Measures three types of noise in LLM evaluations.
problem Separating signal from noise in LLM experiments.
method Defined and measured three types of noise: prediction, data, and total noise. Proposed the all-pairs paired method for statistical power.
result Total noise level is characteristic and predictable across all model pairs.
Study robustness of conformal prediction to label noise in regression and classification.
problem Robustness of conformal prediction to label noise in regression and classification.
method Characterized robustness of conformal prediction for both regression and classification problems, extending theory to control general loss functions.
result Conformal prediction and risk-controlling techniques can achieve conservative risk over clean ground truth labels with noisy labels.
Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP) calibrates CP for noisy labels.
problem Calibrating Conformal Prediction with noisy labels.
method Estimate conformal threshold from noisy labels using uniform noise coverage guarantee.
result Finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise remains effective in high-class tasks.
Study examines how noise in training data affects classification of outliers.
problem Impact of label noise on classification of outlier observations.
method Investigates BCOPS algorithm with synthetic and real datasets.
result Noise in training data significantly impacts model performance for outlier classification.
New algorithm speeds up RNN time series prediction by filtering noise.
problem Predicting smooth trajectories from noisy time series data.
method Analyzed RNN dynamics to propose an efficient noise filtering algorithm.
result Significant speedup in predictive process without accuracy loss.
FAL improves formation resistivity prediction from cased boreholes with noise resistance.
problem Noise and high-frequency disaster in predicting formation resistivity from cased boreholes.
method Frequency-aware framework and temporal anti-noise block for LSTM.
result FAL achieves a 24.3% improvement in R2 over LSTM, reaching R2=0.91.
Graph neural networks struggle with structural noise.
problem Robustness of graph neural networks to structural noise.
method Controlled experiments with a representative GNN model.
result Graph neural networks are not robust to structural noise.
Bayesian Deep Noise Neural Network (B-DeepNoise) estimates predictive densities and uncertainty.
problem Estimating predictive densities and uncertainty in deep neural networks.
method Extends random noise to all hidden layers, using Gibbs sampling for posterior computation.
result Superior performance in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
This work introduces a noise-adaptive conformal inference method for better prediction sets in noisy data.
problem Real-world complications like random label noise limit the effectiveness of conformal inference.
method An adaptive conformal inference method capable of handling deviations from exchangeability.
result Informative prediction sets with tight marginal coverage guarantees in noisy data.
We consider the prediction of weak effects in a multiple-output regression setup, when covariates are expected to explain a small amount, less than ≈1, of the variance of the target variables. To facilitate the prediction of the weak effects, we constrain our model structure by introducing a novel Bayesian ap…
Introduces CCR for constructing confidence regions from conformal predictions.
problem Challenges in constructing confidence regions for model parameters.
method Combines conformal prediction intervals for model outputs to establish confidence regions for parameters under minimal assumptions.
result Valid coverage guarantees for finite sample regime, applicable to various model types.
Improved stock return prediction model handles noise and non-stationarity.
problem Predicting stock returns with robustness to noise and non-stationarity.
method Extended AROW algorithm to handle synchronous mini-batch updates and applied it to stock return prediction.
result The new model outperforms classical approaches in backtesting on S\&P500 stocks.
New predictive bandit model with noise for better decision making.
problem Optimizing decisions with limited information and noise.
method Introduced predictive bandits, derived regret bounds, and developed algorithms.
result Developed algorithms matching theoretical regret bounds.
Improved BO algorithms reduce prediction error under Gaussian noise.
problem Reducing prediction error in Bayesian optimization with Gaussian noise.
method Established new prediction error bounds for Gaussian process under frequentist setting.
result Proved improved convergence rates of cumulative regret for GP-UCB and GP-TS.
Study shows HFT benefits large traders under certain conditions.
problem Influence of high-frequency traders (HFTs) on large traders.
method Analyzes the impact of HFT front-running on large traders under different conditions.
result HFT benefits large traders when there is high-speed noise trading and vague HFT predictions.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
Gaussian processes are improved to account for input noise in earth observation.
problem Accurate error assessment in earth observation models.
method Propose a GP model that propagates input noise through the pipeline.
result Improved error representation in temperature predictions from infrared data.
This paper connects noise injection to Bayesian inference for neural networks, improving model uncertainty.
problem Improving the reliability and confidence of neural network predictions through uncertainty quantification.
method Introducing noise into neural network parameters during training and inference to estimate prediction uncertainty.
result The MCNI method outperforms baseline models in regression and classification tasks.
Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction improves reliability of quantum machine learning predictions.
problem Quantum machine learning lacks robust uncertainty quantification methods.
method Adaptive Conformal Inference applied to quantum conformal prediction to maintain validity over time.
result AQCP achieves target coverage levels and is more stable than standard quantum conformal prediction.
This research improves deep neural networks for parameter identification and prediction in stochastic Volterra integral equations.
problem Parameter identification and prediction in Volterra integral equations driven by Gaussian noise.
method Improved deep neural networks framework that incorporates inter-output relationships into the loss function.
result The framework enhances parameter estimation accuracy and provides accurate solutions for modeling stochastic systems.
Improved deep neural network generalization through noise resilience.
problem Understanding and predicting generalization error of deep neural networks.
method Noise resilience measures to predict generalization error.
result Secured 5th position in the PGDL competition at NeurIPS 2020.
Proposes DRIG for robust predictions using noise interventions.
problem Developing robust prediction models against distribution shifts.
method Distributional Robustness via Invariant Gradients (DRIG) exploiting general noise interventions.
result DRIG yields robust predictions among a data-dependent class of distribution shifts.
Self-supervised method predicts clean signal and noise distribution from noisy images.
problem Blind denoising and noise estimation in biomedical images with limited clean data.
method Two neural networks jointly predict clean signal and noise distribution from noisy observations.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on six biomedical image datasets.
Bayesian approach improves crowdsourcing predictions.
problem Estimating continuous labels from crowdsource workers.
method Variational Bayesian technique for worker noise models.
result Bayesian approaches significantly outperform non-Bayesian methods.
In low light or short-exposure photography the image is often corrupted by noise. While longer exposure helps reduce the noise, it can produce blurry results due to the object and camera motion. The reconstruction of a noise-less image is an ill posed problem. Recent approaches for image denoising aim to predict kernel…
Neural networks estimate time-varying parameters in AR(p) models with different noise types.
problem Forecasting time-dependent parameters in AR(p) processes with varying noise.
method Deep learning for time-varying coefficients, Gaussian and Laplace noise models.
result Simple model with time-varying parameters can effectively forecast complex dynamics.
In presence of sparse noise we propose kernel regression for predicting output vectors which are smooth over a given graph. Sparse noise models the training outputs being corrupted either with missing samples or large perturbations. The presence of sparse noise is handled using appropriate use of ℓ1-norm along-wi…
New method bounds hardware noise without assumptions.
problem Estimating hardware noise without assumptions.
method Machine Learning and Conformal Prediction.
result Theoretical upper bounds of fidelity.
This work improves structured prediction by learning the balance between signal and random noise.
problem Structured prediction with random perturbations.
method Learning the variance of randomized structured predictors to balance signal and noise.
result Learning the balance improves structured prediction effectiveness.
Study improves dynamic PT fleet optimization under noisy demand predictions.
problem Accurately predicting dynamic public transport demand for effective fleet management.
method Experimental case study in Copenhagen, using linear programming to optimize fleets.
result Optimized fleet performance is mainly affected by noise distribution skew and large errors.
Cryptocurrency time-series predictability is low, resembling Brownian noise.
problem Low predictability of cryptocurrency exchange rates.
method Complexity and model predictions of Litecoin, Binance Coin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP exchange rates.
result Simpler models outperform complex ones in cryptocurrency forecasting.
Self-adaptive training improves deep learning robustness.
problem Improving deep learning performance on corrupted data.
method Dynamic correction of problematic labels using model predictions.
result Self-adaptive training significantly improves generalization over ERM under various levels of noise.
Noise in imputed values corrects biases in machine learning models.
problem Systematic biases in imputed values affect downstream analyses.
method Introducing noise to imputed values to correct biases.
result Noise-corrected imputation methods produce unbiased estimates.
Introduces TPV to analyze model robustness without labels.
problem Analyzing post-training robustness of machine learning models.
method Parameter perturbations and test prediction variance (TPV) as a unifying framework.
result TPV connects various perturbations under a single lens, providing insights into model stability.
FEDMD-NFDP improves federated learning privacy without sacrificing performance.
problem Privacy leakage in federated learning when sharing predictions.
method Noise-Free Differential Privacy (NFDP) applied to federated model distillation.
result FEDMD-NFDP achieves comparable utility and privacy guarantees.
Study improves model robustness in noisy datasets.
problem Instance-specific label noise in robust classification tasks.
method Coordinated Sparse Recovery (CSR) method introduces a collaboration matrix and confidence weights to reduce generalization error.
result CSR and CSR+ significantly reduce generalization error compared to existing methods.
Diffusion-VAE tackles multi-step stock price prediction with stochastic noise.
problem Challenges in multi-step stock price prediction due to stochasticity and target price sequence.
method Combines hierarchical VAE and diffusion probabilistic techniques for seq2seq stock prediction.
result D-Va model outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in prediction accuracy and variance.
Confidence-based filtering reveals latent structure in diffusion models.
problem Unclear latent structure in diffusion models.
method Confidence scores from a classifier.
result Class-relevant latent structure emerges under confidence-based filtering.
DRFLM improves federated learning by handling data heterogeneity and noise.
problem Data heterogeneity and noise in federated learning.
method Distributionally robust optimization and mixup techniques.
result Enhanced global model prediction accuracy through robust optimization and local mixup.
The paper defines the time function of stock prices using a mathematical model.
problem Understanding the movement and predictability of stock prices over time.
method Empirical evidence and mathematical modeling of white noise.
result Derives auto-correlation function, displacement formula, and power spectral density of stock price movement.
CMRM improves robustness in noisy label settings without requiring privileged knowledge.
problem Learning with noisy labels without privileged knowledge.
method Conformal Margin Risk Minimization (CMRM) framework.
result CMRM consistently improves accuracy and reduces mislabeling under various noise conditions.
We study a seemingly unexpected and relatively less understood overfitting aspect of a fundamental tool in sparse linear modeling - best subset selection, which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to a constraint on the number of nonzero coefficients. While the best subset selection procedure is often perceiv…
A new framework for PPLS combines noise estimation, optimization, and calibration.
problem Probabilistic PLS models need interpretable latent factors and calibrated uncertainty.
method End-to-end pipeline combining noise estimation, constrained optimization, and prediction calibration.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and native calibrated uncertainty across benchmarks.
We study the robustness of classifiers to various kinds of random noise models. In particular, we consider noise drawn uniformly from the ℓ_p ball for p∈[1,∞] and Gaussian noise with an arbitrary covariance matrix. We characterize this robustness to random noise in terms of the distance to the decisio…
New model reveals balance crucial for robust neural coding.
problem Efficient neural coding in noisy, chaotic networks.
method Analytical model of balanced predictive coding with dissociated balance and weight disorder.
result Superclassical scaling in coding accuracy, independent of balance and weight disorder.
Human motion prediction is a stochastic process: Given an observed sequence of poses, multiple future motions are plausible. Existing approaches to modeling this stochasticity typically combine a random noise vector with information about the previous poses. This combination, however, is done in a deterministic manner,…
RID-Noise improves robust design under noisy conditions using neural networks.
problem Design robustness under noisy environments.
method Robust Inverse Design under Noise (RID-Noise) using conditional invertible neural networks (cINNs).
result RID-Noise achieves more effective robust design compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New method tackles label noise on imbalanced datasets by considering class-specific uncertainty.
problem Label noise and class imbalance in imbalanced datasets.
method Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty-aware class-specific noise modeling.
result Proposed ULC framework improves performance on imbalanced datasets.