Clinical models can be unstable, leading to unreliable predictions.
problem Stability of clinical prediction models developed using statistical or machine learning methods.
method Simulation and case studies of statistical and machine learning approaches to show instability in model predictions.
result Model instability often leads to miscalibration of predictions in new data.
A central area of research in nonlinear science is the study of instabilities that drive the emergence of extreme events. Unfortunately, experimental techniques for measuring such phenomena often provide only partial characterization. For example, real-time studies of instabilities in nonlinear fibre optics frequently …
A data-driven approach predicts morphological development under structural instability.
problem Understanding and predicting spatiotemporal complexities of morphogenesis under structural instability.
method Machine-learning framework based on physical modeling of morphogenesis.
result Identification of key bifurcation characteristics and prediction of history-dependent development.
The paper explores how word embeddings affect the stability of downstream NLP models.
problem Small changes in training data can cause significant changes in model predictions.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis of embedding instability, including the introduction of eigenspace instability measure.
result Increasing embedding memory can reduce the disagreement in predictions by 5% to 37%.
New diagnostics detect variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare.
problem Variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare, leading to unreliable treatment decisions.
method Proposed evaluation framework using empirical prediction interval width and empirical decision flip rate diagnostics.
result Randomness in optimization and initialization can lead to substantial individual-level variability in risk estimates, affecting clinical decisions.
Bayesian neural network predicts planetary instability.
problem Predicting planetary instability in compact systems.
method Novel Bayesian neural network trained on raw orbital elements.
result Model predicts planetary instability times with high accuracy and robust generalization.
Predictive geometric models deliver excellent results for many Machine Learning use cases. Despite their undoubted performance, neural predictive algorithms can show unexpected degrees of instability and variance, particularly when applied to large datasets. We present an approach to measure changes in geometric models…
Method predicts disease outbreaks using search logs, overcoming instability.
problem Predicting disease outbreaks from search logs is challenging due to short-term and long-term instability.
method Seasonal-adjustment method decomposes logs into seasonal, trend, and irregular components; feature selection method selects relevant search terms.
result Proposed method outperforms comparative methods in prediction accuracy for seven of ten diseases.
Graph auto-encoders predict stock market instability by measuring graph structure changes.
problem Forecasting stock market instability and volatility.
method Use graph auto-encoders to reconstruct graph structure and measure changes.
result Higher GAE reconstruction error correlates with higher volatility.
The paper explores how AI trading agents' similar information representation can cause financial market instability.
problem Systemic instability in AI-dominated financial markets due to similar information representation.
method Structural multi-agent market model with two-layer decision architecture for AI agents.
result Representation homogeneity can lead to systemic instability in financial markets.
Investment strategies in financial markets can lead to instability due to market impacts.
problem Market impacts make it impossible for investors to accurately optimize their strategies.
method Built an agent-based model with technical analysis strategy agents to investigate optimization instability.
result Investment strategies' parameters never converged but continued to change, leading to unstable market price evolution.
We improve current instability-based methods for the selection of the number of clusters k in cluster analysis by developing a normalized cluster instability measure that corrects for the distribution of cluster sizes, a previously unaccounted driver of cluster instability. We show that our normalized instability mea…
This paper examines how investors mislearn factor risk premia under structural breaks in a misspecified Bayesian framework.
problem Investors' mislearning of factor risk premia under structural breaks in asset pricing models.
method Proposes a minimal Bayesian framework to study how investors learn under a misspecified model that underestimates structural breaks.
result Elevated mislearning is associated with stronger long-horizon returns and Sharpe ratios, consistent with an equilibrium premium for acute model uncertainty.
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions pr…
New method selects data points for better model performance.
problem Balancing input coverage and model utility in selective prediction.
method Study training dynamics to reject inputs with unstable predictions.
result State-of-the-art selective prediction performance achieved without model modifications.
Modeling HFT interactions reveals market instability.
problem Market instability caused by HFT dynamic coupling.
method Developed a recurrence relations framework to model HFT interactions.
result Unexpected latency and feedback can trigger market instability.
New proof of instability for certain Einstein metrics.
problem Einstein metrics on specific 4-manifolds.
method Proving instability of conformally Kähler, Einstein metrics.
result Proven instability of certain Einstein metrics.
Study stability and instability of Ricci-flat metrics under generalized Ricci flow.
problem Stability and instability of Ricci-flat metrics under Ricci flow.
method Analysis of generalized Ricci flow for Ricci-flat metrics and vanishing 3-forms.
result Dynamical stability and instability results for Ricci-flat metrics and vanishing 3-forms.
Some exotic compact objects possess evanescent ergosurfaces: timelike submanifolds on which a Killing vector field, which is timelike everywhere else, becomes null. We show that any manifold possessing an evanescent ergosurface but no event horizon exhibits a linear instability of a peculiar kind: either there are solu…
Interval Neural Networks detect instabilities in image reconstructions.
problem Detecting instabilities in deep learning image reconstructions.
method Employed uncertainty quantification methods with Interval Neural Networks.
result Interval Neural Networks effectively reveal image reconstruction instabilities.
New research shows hyperbolic embeddings are useful for global consistency tasks in graphs.
problem The usefulness of hyperbolic representations in graph learning tasks.
method Computed hyperbolic embeddings for node classification and link prediction tasks, addressing optimization issues at zero curvature.
result Hyperbolic embeddings are more effective for tasks requiring global consistency, while Euclidean models are superior for other tasks.
Note on instabilities in super-time-stepping methods for Heston model.
problem Instabilities in super-time-stepping methods applied to Heston model.
method Exploration of explicit super-time-stepping schemes (RK-Chebyshev, RK-Legendre) for Heston model.
result Relevance of stability remarks beyond super-time-stepping schemes.
New method stabilizes deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
problem Stability issues in deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
method Bootstrapping-based regularisation framework embedded in deep neural networks.
result Improved prediction stability across multiple datasets.
Network geometry measures predict market instability.
problem Predicting financial market instability using network geometry.
method Discrete Ricci curvatures to capture network fragility.
result Different geometric measures distinguish normal and crash periods.
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual unpredictable fluctuations. This classical view of markets absorbing information a…
Binary perceptron's instability linked to replica symmetry breaking.
problem Understanding the relationship between algorithmic instability and replica symmetry breaking in binary perceptron learning.
method Established the connection between algorithmic instability and replica symmetry breaking by comparing the instability condition around the fixed point to the instability for breaking the replica symmetric solution of the free energy function.
result The instability condition around the algorithmic fixed point is identical to the instability for breaking the replica symmetric saddle point solution of the free energy function.
Study uses image analysis to predict MSI status in tumors.
problem Challenges in distinguishing MSI from its counterpart.
method Interpretable pathological image analysis strategies using Haematoxylin and eosin-stained images.
result Strategies achieve decent performance in MSI prediction.
The study examines stability and instability of Poincaré-Einstein metrics using Ricci flow.
problem Stability and instability of Poincaré-Einstein metrics.
method Variant of expander entropy for asymptotically hyperbolic manifolds, local positive mass theorem, volume comparison.
result Characterization of stability and instability in terms of local positive mass theorem and volume comparison.
DoubleEnsemble improves financial predictions by selecting key features and reweighting samples.
problem Overfitting and instability in financial data analysis.
method Sample reweighting and feature selection using learning trajectory and shuffling.
result DoubleEnsemble outperforms baseline methods in financial prediction tasks.
Study shows instability of naked singularities in perfect fluid models.
problem Instability of naked singularities in Einstein equations coupled with isothermal perfect fluid.
method Investigated spherically symmetric self-similar naked singularities under C1,α perturbations of an external massless scalar field. result Spherically symmetric self-similar naked singularities are unstable to trapped surface formation.
Study on spectral stability of Riemannian coverings.
problem Stability of eigenvalues in Riemannian coverings.
method Analysis of Laplacian eigenvalues under finite coverings.
result Necessary conditions for spectral stability or instability.
Study shows instability of naked singularities in scalar field models.
problem Stability of naked singularities in spherically symmetric Einstein-Scalar field systems.
method Analysis of a family of incoming null cones becoming increasingly singular.
result Naked singularities are unstable to black hole formation under certain perturbations.
We compare two models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Our main results show that the divergence between the two models increases in highly correlated, volatile, and large markets, b…
Neural interaction discoveries can be real or artifacts of model flexibility.
problem Identifying real neural interactions from data.
method Using a multiplicative-gating extension of neural additive vector autoregression.
result Effective rank of the joint lag-block covariance predicts interaction recoverability.
Study shows instability of certain MOTSs with continuous symmetry.
problem Stability of MOTSs with continuous symmetry.
method Analysis of initial data sets with continuous symmetry and non-preserved MOTSs.
result Exotic MOTSs are unstable except in exceptional cases.
The paper studies stability and instability of minimal submanifolds in complex Einstein spaces.
problem Stability and instability of minimal submanifolds in complex Einstein spaces.
method Computation of index and nullity, investigation of stability, and algorithm for higher eigenvalues.
result Criterion for instability of minimal submanifolds in some cases.
The study examines the stability of Einstein metrics on Sasaki Einstein and nearly parallel G2 manifolds.
problem Linear instability of Einstein metrics on Sasaki Einstein and nearly parallel G2 manifolds.
method Analysis of the second and third Betti numbers for Sasaki Einstein and nearly parallel G2 manifolds.
result Positive second and third Betti numbers lead to linear instability for the respective manifolds.
Paper extends Simons theorem to F-Yang-Mills connections for instability.
problem Tackles instability of F-Yang-Mills connections. method Extends Simons theorem to F-Yang-Mills connections using Kobayashi-Ohnita-Takeuchi's method. result Derives a sufficient condition for instability of non-flat F-Yang-Mills connections. In this short article, we improve the dynamical stability and instability results for Ricci-flat metrics under Ricci flow proved by Sesum and Haslhofer, getting rid of the integrability assumption.
Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
We extend in a minimal way the stylized model introduced in in "Tipping Points in Macroeconomic Agent Based Models" [JEDC 50, 29-61 (2015)], with the aim of investigating the role and efficacy of monetary policy of a `Central Bank' that sets the interest rate such as to steer the economy towards a prescribed inflation …
The paper analyzes numerical instability in variational flows and proposes a diagnostic method.
problem Numerical instability in variational flows affects sampling, density evaluation, and ELBO estimation.
method Treated variational flows as dynamical systems, used shadowing theory for theoretical guarantees, and developed a diagnostic procedure.
result Despite numerical instability, results from variational flows can be accurate enough for practical applications.
Proposes a continuous flow model to understand and control instability in gradient descent for deep learning.
problem Understanding and controlling the instability of gradient descent in deep learning.
method Introduces the Principal Flow (PF), a continuous time flow that approximates gradient descent dynamics.
result The PF captures divergent and oscillatory behaviors of gradient descent, including escaping local minima and saddle points.
In this paper, we study stability for harmonic foliations on locally conformal Kähler manifolds with complex leaves. We also discuss instability for harmonic foliations on compact submanifolds immersed in Euclidean spaces and compact homogeneous spaces.
Study on instability of extreme Reissner-Nordström spacetime perturbations.
problem Linear stability of gravitational and electromagnetic perturbations in extreme Reissner-Nordström spacetime.
method Extends Giorgi's framework to prove instability results for a set of gauge invariant quantities along the event horizon.
result Proves decay, non-decay, and polynomial blow-up estimates for certain quantities along the event horizon, depending on the number of derivatives.
Dual-objective GANs reduce training instabilities with tunable α-loss parameters.
problem Training instabilities in Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs).
method Introduce (αD,αG)-GANs with dual objectives modeled using α-loss. result Upper bounds on estimation error show improved performance under certain conditions.
We develop a general framework for the description of instabilities on soap films using the Björling representation of minimal surfaces. The construction is naturally geometric and the instability has the interpretation as being specified by its amplitude and transverse gradient along any curve lying in the minimal sur…
Study uses DNM theory to detect early warning signals of market instability.
problem Detecting early warning signals of financial market instability.
method Applying Dynamical Network Marker (DNM) theory to trading data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
result Early warning signals of large price movements can be detected on a daily time scale.