, we use the house price data ranging from January 2004 to October 2016 to predict the average house price of November and December in 2016 for each district in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. We apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to generate the baseline while LSTM networks to…
PCGs encompass a broader range of neural networks.
problem Understanding the broader scope of neural network models.
method Proving PCGs as a superset of feedforward neural networks.
result PCGs represent a wider class of neural network models.
CNN improves medium-range temperature forecasts with limited resources.
problem Limited computational resources for high-resolution temperature forecasts.
method CNN post-processing with ensemble NWP models for bias correction and spatial downscaling.
result High-resolution (5-km) surface temperature forecasts with lead times up to 5.5 days.
Efficient method predicts plausible probability ranges for credal sets.
problem Computational complexity in training credal predictors for complex models.
method Grounded in relative likelihood, decalibration technique.
result Yields credal sets with strong performance across diverse tasks.
Proposes a new method to measure epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Measuring epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks for out-of-distribution detection.
method Proposes measuring disagreement between logits and their pre-softmax counterparts as an epistemic uncertainty measure.
result Proposed epistemic uncertainty scores outperform mutual information and equal predictive entropy performance.
Marginalising out uncertain quantities within the internal representations or parameters of neural networks is of central importance for a wide range of learning techniques, such as empirical, variational or full Bayesian methods. We set out to generalise fast dropout (Wang & Manning, 2013) to cover a wider variety of …
Time series forecasting is ubiquitous in the modern world. Applications range from health care to astronomy, and include climate modelling, financial trading and monitoring of critical engineering equipment. To offer value over this range of activities, models must not only provide accurate forecasts, but also quantify…
Autoregressive flow models can perform causal discovery and inference tasks.
problem Causal inference tasks such as causal discovery and interventional predictions.
method Using autoregressive flow models to estimate causal directions and make predictions.
result Autoregressive flows can accurately perform causal inference tasks without restrictive assumptions.
Study validates Lillo-Mike-Farmer model predicting financial market long-range correlations.
problem Quantifying long-range correlations in financial markets.
method Analyzed nine years of market data to classify traders as order-splitting or random, measured metaorder-length distributions, and compared to LMF model predictions.
result Agreement between LMF model predictions and actual data, validating the model.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.